The Cavaliers host the Knicks at Rocket Arena on Tuesday, February 24, at 7:30 PM ET, with the Cavaliers sitting at 36-22 (fourth in the East) and the Knicks at 37-21 (third in the East).
Home-road matters here because the Cavaliers are 19-11 at home and the Knicks are 14-13 on the road, so the Knicks are walking into a building where the Cavaliers have been steady all year.
The Cavaliers’ last game was a 121-113 Sunday loss to the Thunder, while the Knicks’ last game was a 105-99 win over the Bulls that same night, which keeps the Knicks in front in the East pecking order entering this one.
They’ve already played twice this season, and the Knicks have won both, so the Knicks lead the season series 2-0.
For the Cavaliers, James Harden is averaging 24.6 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 8.2 assists, and Donovan Mitchell is at 28.6 points and 5.9 assists; for the Knicks, Jalen Brunson is posting 26.8 points and 6.2 assists, and Karl-Anthony Towns is at 20.1 points, 11.8 rebounds, and 2.9 assists.
With third and fourth in the East separated by one game, this is the kind of night where one clean stretch can swing a week of standings pressure.
Injury Report
Knicks
Miles McBride: Out (pelvic core muscle surgery)
Cavaliers
Max Strus: Out (left foot surgery – Jones fracture)
Why The Cavaliers Have The Advantage
The starting point is scoring and shot volume: the Cavaliers are 3rd in points per game at 119.7, and they pair that with the 5th-most three-point attempts at 40.6 per game.
That math matters in this matchup because the Knicks defend well, but they still allow a lot of opponent three-point volume. The Knicks are 23rd in opponent three-point attempts allowed per game at 38.5, while the Cavaliers are 5th in three-point attempts themselves.
Efficiency is right there with it. The Cavaliers are 5th in offensive rating at 117.6, so this is not just pace or volume, it’s an offense that produces across a full game of possessions.
If the Knicks try to shrink the game and make it half-court, the Cavaliers can still win possessions with ball movement. The Cavaliers have been one of the league’s better passing teams, and the Knicks will have to defend multiple actions per trip, not just the first one.
The obvious vulnerability is defense. The Cavaliers are 16th in points allowed per game at 115.4, which leaves them less margin for error if the Knicks control tempo and avoid live-ball mistakes.
Why The Knicks Have The Advantage
The Knicks’ defensive base is cleaner. They’re 7th in points allowed per game at 111.8, and that travel-proof profile is why they’ve stayed near the top tier of the East even when the offense has swung game to game.
They also protect possessions at an elite level. The Knicks are 4th in turnovers per game at 13.4, which directly attacks what the Cavaliers want most: extra chances created by pressure and pace.
The Knicks can also play the same math game without having to speed up. They’re 9th in three-point attempts per game at 39.5, so they can keep pace on the scoreboard even in a slower, more physical game.
Rebounding is a real lever, too. The Knicks are 9th in rebounds per game at 54.3, and against a team that relies on three-point volume, finishing possessions is the difference between a stop and a second wave.
The weak spot is free throws. The Knicks are 23rd in free-throw attempts per game at 21.9, so if their jumpers flatten out, they don’t have as much “bailout” scoring to stabilize a bad quarter.
X-Factors
Evan Mobley is the Cavaliers’ swing piece because his two-way production changes the shape of the game without needing a system adjustment. He’s averaging 17.7 points, 8.6 rebounds, and 3.9 assists, and his role here is to punish smaller lineups on the glass while also holding up in space when the Knicks spread the floor. If Mobley wins the rebound-and-recover possessions, the Knicks’ half-court efficiency has to be almost perfect to keep up.
Jarrett Allen is the other Cavaliers hinge because he determines whether the Cavaliers can survive the Knicks’ physicality without giving up second chances. Allen is at 14.8 points and 8.5 rebounds, and if he controls the defensive glass, it lets the Cavaliers turn stops into three-point volume the other way. If Allen gets moved off his spots, the Cavaliers’ best offensive advantage gets wasted on extra defensive possessions.
Josh Hart is the Knicks tone-setter in a game like this. He’s the guy who turns a “good defensive possession” into a possession win by rebounding and pushing tempo selectively, and if he’s winning those loose-ball margins, the Knicks can keep the Cavaliers from getting their preferred rhythm threes.
OG Anunoby is the Knicks’ matchup plug because his defensive work changes which actions the Knicks can switch and which they have to help. He’s averaging 16.6 points and 5.5 rebounds, and if he holds up one-on-one without fouling, the Knicks can stay home on shooters more often. If Anunoby gets forced into constant help, the Cavaliers’ three-point volume becomes a bigger problem possession by possession.
Prediction
I’m taking the Cavaliers. The Knicks have the defensive edge, and they protect the ball, but the Cavaliers’ scoring profile is the hardest thing to hold down for 48 minutes: 3rd in points per game, 5th in three-point attempts, and 5th in offensive rating.
Prediction: Cavaliers 118, Knicks 112
