The Phoenix Suns host the Portland Trail Blazers at the Footprint Center on Tuesday, April 14, at 9:00 p.m. ET in the West’s 7-8 Play-In Tournament game.
The Suns ended the season 45-37 and seventh in the West with a 25-16 home record, while the Blazers finished the regular season with a 42-40 record, going 18-23 on the road. The regular season series stands 2-1 in Phoenix’s favor.
The Suns are led by Devin Booker, who wrapped up another potential All-NBA season by averaging 26.1 points, 3.9 rebounds, and 6.0 assists over the campaign. The Suns have multiple options around Booker, but the most reliable one for this matchup might be Jalen Green, who’s averaging 17.8 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 2.8 assists in 32 games despite being riddled with injuries in his first season with the franchise.
The Trail Blazers have surprised everyone by ending the season as the No. 8 seed. Their breakout was powered by forward Deni Avdija, who averaged 24.2 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 6.7 assists in a breakout season where he was named an All-Star. Second-year center Donovan Clingan’s emergence further accelerated their timeline. averaging 12.1 points, 11.6 rebounds, and 1.7 blocks as a key contributor this season.
The winner of this game will seal a spot in the NBA Playoffs as the No. 7 seed in the West. Their reward will be a matchup with the No. 2 seed San Antonio Spurs, while the loser will face the winner of the 9-10 Play-In game between the LA Clippers and Golden State Warriors to hopefully secure the No. 8 seed and make it into the Playoffs.
Injury Report
Suns
Grayson Allen: Questionable (hamstring)
Trail Blazers
Jerami Grant: Questionable (calf)
Damian Lillard: Out (ankle)
Why The Suns Have The Advantage
The Suns proved themselves over the season as the better team by defeating the Blazers twice in three matchups. Phoenix’s offense was too much to overcome in those wins, as they scored 257 points over those two games while shooting 97-195 (49.7 FG%) from the field and 34-81 (41.9 3P%) from three. We would say those games were aberrations if the Suns’ overall stats on the season didn’t back up the fact that they’re a consistent and elite offense this season.
The Suns have a 114.2 offensive rating and score 112.6 points per game. They rank fifth in three-point attempts (40.8) and 12th in three-point percentage (36.1 3P%), making every night a difficult one for their opponents. In addition, the Suns are one of the feistiest defensive teams in the NBA, restricting opponents to 34.7% from three, the second-best mark in the NBA. If they can rely on these proven strengths, the Blazers might be completely neutralized in this clash.
One of the reasons for Phoenix’s offensive success this season is its incredibly fast-paced system. They play at a 98.9 pace, which is skewed through the longer half-court possessions the team relies on in fourth quarters. They complete 278.3 passes per game, so it’s clear this is a moving offensive system that the Blazers will struggle to slow down.
Defensively, the Suns are one of the best teams at restricting opponents from three, holding them to 34.7 3P% on the season, the second-best mark in the NBA. The Blazers are already the third-worst shooting team in the NBA (34.3 3P%), so the Suns have multiple advantages to exploit in this matchup.
Why The Trail Blazers Have The Advantage
The Blazers have specific advantages that they need to maximize if they want to have a chance at beating the Suns. Their sole win over Phoenix this season came with a defensive masterclass where they held their opponents to 77 points. They can try to replicate the same to get a good result in this clash.
Portland concedes just 50.4 paint points per game, which is a huge credit to Donovan Clingan. The Suns have interior options like Mark Williams, but Clingan’s rapid progression this season shows Portland should win the paint battle. They rank sixth in the NBA in rebounds with 46.0 per game. Their 14.1 offensive rebounds per game is second-best in the NBA and is the reason why they lead the league in second-chance points (18.3 PPG). They also rank seventh in blocking with 5.5 per game.
The Blazers have a clear size advantage over the Suns, which will permeate into other areas of the game outside the paint. The presence of Avdija and Grant will overwhelm the undersized Suns frontcourt with Allen, Brooks, or Royce O’Neale. Clingan can easily outmatch Williams at center, so the Blazers will have to make this a physical clash to disrupt the Suns’ skillful perimeter play.
Jrue Holiday is a defender the Suns never want to see in a must-win game again after his performance in Game 6 of the 2021 NBA Finals. Holiday is one of the most effective defenders in the NBA against Booker, with the veteran two-time champion likely going to make it a long night for the Suns superstar.
X-Factors
Dillon Brooks is going to play a crucial role in ensuring Phoenix’s success, likely being tasked with limiting Deni Avdija’s production. While it’ll be impossible to keep Avdija away from the free-throw line, defenders like Brooks tend to force him to commit more turnovers. Brooks is averaging 20.2 points and 1.0 steals per game this season, and will be the featured 3-and-D piece on the wing for the franchise.
Former NCAA National Champion Collin Gillespie has found a home in the NBA with the Suns this season. He’s averaged 12.7 points, 4.1 rebounds, and 4.6 assists and made himself a crucial part of the team’s rotation. He’ll likely be their starting point guard if they make a Playoff run, which also brings a lot of pressure to perform. If Gillespie continues being the ultra-efficient on-ball playmaker and three-point threat, the Suns will be a dangerous squad for more than just one Play-In game.
Jerami Grant has had a great comeback season with the Blazers after his worst season with the franchise last season. He is averaging 18.6 points and 3.5 rebounds as a key scoring presence in the Blazers’ frontcourt. Grant has shown flashes of high-level defensive play, and will be expected to be a two-way force in the first postseason game he’s played in six years.
Jrue Holiday will be expected to play a huge role as one of the core Blazers guards, averaging 16.3 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 6.1 assists this season. While Holiday hasn’t had a notable regular season campaign, he’s the perfect player to have on a Playoff squad. His defensive impact always shines through, and the Blazers will be praying that it does in this game.
Prediction
The Trail Blazers have the pieces they need to ensure the Suns have a rough offensive night, which would make them a blunt instrument in this clash. That won’t be easy, with the Suns having multiple options who can attack on-ball, create for others, and be reliable scorers in off-ball situations such as catch-and-shoot. Adding Booker’s big game experience to the mix means that even if the Blazers can rely on their biggest skills, we’re going with the Suns to secure their spot in the Playoffs as the stronger team overall.
Prediction: Suns 119, Blazers 114
