The Timberwolves host the Thunder at Target Center on Thursday, January 29, at 9:30 PM ET.
The Thunder come in at 38-10 and sitting first in the West, while the Timberwolves are 29-19 and sixth in the West.
The Timberwolves just beat the Mavericks 118-105 behind Julius Randle’s 31 points, with Anthony Edwards adding 20 points, six rebounds, and six assists. The Thunder beat the Pelicans 104-95 last time out, led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s 29 points and a big two-way night from Chet Holmgren (20 points, 14 rebounds, five blocks).
These teams already saw each other on December 19, when the Timberwolves took a 112-107 win and handed the Thunder one of their few losses.
Star-wise, this is loud. Edwards is putting up 29.4 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 3.7 assists, while Randle is at 22.4 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 5.4 assists.
For the Thunder, Gilgeous-Alexander is living in the paint and at the line with 32.0 points, 6.2 assists, and 4.4 rebounds per game, and Holmgren is giving them 17.9 points, 8.7 rebounds, and 2.0 blocks.
This one matters because it’s a real measuring-stick game. The Timberwolves want to prove that December wasn’t a one-off, and the Thunder want payback while shorthanded.
Injury Report
Timberwolves
Terrence Shannon Jr: Out (left foot abductor hallucis strain)
Thunder
Alex Caruso: Out (right adductor strain)
Ajay Mitchell: Out (abdominal strain)
Thomas Sorber: Out (right ACL surgical recovery)
Nikola Topic: Out (surgical recovery)
Cason Wallace: Questionable (left hip soreness)
Jalen Williams: Out (right hamstring strain)
Why The Timberwolves Have The Advantage
The first thing is simple: this matchup already went their way once, and it wasn’t a fluke finish. They scored 112 and won a close, physical game, which matters because the Thunder thrive when games get scrambled.
Offensively, the Timberwolves can absolutely score with anyone. They’re at 119.0 points per game on 48.1% from the field and 37.1% from three, and that shooting profile is exactly how you keep a defense honest.
If they can keep the turnovers from getting silly, they’ve got enough shot-making to force the Thunder to guard for the full clock.
The second edge is how many different ways they can hurt you. Edwards is the obvious hammer, but Randle’s playmaking is the annoying part of this matchup because he can pull bigs into decisions at the elbows and punish switches.
If the Timberwolves get downhill early, they can tilt the whistle and slow the Thunder’s transition game.
And being at Target Center helps when you’re trying to survive the Thunder’s runs. The Thunder are going to stack stops, that’s what they do. The Timberwolves’ job is to not panic when the game gets ugly for three minutes.
Why The Thunder Have The Advantage
This is the part where the numbers start yelling. The Thunder are scoring 120.5 points per game while allowing only 107.65, and that opponent scoring number is flat-out elite. They also take care of the ball better than almost anyone, just 12.2 turnovers per game, which is a big deal against a team that wants to speed you up.
They’re also more efficient than people assume for a defense-first contender. 49.0% from the field as a team is clean, and when you combine that with their ability to create extra possessions (9.8 steals per game), they win the math battle constantly.
And then there’s the obvious cheat code: Gilgeous-Alexander. Thirty-two a night with 6.2 assists is already ridiculous, but what makes him terrifying in this specific matchup is how he can turn a “pretty good” defensive possession into two free throws and a sigh. If the Timberwolves over-help, he picks them apart. If they stay home, he cooks his matchup.
Yes, they’re missing Jalen Williams and Caruso, and that matters. But the Thunder’s identity travels because it’s built on process: force tough shots, rebound enough, don’t turn it over, and let their star close.
X-Factors
Naz Reid is the Timberwolves’ swing piece. He’s at 14.5 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 2.5 assists, and when his pick-and-pop threes are falling, it drags rim protection away from the basket. If Reid wins his minutes, the Timberwolves can survive the stretches where the Thunder try to win the game with defense and pace instead of half-court shot-making.
Donte DiVincenzo is another one. He’s giving them 13.3 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 4.2 assists while hitting 38.1% from three, and he’s exactly the kind of guard who can punish over-help with quick-trigger shots. If the Thunder load up on Edwards, DiVincenzo has to make them pay, no hesitation.
Jaden McDaniels is the quiet pressure point. He’s up to 14.6 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 2.8 assists on 50.6% shooting and 42.2% from three, which means you can’t treat him like a non-shooter anymore. If he knocks down corner threes and holds up defensively, the Timberwolves’ lineup versatility gets way more dangerous.
For the Thunder, Isaiah Joe is the instant-heat guy. He’s at 9.7 points in 20 minutes and hits 39.9% from three, and that’s the profile that flips a close game fast. If the Timberwolves help one step too far, Joe is the punishment.
Luguentz Dort is all about disruption. The box score looks modest at 8.8 points, 3.9 rebounds, and 1.2 assists, but his value is forcing stars into uncomfortable shots and burning clock. If Dort can make Edwards work for everything without fouling, the Thunder’s defense gets to play on its terms.
And keep an eye on Isaiah Hartenstein’s physicality. He’s putting up 11.2 points, 10.4 rebounds, and 3.0 assists, and if he controls the glass, the Timberwolves lose one of their easiest ways to stay attached on the scoreboard.
Prediction
The Timberwolves have the firepower to make this sweaty, and the fact they already beat the Thunder once is real. But I’m still leaning Thunder because the defense is too consistent and the turnover edge is the kind of thing that decides good-team games.
Prediction: Thunder 112, Timberwolves 107
