The Pistons host the Cavaliers at Little Caesars Arena on Friday, February 27, at 7:00 PM ET. The Pistons are 43-14 and first in the East, while the Cavaliers are 37-23 and fourth.
The Pistons are 22-7 at home, and the Cavaliers are 17-12 on the road.
The Pistons are coming off a 124-116 win over the Thunder. The Cavaliers’ last game was a 118-116 loss to the Bucks.
These teams have already played twice this season and split the two meetings, 1-1.
Cade Cunningham is averaging 25.4 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 9.8 assists, and Jalen Duren is at 18.2 points and 10.6 rebounds.
On the other side, James Harden is averaging 24.5 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 8.1 assists, and Jarrett Allen is putting up 15.1 points and 8.6 rebounds.
The hook is availability: both teams are missing rotation pieces, and the game is likely to tilt toward whoever can generate clean offense without giving away possessions. James Harden has been diagnosed with a thumb fracture but is expected to play through it over the next few weeks.
Injury Report
Pistons
Isaiah Stewart: Out (league suspension)
Bobi Klintman: Out (G League – On Assignment)
Chaz Lanier: Out (G League – On Assignment)
Wendell Moore Jr.: Out (G League – Two-Way)
Cavaliers
Donovan Mitchell: Out (right groin strain)
Max Strus: Out (left foot surgery – Jones fracture)
James Harden: Questionable (right thumb fracture)
Keon Ellis: Questionable (left index finger fracture)
Dennis Schroder: Questionable (right ankle sprain)
Dean Wade: Questionable (right ankle sprain)
Why The Pistons Have The Advantage
The Pistons win games with defense-first control, and the numbers back it up. They’re 4th in points allowed at 109.5, which keeps their floor high even when the offense isn’t perfect.
They also defend the paint at an elite level. They rank 3rd in points in the paint allowed per game (42.6), which matters in a matchup where the Cavaliers usually want to pressure the rim and force rotations.
The Pistons’ profile also fits the moment because they don’t need a three-point shootout to score. They’re 27th in three-point attempts per game (31.7), so their offense is built to survive cold shooting nights without panicking into bad possessions.
The obvious risk is giveaways. They’re 23rd in turnovers per game (15.2), and against a Cavaliers team that can score quickly when it gets extra possessions, that’s the one stat that can flip the script.
Why The Cavaliers Have The Advantage
The Cavaliers’ biggest edge is offensive volume with real efficiency. They’re 4th in points per game at 119.5, and that matters in an injury game without Donovan Mitchell, because it shows they can still reach a scoring number without needing a perfect fourth quarter.
They also win the math game from deep. They attempt 40.5 threes per game, which is a huge contrast against a Pistons team that plays lower three-point volume by design.
The Cavaliers have also been cleaner with the ball than the Pistons. They’re 12th in turnovers per game at 14.3, and in a matchup that could get choppy, “one extra empty trip” can decide the middle two quarters.
The concern is what the injuries do to shot creation. If the Cavaliers can’t generate quality looks early, the game can shrink into half-court possessions where the Pistons’ paint defense becomes more valuable every minute.
X-Factors
Ausar Thompson is the Pistons’ possession multiplier. He’s averaging 10.2 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 2.9 assists, and his impact is less about shot-making and more about creating extra trips: deflections, rebounds, loose balls, and quick pushes. If Thompson wins those “hidden” possessions, the Pistons can separate in a game that might otherwise stay tight.
Tobias Harris is the Pistons’ half-court release valve when the game gets physical and the paint is crowded. He’s at 13.0 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 2.3 assists, and this is the kind of night where converting the boring shots matters: short post seals, corner threes off drive help, and late-clock bailouts. If Harris is efficient, the Pistons’ offense stays steady even if the game turns ugly.
Sam Merrill is the Cavaliers’ cleanest way to manufacture points without needing complicated creation, especially with Donovan Mitchell out and James Harden listed as questionable. Merrill is averaging 13.0 points, 2.4 rebounds, and 2.2 assists, and the job is simple: punish the moments when the Pistons load the paint and dare the kickout. If Merrill hits a couple early threes, the Pistons’ help rules tighten and the Cavaliers’ half-court offense gets breathing room.
Dennis Schroder is the stabilizer, as the Cavaliers’ guard rotation is compromised. He’s at 12.2 points, 2.9 rebounds, and 5.1 assists, and his value here is pace control and decision-making. If Schroder keeps possessions clean and avoids live-ball turnovers, the Cavaliers can stay connected. If he gets sped up, the Pistons get the transition chances they want.
Prediction
I’m taking the Pistons. With the Cavaliers short-handed and multiple ball-handlers listed questionable, this sets up like a game where the home defense can squeeze the margins, especially in the paint. If the Pistons keep the Cavaliers off the rim and avoid a turnover spike, they have the cleaner path to controlling the fourth quarter.
Prediction: Pistons 112, Cavaliers 106
