The Oklahoma City Thunder host the Philadelphia 76ers at Paycom Center on Sunday afternoon, and this one feels like a real “welcome to the blender” spot. Tip-off is set for 3:30 PM ET.
The Thunder come in with an NBA-best 26-5 record and the top spot in the West, basically playing like they’re allergic to bad nights. The 76ers are 16-13, sitting 5th in the East, and trying to survive a stretch where their lineup keeps changing every other game.
This is the first meeting between these teams this season, with the rematch currently slated for March 23.
Star power is obvious. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been unreal, putting up 32.1 points, 6.5 assists, 4.9 rebounds while shooting 55.1% from the field and 42.5% from three. On the other side, Tyrese Maxey has been a one-man track meet at 30.8 points and 7.0 assists per game, and he’s doing it while living on heavy minutes.
Injury Report
Thunder
Ousmane Dieng: Out (right calf strain)
Thomas Sorber: Out (right ACL surgical recovery)
Nikola Topic: Out (surgical recovery)
Jaylin Williams: Out (right heel bursitis)
76ers
Joel Embiid: Out (right ankle sprain, right knee injury management)
Kelly Oubre Jr.: Out (left knee sprain)
Trendon Watford: Out (left adductor strain)
Paul George: Probable (left knee injury management)
Why The Thunder Have The Advantage
It starts with the obvious: the Thunder are the best defense in the league right now. Their defensive rating sits at 106.2, and that’s not “pretty good,” that’s “your offense might look broken on film afterward.”
They don’t just guard, they hunt. The Thunder average 10.3 steals per game, and those live-ball turnovers turn into instant runway basketball. Even if the pace number isn’t ridiculous, the chaos is. They’re still playing at 99.74 possessions per game, so it’s not some slow grind where you can breathe.
Offensively, they don’t need anything fancy because the floor is spaced and the decisions are fast. They’re scoring 121.3 points per game and carrying a 120.0 offensive rating, plus a league-best 13.8 net rating. That is dominance, not a hot streak.
And of course, it all flows through Shai. When your “bailout option” is a guy averaging 32 a night on elite efficiency, you can survive cold stretches, weird rotations, and random whistles. Jalen Williams gives them a clean second creator, too, with 17.6 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 5.3 assists per game.
My big thing here: the Thunder are going to win the possession battle. More steals, fewer mistakes, more shots. Against a 76ers team that turns it over 14.1 times per game, that’s a nightmare combo.
Why The 76ers Have The Advantage
The 76ers’ path is pretty simple: Maxey has to go nuclear, and the supporting cast has to actually make the catch-and-shoot stuff count.
Even without perfect health, the numbers say their offense can score. They’re at 116.1 points per game with a 115.2 offensive rating, and they’re playing at a 99.5 pace, so this isn’t some slow, half-court-only team.
Maxey is the whole engine. When he gets downhill early, it forces rotations, and that’s where the 76ers can steal points with quick threes or rim runs before the Thunder set their defense. If Paul George plays and looks like a real No. 2 for stretches, that’s the swing factor. He’s at 16.3 points per game this season and hitting 40.2% from three, so the spacing element is real when he’s moving well.
They also have a legit rebounding card to play. Andre Drummond is still a vacuum at 9.5 boards per game, and the 76ers as a team pull down 45.2 rebounds per night. If they can manufacture extra possessions without giving the ball away, that’s how you keep this close.
But I’m not going to sugarcoat it: the margin is thin. The 76ers’ net rating is basically neutral at 0.9, and the Thunder live in blowout territory.
Thunder vs. 76ers Prediction
I’m riding with the Thunder. The defense is too nasty, the ball pressure is too constant, and Shai is the ultimate “this ends now” closer when a game starts wobbling.
Maxey will get his, because Maxey always gets his. But without Joel Embiid, it’s hard to see the 76ers generating enough clean half-court offense for 48 minutes against the best defense in the NBA.
Prediction: Thunder 123, 76ers 111
