The Miami Heat host the Minnesota Timberwolves at Kaseya Center on Saturday (5:00 PM ET), and the spotlight is on the stars right away.
For the Heat, Norman Powell has carried the scoring load at 24.2 points, 3.9 rebounds, and 2.7 assists per game, while Tyler Herro has added 23.2 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 2.3 assists, even though he’s sidelined for this one. Bam Adebayo remains the anchor at 17.7 points, 9.7 rebounds, and 2.4 assists, and his back status is a real “watch the warmups” storyline.
For the Timberwolves, Anthony Edwards has been the headliner at 29.1 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 3.6 assists per game, but he’s also coming in with extra noise after the last-game frustration that turned into a controversy. Julius Randle has been a steady secondary punch at 22.3 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 5.8 assists, and Rudy Gobert is still the paint dictator at 11.0 points, 11.0 rebounds, and 1.9 assists while shooting 71.0% from the field.
Injury Report
Heat
Tyler Herro: Out (right big toe contusion)
Terry Rozier: Out (not with team)
Pelle Larsson: Questionable (right ankle sprain)
Bam Adebayo: Probable (lower back soreness)
Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Probable (right thigh contusion)
Nikola Jovic: Probable (right elbow contusion/laceration)
Simone Fontecchio: Available (left ankle inflammation)
Dru Smith: Available (right elbow soreness)
Timberwolves
Terrence Shannon Jr.: Out (abductor hallucis strain)
Why The Heat Have The Advantage
The Heat’s edge starts with what they do every night: they score, they share it, and they make games uncomfortable.
They’re putting up 120.9 points per game with 28.7 assists, which tells you the ball isn’t sticking even when the lineup shifts. On top of that, they’re forcing chaos with 9.3 steals per game, and that’s a massive deal against a team that can drift into slow, predictable possessions when the energy dips.
Then there’s the home profile. A 12-5 record at home isn’t “nice,” it’s a real advantage, especially with an opponent that’s trying to reset its identity. Add the current momentum, a four-game win streak, and you’re looking at a team that’s rolling into this matchup expecting to control it.
Even with the guard injuries, the Heat don’t need to win with pure shot-making. They can win with possession pressure. If they keep the Timberwolves from walking into clean looks, and they turn a handful of sloppy trips into run-outs, that’s how this becomes a game the Timberwolves spend all night chasing.
Why The Timberwolves Have The Advantage
The Timberwolves’ advantage is that they’re the cleaner “two-way” team on paper, and they can win this without playing pretty.
They score 118.8 points per game, but the real number is 114.6 points allowed. That’s a meaningful defensive edge, and it matters even more when the Heat are missing key perimeter creators. The Timberwolves also shoot 48.0% from the field and pull down 44.2 rebounds per game, which fits the blueprint for stealing a road game: defend, rebound, and don’t waste possessions.
They also have real disruptive tools. 5.4 blocks and 8.5 steals per game means they can erase mistakes at the rim and pressure the ball without completely selling out. If they turn this into a physical game and keep the Heat off rhythm threes, they can grind this into the kind of night where one cold stretch decides everything.
And the road record (9-7) says they’re not terrified of these spots. If they show up with focus, they’ve got the profile to make this ugly and steal it.
X-Factors
Jaime Jaquez Jr. is huge here because he’s the type of role guy who can quietly become a secondary engine when the guards are out. He’s averaging 16.5 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 4.8 assists on 53.3% from the field. If he turns the Heat’s halfcourt into something functional possession after possession, that changes the entire feel of the game.
Nikola Jovic is the swing piece. He’s at 8.4 points, 3.9 rebounds, and 3.1 assists, and if his decision-making is sharp, the Heat’s ball movement stays alive even when the Timberwolves try to bog it down.
For the Timberwolves, Naz Reid is the classic “bench flips the game” guy. He’s putting up 14.0 points and 6.3 rebounds, and if he wins those non-starter minutes, it can erase any scoring droughts and keep pressure on the Heat’s thinner rotation.
Jaden McDaniels is the other big one. He’s averaging 14.8 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 2.7 assists while shooting 50.6% from the field, and his two-way value matters because this matchup will feature a lot of “who holds up on the wing” possessions. If he’s efficient and disruptive, the Timberwolves’ defense gets way louder.
Prediction
This game feels like it’s going to be decided by two things: who wins the turnover battle, and whether the Heat’s home offense stays smooth without their backcourt depth.
I’m leaning Heat because the home form is legit (12-5), and the team profile says they can force enough chaos to swing the margin.
Prediction: Heat 112, Timberwolves 108
