The Sacramento Kings host the Dallas Mavericks at Golden 1 Center on Saturday, with both teams trying to stop the bleeding in the West. The Mavericks come in at 12-20 (11th in the West), while the Kings sit at 7-23 (15th in the West).
This is the first of three regular-season meetings between these two, and the vibes are simple: both offenses can score, but only one of these teams has shown even a little ability to get consistent stops.
On the star power side, the Mavericks lean on Anthony Davis (20.5 points, 10.9 rebounds, 1.6 blocks, 52.1% from the field), though probably injured for a few games, and rookie Cooper Flagg (19.4 points, 6.4 rebounds, 3.8 assists). The Kings’ headliners are sidelined Zach LaVine (20.2 points, 48.7% from the field, 38.5% from three) and DeMar DeRozan (18.1 points per game this season).
Injury Report
Kings
Domantas Sabonis: Out (left knee partial meniscus tear)
Zach LaVine: Out (left ankle sprain)
Keegan Murray: Out (right calf strain)
Drew Eubanks: Out (left thumb avulsion fracture)
Devin Carter: Questionable (left ankle sprain)
Mavericks
Kyrie Irving: Out (left knee surgery)
Dereck Lively II: Out (right foot surgery)
Dante Exum: Out (right knee surgery)
Anthony Davis: Questionable (right adductor soreness)
Brandon Williams: Doubtful (left calf contusion)
Why The Kings Have The Advantage
If you want the cleanest argument for the Kings, it starts with pace and shot volume. They play fast, and it’s not subtle. The Kings sit at 100.91 in pace, and they also average 112.0 points per game, which means they can turn a random five-minute stretch into a mini avalanche if the threes fall.
They also do a nice job creating looks. The Kings average 25.4 assists per game, and with Russell Westbrook pushing tempo (14.4 points, 7.2 assists, 6.9 rebounds), they usually find a way to manufacture extra possessions and easy points, especially at home.
And even with the injury mess, they still have enough creators to stress a defense that’s been shaky on the road. DeRozan remains the late-clock bailout guy who can live at the nail and get to his spots, and the supporting pieces can pop in any given night. Malik Monk is sitting at 12.4 points per game while hitting 41.4% from three, and rookie Maxime Raynaud has given them usable minutes (10.0 points, 5.9 rebounds).
The biggest “Kings path” to winning is pretty straightforward: keep it high-possession, win the turnover battle, and make the Mavericks defend actions over and over without giving them time to set their base. That’s how you drag a team with limited ball-handlers into mistakes and rushed shots.
Why The Mavericks Have The Advantage
The Mavericks’ edge is that their baseline level on defense is simply higher than the Kings’ right now, and the numbers back it up. The Kings have been bleeding points all season with a 120.1 defensive rating, while the Mavericks sit at 114.0. That gap is enormous in a single game.
Even better for the Mavericks, the Kings’ overall profile is rough. They rank near the bottom in net rating (minus-10.3), and their offense sits at 109.8, which is the kind of production that forces you to win ugly if your defense can’t hold up.
Then you get to the obvious swing factor: Flagg. He’s been the most consistent engine for this team, and his scoring travels because he doesn’t need perfect spacing to get buckets. Without Davis, the matchup becomes even scarier for the Kings because Sabonis’ absence leaves them vulnerable to a young, athletic team that will run in transition.
And while the Mavericks haven’t shot the ball well lately, they still have more “I can win my matchup” wings than the Kings do with the injuries piling up. Klay Thompson is only at 11.0 points per game this season and he’s been inefficient (36.9% from the field, 35.1% from three), but he’s still the type of guy who can flip a quarter if he sees two go in.
The one warning light is real, though: the Mavericks’ shooting has dipped hard recently, with just 9.1 made threes per game over their last 10. If that continues, this can get uncomfortable fast.
Kings vs. Mavericks Prediction
This game screams, “whoever survives the injuries.” Even without Davis, I like the Mavericks because the Kings’ defense has been a problem all season, and taking away Sabonis and LaVine removes a lot of structure from their offense.
But still, the Kings can absolutely steal it with pace and Westbrook chaos. But with the info we have, I’m leaning Mavericks in a messy one.
Prediction: Mavericks 113, Kings 108
