The Knicks host the Spurs on Sunday, March 1, at 1:00 PM ET on ABC.
Coming off a 127-98 win over the Bucks, the Knicks are on a roll at 38-22, running 3rd in the East, while the Spurs just beat the Nets 126-110 to extend their win streak to 11 and their record to 43-16, the second seed in the West.
The season series has already had real stakes: the Knicks won the Cup final over the Spurs in December, but the Spurs took the regular-season meeting on December 31, 134-132.
Jalen Brunson is averaging 26.7 points, 3.4 rebounds, and 6.1 assists while shooting 47.1% from the field and 37.7% from three. Karl-Anthony Towns is putting up 19.9 points, 11.7 rebounds, and 2.8 assists while shooting 47.7% from the field and 37.0% from three.
Victor Wembanyama is at 23.7 points, 11.2 rebounds, and 2.9 assists while shooting 50.1% from the field and 34.7% from three, plus 2.8 blocks per game. De’Aaron Fox is producing 19.0 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 6.2 assists while shooting 48.4% from the field and 35.1% from three.
Injury Report
Knicks
Miles McBride: Out (pelvic core muscle surgery)
Pacome Dadiet: Questionable (G League – On Assignment)
Trey Jemison III: Questionable (G League – Two-Way)
Dillon Jones: Questionable (G League – Two-Way)
Kevin McCullar Jr.: Questionable (G League – Two-Way)
Spurs
Mason Plumlee: Out (return to competition reconditioning)
Harrison Ingram: Out (G League – Two-Way)
David Jones Garcia: Out (G League – Two-Way)
Emanuel Miller: Out (G League – Two-Way)
Why The Knicks Have The Advantage
The Knicks have the more efficient half-court offense on the season-long profile. They are third in offensive rating at 118.3 points per 100 possessions and seventh in effective field goal percentage at 55.4%. That blend of shot quality and shot-making is usually what holds up best at home.
The Knicks also create extra possessions. They are seventh in offensive rebound percentage at 32.4%, which is a direct way to add points against an elite defense without needing a heater from three.
Ball security is another quiet edge. The Knicks are eighth in turnover percentage at 13.7% and seventh in assist-to-turnover ratio at 2.0. If they keep the Spurs out of transition and force a half-court game, their offense tends to stay in rhythm.
Why The Spurs Have The Advantage
The Spurs’ foundation is defense. They are third in defensive rating at 110.4 points allowed per 100 possessions and fourth in net rating at +6.9. That is the kind of baseline that travels, because it does not require perfect shooting to win.
The Spurs are also strong on the other end. They are seventh in offensive rating at 117.2, which keeps their floor high even when opponents play physical and slow the game down.
They also avoid the mistake runs that flip road games. The Spurs are fifth in turnover percentage at 13.6% and ninth in assist-to-turnover ratio at 2.0, so they tend to get a shot up and make opponents guard multiple actions.
X-Factors
OG Anunoby is giving the Knicks 16.2 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 2.3 assists while shooting 35.9% from three. If Anunoby is hitting catch-and-shoot threes, the Knicks’ spacing looks like a top-tier unit, and the efficiency numbers show up quickly.
Josh Hart brings 11.9 points, 7.4 rebounds, and 5.2 assists. With Miles McBride out, Hart’s rebounding and playmaking become even more important because he can create offense without the Knicks needing to spam actions.
Mikal Bridges is averaging 15.6 points, 4.1 rebounds, and 4.0 assists. If Bridges is turning closeouts into paint touches and quick passes, the Knicks’ offense usually stays out of late-clock isolations.
Julian Champagnie is averaging 11.4 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 1.5 assists. If Champagnie is making threes at volume, the Spurs’ spacing opens up, and their offensive rating tends to spike.
Devin Vassell is scoring 14.4 points per game to go with 3.8 rebounds and 2.4 assists. Vassell is the Spurs’ key shot-maker on the wing, and his scoring can decide whether the Spurs’ offense gets to its number in a physical game.
Stephon Castle has produced 16.6 points, 4.9 rebounds, and 6.8 assists a night. Castle’s playmaking is the swing because it can keep the ball moving against set defenses, which is how the Spurs avoid empty possessions late.
Prediction
I’m leaning Spurs because the two most stable indicators here point that way: third in defensive rating and fourth in net rating. The Knicks can win this game with their offense and home control, but the Spurs’ ability to defend without fouling and play low-turnover basketball is usually the difference in these spots.
Prediction: Knicks 112, Spurs 115
