The Houston Rockets host the Cleveland Cavaliers at Toyota Center on December 27, and it’s a sneaky-good matchup because both teams can score in bunches, but they do it in totally different ways. The Rockets sit 18-10 (6th in the West) and they’ve been a problem at home with an 8-2 record. The Cavaliers come in 17-15 (7th in the East) and 6-7 on the road, so they’ve held up fine away from home.
They already played once this season, and the Rockets took it 114-104, so they lead the series 1-0.
As far as the headliners go, this is real star power. Donovan Mitchell is at 30.7 points per game, while Kevin Durant leads the Rockets at 25.2 points per game. If Alperen Sengun plays, he’s the tone-setter too, and his status matters a lot in this one.
Injury Report
Rockets
Fred VanVleet: Out (right knee ACL repair)
Alperen Sengun: Questionable (left calf tightness)
Cavaliers
Larry Nance Jr.: Out (right calf strain)
Max Strus: Out (left foot surgery)
Why The Rockets Have The Advantage
The Rockets’ edge starts with the simplest thing to trust in a single-game preview: elite offense plus a slower pace that lets them control the flow. They’re averaging 120.5 points per game, and the efficiency numbers look even better, with a 122.6 offensive rating. They don’t play track-meet basketball either, they sit at 96.53 pace, which usually means cleaner possessions, fewer sloppy stretches, and more time to hunt the matchup they actually want.
That style matters against a Cavaliers team that wants to speed you up. If the Rockets keep it in their preferred rhythm, they can make this game feel like “your turn, our turn,” and that’s where having Durant becomes unfair. He doesn’t need chaos to score. He just needs a spot and a matchup.
The other big piece is defense. The Rockets sit at a 113.5 defensive rating, which puts them in a better place than people still assume when they think about this team as offense-first. And at home, they’ve turned that into real results, again, 8-2 is not an accident.
Now add the context that the Rockets already proved they can win this matchup. In the first meeting, they won 114-104, and they did it without needing some insane shooting night. If they replicate that formula, solid defense, clean offense, no free possessions, they put the Cavaliers in a spot where Mitchell has to be superhuman for four quarters.
The swing factor is Sengun. If he plays, the Rockets’ offense gets a different layer, because he can create points without relying on hot jump shooting. If he sits, the Rockets still have the top-end scoring to win, but they’ll need extra shot-making and they can’t let the Cavaliers turn rebounds into quick runs.
Why The Cavaliers Have The Advantage
The Cavaliers’ advantage is pace, volume threes, and the fact that they can turn this into a game with way more possessions than the Rockets prefer. They’re playing at 101.28 pace, a massive contrast in styles, and when the Cavaliers get comfortable, they can make the game feel frantic in a hurry.
They’ve also scored right around the same level as the Rockets in raw production, at 120.0 points per game, and they sit on a 117.7 offensive rating. So while the Rockets have the higher efficiency ceiling, the Cavaliers can still absolutely put a number on you, especially if the game opens up.
This is also where Mitchell becomes the entire storyline. His 30.7 points per game isn’t just a stat, it’s a problem that forces defensive compromises. If the Rockets try to keep everything in front and avoid help, Mitchell can just hunt mismatches and live in the midrange. If the Rockets send extra bodies, the Cavaliers can punish that with kickouts and early-clock threes.
The Cavaliers can also feel pretty good about their road profile. They’re 6-6 away from home, which suggests they don’t fall apart the second they leave their building. If they steal the early pace battle and make the Rockets play faster than they want, they can absolutely flip the home-court edge.
The biggest concern for the Cavaliers is defense. They sit at 115.4 defensive rating, which lands them closer to “average” than “scary,” and that’s dangerous against an offense as efficient as the Rockets. But if they win the pace battle and keep their transition defense from collapsing, they can survive that.
Rockets vs. Cavaliers Prediction
This comes down to two things for me: Sengun’s tag and control. If Sengun plays, the Rockets have too much structure and too much efficient scoring to pick against at home. If he sits, the Cavaliers have a real path to steal it by turning it into a faster, looser game and letting Mitchell dictate.
I’ll lean Rockets at home, but I expect it to feel close late.
Prediction: Rockets 118, Cavaliers 112
