The Oklahoma City Thunder host the San Antonio Spurs at Paycom Center on Christmas Day, and it already feels like a mini-rivalry series instead of a one-off holiday game. The Thunder come in 26-4, first in the West, while the Spurs are 22-7 and sitting fifth.
These teams have seen each other twice in the last couple of weeks, and the Spurs have made it personal. First came the 111-109 Spurs win in Las Vegas on December 13. Then the Spurs backed it up with a loud 130-110 win on Tuesday, their seventh straight, while the Thunder took another rare hit in a season where they usually bully everyone.
The headliners are exactly who you think. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is in full “best player on the floor, every night” mode at 32.5 points per game on elite efficiency. Victor Wembanyama has been a monster all season at 23.7 points, 11.8 rebounds, and 3.1 blocks per game, and his presence is basically the entire mood of this matchup.
Christmas game, recent history, two contenders, and the Thunder now get the “you embarrassed us, so enjoy the response” angle at home. That’s the whole setup.
Injury Report
Thunder
Ajay Mitchell: Out (concussion protocol)
Ousmane Dieng: Out (right calf strain)
Thomas Sorber: Out (right ACL surgical recovery)
Nikola Topic: Out (surgical recovery)
Jaylin Williams: Out (right heel bursitis)
Spurs
Harrison Ingram: Out (G League, two-way)
David Jones Garcia: Out (G League, two-way)
Stanley Umude: Out (G League, two-way)
Why The Thunder Have The Advantage
This is the classic “league-best defense plus home crowd plus wounded pride” recipe.
Even in the loss Tuesday, the Thunder showed the part that makes them so hard to beat: they don’t need a perfect offensive night to stay connected, because their defense usually manufactures easy points. They lead the league in defensive rating this season, and that’s not a small edge. That’s separation.
The other thing is adjustment. Tuesday’s loss had two huge red flags for the Thunder that feel very fixable: they lost the paint battle 60-48 and got out-scored on points off turnovers, 20-11. That’s not “they can’t hang.” That’s “they lost the physical math for one night.” If the Thunder clean up the rebounding and stop letting the Spurs walk into deep paint touches, the game looks totally different.
And this is where the Thunder’s roster build matters. They can throw waves at you. They can switch lineups, change matchups, and still keep that same defensive bite. Even short-handed in the rotation, the core identity stays intact, and that’s why they’ve been sitting at the top of the West basically all season.
If this turns into a late-game situation again, I also trust the Thunder’s ability to generate clean looks more than most teams because the spacing and pace are usually disciplined. That’s been their thing, and it’s why they’re 26-4 in the first place.
Why The Spurs Have The Advantage
The Spurs’ advantage is confidence, matchup clarity, and the fact they’ve already proven they can drag the Thunder into their kind of game twice.
They aren’t winning these games by accident. They’ve leaned into size, they’ve leaned into physicality, and they’ve made the Thunder defend the paint instead of letting the game become a runway. Tuesday was the cleanest example: the Spurs won the paint and they won the turnover-derived points, which is basically the two fastest ways to beat a “defense-first” favorite.
And the Spurs don’t have to play perfect offensively to win, because they’ve been a legit defensive team all year. They’re sitting near the top of the league in defensive rating, which gives them a real floor even when the shooting comes and goes.
The other thing that matters for a Christmas rematch: the Spurs clearly aren’t intimidated. They already snapped the Thunder once in Vegas, then punched them again in a 20-point win. They’ve been the only team to beat the Thunder twice this season, and that’s not a coincidence anymore.
If the Spurs keep forcing this into half-court basketball, keep the paint crowded, and make every Thunder bucket feel like work, they can absolutely steal another one and turn this into a full-blown “Thunder have a Spurs problem” narrative.
Thunder vs. Spurs Prediction
I’m taking the Thunder.
Not because the Spurs can’t do it again, they’ve already proven they can. But I’m betting hard on the response game at Paycom Center, with the Thunder cleaning up the paint battle and playing with that extra Christmas urgency after getting smacked on Tuesday.
Prediction: Thunder 118, Spurs 112
