The Miami Heat host the Oklahoma City Thunder at Kaseya Center on Saturday, Jan. 17 at 8:00 PM ET.
The Thunder come in at 35-7 as the No. 1 seed in the West, while the Heat are 21-20 as the No. 9 seed in the East. The Heat last played the Celtics and lost 119-114, while the Thunder just beat the Rockets 111-91.
This is a quick rematch, too: the Thunder already took the first meeting 124-112 on Jan. 11.
On the Heat side, Norman Powell has been the top scoring engine at 23.9 points per game, and Bam Adebayo has put up 17.5 points, 9.0 rebounds, and 0.9 blocks this season. For the Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is still cooking at 31.6 points, 6.3 assists, and 4.4 rebounds per game, while Chet Holmgren adds 17.9 points, 8.4 rebounds, and 1.9 blocks.
If the Heat want to flip the script at home, they’ve got to survive the Thunder pressure and keep this from turning into a track meet.
Injury Report
Heat
Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Out (left knee sprain)
Davion Mitchell: Out (left shoulder contusion)
Terry Rozier: Out (not with team)
Tyler Herro: Questionable (right big toe/rib contusion)
Nikola Jovic: Available (right knee soreness)
Pelle Larsson: Available (left 3rd mallet finger)
Thunder
Isaiah Hartenstein: Out (right soleus strain)
Thomas Sorber: Out (right ACL surgical recovery)
Nikola Topic: Out (surgical recovery)
Why The Heat Have The Advantage
The first thing is simple: home floor, and a real chance to make this ugly in the half-court if the pace stays under control. The Heat’s best path is to win the possession game, meaning rebounds, loose balls, and second chances.
The Heat can actually lean into their team identity stuff here. They’re at 45.3 rebounds per game, and they move the ball at a high level with 28.5 assists per game. If they’re cracking the paint and spraying it out, that’s how you keep the Thunder from loading up on Powell and turning every touch into a trap.
The shooting gives them a lane, too. The Heat sit at 36.8% from three, and if that holds for a full night, it forces the Thunder to guard the whole floor instead of just sitting in help and hunting steals.
Why The Thunder Have The Advantage
The Thunder basically live on dominance math right now. They score 121.1 points per game, and they only give up 107.7. That’s a massive margin, and it shows up every time they start forcing rushed shots and running the other way.
Efficiency is a big part of it. They’re at 48.9% from the field as a team, and that matters against a Heat defense that can get stretched thin if the rotations are even a beat late.
And even if this slows down, the Thunder still have the best “late-clock answer” on the floor. Shai is putting up 31.6 a night with 6.3 assists, and if you overhelp, Holmgren has been a consistent finisher at 17.9 points with real rim protection on the other end.
X-Factors
Pelle Larsson matters more than people think in this matchup. He’s at 9.1 points, 2.7 rebounds, and 3.1 assists, and the Heat needs his connective play if Tyler Herro is limited or can’t go. If Larsson can keep the offense organized and hit the simple reads, the Heat can actually get into their sets instead of playing “bailout ball” late in the clock.
Nikola Jovic is another swing piece. He’s at 8.7 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 2.9 assists, and his value here is being a big who can make the next pass. If the Thunder start sending extra attention at Powell, Jovic has to punish that with quick decisions, not hesitation.
Kel’el Ware is the chaos factor. The raw line is loud, 11.9 points, 10.2 rebounds, 1.2 blocks. If he can own the glass and protect the rim without fouling, the Heat can survive the stretches where Shai starts bending the game.
For the Thunder, Cason Wallace is the annoying guy you feel all night. He’s at 7.3 points, 3.0 rebounds, and 2.1 assists, but the real thing is the defense: 2.2 steals per game. If he turns a couple Heat possessions into runouts, that’s how this gets out of hand fast.
Isaiah Joe is the floor-tilter. He’s putting up 9.7 points in under 20 minutes, and he’s at 40.6% from three. If he hits early, the Heat can’t shrink the floor at all, and that opens the runway for Shai and Holmgren to do damage.
Prediction
I’m rolling with the Thunder here. The record isn’t a fluke, the defense travels, and they already proved they can win this matchup. The Heat’s got a real shot if the threes fall and the game stays in the mud, but the Thunder’s scoring + shot quality combo usually wins out over 48 minutes.
Prediction: Heat 110, Thunder 118
