The Portland Trail Blazers host the Los Angeles Lakers at Moda Center on Saturday, Jan. 17 at 7:00 PM.
The Lakers come in at 24-15 as the No. 5 seed, while the Trail Blazers are 20-22 as the No. 9 seed.
Last time out, the Lakers got clipped by the Hornets 135-117, with Luka Doncic pouring 39 and the offense never finding a second gear.
The Trail Blazers just handled the Hawks 117-101 at home, powered by Shaedon Sharpe’s 24 points and a nice bench surge.
As for the season series, this is the first meeting, so it’s a clean slate.
On the star front, LeBron James is at 22.7 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 6.9 assists on 51.4% from the field this season. Luka Doncic has been the engine at 33.6 points per game, but he’s also the biggest swing piece on the injury report.
For the Trail Blazers, Deni Avdija has been on a heater at 26.1 points, 7.1 rebounds, and 6.9 assists, and Shaedon Sharpe is giving them 21.5 points per game.
This one matters because the Trail Blazers are trying to keep pressure on the play-in pack, and the Lakers are walking into a tough spot with real injury volatility.
Injury Report
Trail Blazers
Damian Lillard: Out (left Achilles tendon, injury management)
Scoot Henderson: Out (left hamstring tear)
Kris Murray: Out (lumbar strain)
Matisse Thybulle: Out (right knee, tendinopathy)
Blake Wesley: Out (right foot, fracture)
Deni Avdija: Doubtful (lower back strain)
Jerami Grant: Questionable (left Achilles, injury management)
Jrue Holiday: Questionable (right calf, injury management)
Lakers
Luka Doncic: Out (left groin soreness)
Austin Reaves: Out (left calf strain)
Adou Thiero: Out (right MCL sprain)
Deandre Ayton: Questionable (left knee soreness)
Jaxson Hayes: Questionable (left hamstring tendinopathy)
Why The Trail Blazers Have The Advantage
The first thing is volume and chaos. The Trail Blazers play at 115.8 points per game, and they’re top-heavy in shot creation even when things get messy. They also rebound at 45.1 per game, and that matters against a Lakers team that’s down at 41.5 boards a night.
If Avdija can go at all, it changes the math. He’s been a jumbo initiator for them, and that’s how the Trail Blazers have stayed functional when lineups get weird. Even if he can’t, Sharpe’s 21.5 points per game gives them a steady scoring base, and their depth showed up last game when the bench swung it.
The sneaky edge is that the Trail Blazers can win the possession game. They’re not an efficient shooting team (44.7% overall, 33.9% from three), but they can manufacture extra shots with boards and pressure. If the Lakers are missing a true shot-creator without Doncic, those extra possessions can decide the night.
Why The Lakers Have The Advantage
The Lakers are still the cleaner offense when their main guys are upright. They’re at 116.5 points per game on 49.8% shooting, which is flat-out better shot quality than what the Trail Blazers usually generate.
LeBron is the stabilizer, and his line tells you why: 22.7 points and 6.9 assists, still creating good looks even when the spacing gets tight. If he’s active and aggressive, the Lakers can hunt weak links and turn this into a free-throws-and-layups type game.
And if Deandre Ayton plays, the Lakers have a simple path: punish the interior. Ayton is at 13.9 points, 8.7 rebounds, and 1.0 block while shooting 68.0% from the field, which is basically a cheat code if the Trail Blazers can’t keep him off the glass.
X-Factors
Jaxson Hayes becomes way more important if the Lakers are short on size, because his rim-running can create “free offense.” He’s at 6.3 points and 4.0 rebounds in 17.6 minutes, and the crazy part is the 76.6% shooting. If he’s available and flying, the Lakers can steal buckets without needing perfect half-court execution.
Ayton is the other swing, obviously. If he plays through the knee soreness and wins the paint, the Lakers can keep the game simple: defend, rebound, run. His efficiency is so high that even a modest usage night can tilt the matchup if he’s getting second-chance points.
For the Trail Blazers, Donovan Clingan is the tone-setter. He’s at 10.9 points, 10.7 rebounds, and 1.8 blocks, and that kind of rim protection can make LeBron think twice about living at the rim all night. If Clingan stays out of foul trouble, the Trail Blazers can stay big and control the glass.
Jrue Holiday is the organizer. He’s averaging 15.5 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 7.3 assists, and if he plays, the Trail Blazers’ offense looks way less random. This is the kind of matchup where one steady ball-handler can keep a team from coughing up a winnable game.
And yeah, Sharpe. When you’re missing stars, shot creation becomes the whole sport. His 21.5 points per game are the Trail Blazers’ best “we can survive anything” card, and if he gets hot early, the Lakers can’t just load up on one action all night.
Prediction
If Doncic is out and the Lakers are piecing it together, I’m leaning Trail Blazers at home. They’ve got more continuity in their current rotation, they’re coming off a confident win, and they can win the possession battle with rebounds and pressure.
Prediction: Trail Blazers 118, Lakers 112
