The Timberwolves host the Suns at Target Center on Tuesday, March 17, at 8:00 p.m. ET.
The Timberwolves enter at 41-27 and sixth in the West, with a 22-12 home record, while the Suns are 39-29 and seventh in the West. After Monday’s loss in Boston, the Suns are 17-15 on the road.
The Timberwolves are coming off a 116-103 loss to the Thunder, while the Suns just fell 120-112 to the Celtics. The Suns also lead the season series 2-0 after wins of 114-113 and 108-105, so this is a real swing game in the standings.
For the Timberwolves, Julius Randle becomes even more important with Anthony Edwards out. Randle is averaging 21.4 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 5.3 assists, while Rudy Gobert is at 11.0 points, 11.4 rebounds, and 1.7 assists.
For the Suns, Devin Booker is putting up 25.3 points, 6.1 assists, and 4.0 rebounds, and Jalen Green has added 14.1 points, 3.1 rebounds, and 2.2 assists in his Suns sample so far.
That is the shape of this matchup. The Timberwolves still have enough size and scoring to make this ugly, but the Suns have the best healthy closer on the floor and already have two wins in the matchup bank.
Injury Report
Timberwolves
Anthony Edwards: Out (right knee soreness)
Joan Beringer: Out (G League – On Assignment)
Enrique Freeman: Out (G League – Two-Way)
Julian Phillips: Out (G League – On Assignment)
Zyon Pullin: Out (G League – Two-Way)
Naz Reid: Available (right shoulder contusion)
Suns
Dillon Brooks: Out (left hand fracture)
Mark Williams: Out (left foot third metatarsal stress reaction)
Grayson Allen: Doubtful (left knee soreness)
Haywood Highsmith: Questionable (right knee injury management)
Why The Timberwolves Have The Advantage
The Timberwolves’ first edge is still physicality. Gobert gives them an automatic rebounding floor, Reid is available, and the Suns are still without Williams. In a game where the margins should be tight, the easiest way for the Timberwolves to survive Edwards being out is to own the paint, win second chances and make the Suns defend through contact instead of rhythm. That is still their cleanest path.
There is also a strong home-court argument. The Timberwolves are 22-12 at home, and the Suns are coming in on the second night of a back-to-back after losing in Boston. That matters because this game is likely to be decided by legs and execution late. If the Timberwolves can keep the pace under control and make this a more physical fourth-quarter game, the scheduling spot tilts their way.
And even without Edwards, the Timberwolves are not a dead offense. Randle can still function as a half-court hub, Reid can stretch the floor, and Donte DiVincenzo gives them another handler and pull-up threat. The problem is not whether they can score at all. It is whether they can score cleanly enough late. At home, with their frontcourt intact, I think they have a real chance to do that for long enough to stay in control.
Why The Suns Have The Advantage
The obvious starting point is the season series. The Suns are 2-0 against the Timberwolves, and both wins were close enough to matter. That tells you this is not some random stylistic fluke. The Suns have already shown they can survive this matchup, and that matters a lot more now that Edwards is out.
The second edge is the best healthy shot-maker in the game. Booker is coming off a 40-point night against the Celtics, and even in a loss, he looked like the one player most likely to own the final five minutes of a tight game. With Edwards sidelined, that late-game creation gap gets bigger. The Timberwolves may be sturdier inside, but the Suns have the more trustworthy perimeter closer.
There is also the recent Suns backcourt surge. Green has been playing better in this stretch, and Booker plus Green combined for 79 against the Pacers just a few days ago. Even if Green’s full-season average still looks modest, the recent form is what matters here. The Suns have had more real perimeter pop lately than the raw season line suggests.
X-Factors
Naz Reid is the clearest Timberwolves swing piece. He is averaging 13.7 points, 6.2 rebounds, and 2.3 assists while shooting 37.3% from three. Against a Suns team missing Williams, Reid matters because he can punish smaller lineups inside and also drag a big out to the arc. If he gives the Timberwolves efficient scoring off the frontcourt, this game gets a lot easier for Randle.
Donte DiVincenzo is the other key Timberwolves connector. He is posting 12.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 4.1 assists while shooting 38.9% from three. The Timberwolves need him to keep the ball moving, hit open threes, and create enough off the bounce so the offense does not become a Randle-only operation. If he is sharp, the Timberwolves can stay organized late.
Royce O’Neale is the Suns’ role guy who can quietly swing this. He is at 10.0 points, 4.9 rebounds, and 2.8 assists, and he is shooting 40.1% from three. In this matchup, his value is obvious. The Timberwolves are going to tilt extra help toward Booker, so O’Neale’s job is to punish overhelp, rebound from the wing, and keep the floor spaced.
Grayson Allen is the volatility piece if that knee lets him go. He averages 17.2 points, 3.0 rebounds, and 4.1 assists, and his availability matters because the Suns are already a little thin. If he plays and looks like himself, the Suns get one more real spacer and scorer. If he sits or looks limited, the offense leans even harder on Booker.
Prediction
This is tighter than it looks because the Timberwolves have the better scheduling spot, the better interior setup, and a real desperation angle at home. But Edwards being out is too big for me to ignore. The Suns already have the 2-0 season-series edge, Booker is the best healthy late-game scorer in the matchup, and the Timberwolves have dropped four of five. I think the Timberwolves make this a fight on the glass, but the Suns’ perimeter shot creation wins it late.
Prediction: Timberwolves 109, Suns 112
