The Celtics host the Warriors at TD Garden on Wednesday, March 18, at 7:00 p.m. ET.
The Celtics enter at 45-23, second in the East, and 23-10 at home, while the Warriors are 33-35, ninth in the West, and 14-20 on the road.
The Celtics are coming off a 120-112 win over the Suns, the Warriors just beat the Wizards 125-117 to snap a five-game skid, and the season series is 1-0 for the Celtics after a 121-110 win in February.
Jaylen Brown has been the Celtics’ main scorer all season, averaging 28.4 points, 7.1 rebounds, and 5.1 assists. Jayson Tatum is still working his way back into full rhythm, but he is available and averaging 20.0 points, 8.2 rebounds, and 4.4 assists in limited action this season.
That still gives the Celtics the best star pair in this matchup, especially with the Warriors walking in so shorthanded.
For the Warriors, Brandin Podziemski is one of the few stable, healthy perimeter pieces, averaging 13.0 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 3.8 assists. Kristaps Porzingis is expected to play and has given them 17.2 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 2.7 assists this season.
That is the basic tension here: the Warriors still have enough size and passing to make this annoying for a while, but the Celtics have the deeper rotation, the better team profile, and far fewer questions around their core.
Injury Report
Celtics
Nikola Vucevic: Out (right ring finger fracture)
John Tonje: Out (G League – Two-Way)
Warriors
Stephen Curry: Out (right patellofemoral pain syndrome)
Jimmy Butler III: Out (right ACL surgery)
Moses Moody: Out (right wrist sprain)
Seth Curry: Out (left adductor strain)
Al Horford: Out (right soleus strain)
Quinten Post: Questionable (right foot injury management)
LJ Cryer: Questionable (left hamstring injury management)
Gary Payton II: Probable (left tibial contusion)
Why The Celtics Have The Advantage
The biggest edge is the overall quality gap. The Celtics own a 120.4 offensive rating, which ranks second in the league, a 112.8 defensive rating, which ranks fifth, and a +7.6 net rating, also among the NBA’s best. The Warriors sit much closer to the middle at 115.3 points per game and a 114.5 defensive rating. That is not a small difference. It is the difference between a real contender profile and a team trying to survive the play-in line.
The Celtics also have the cleaner possession game. They are grabbing 46.2 rebounds per game and turning it over only 12.2 times per game, while the Warriors are down at 42.9 rebounds and up at 15.4 turnovers. In a matchup against a depleted opponent, that matters a lot. The Warriors can still move the ball, but if the Celtics own the glass and avoid giving away extra possessions, the game starts leaning their way pretty quickly.
The injury context makes it even harder on the Warriors. Stephen Curry is out. Jimmy Butler III is out. Al Horford is out. Moses Moody is out. Even if Podziemski and Porzingis give them real offense, that is a massive hit to their shot creation, spacing, and defensive organization. Against a Celtics team that is basically healthy at the top and just got 41 from Brown against the Suns, that is a rough setup.
There is also direct matchup evidence. The Celtics already beat the Warriors 121-110 in the first meeting, and now they get the rematch at TD Garden, where they are 23-10. The Warriors just stopped the bleeding in Washington, but before that, they had lost five straight, and they are still only 14-20 on the road. That is not the profile I trust against a team with this kind of floor.
Why The Warriors Have The Advantage
The Warriors’ best case starts with ball movement. They are averaging 29.2 assists per game, one of the best marks in the league, and even in the win over the Wizards, they had 32 assists on 46 made baskets. That matters because they are not going to win this by matching the Celtics star for star. Their path is to turn the game into a read-and-react contest, make the defense move, and create enough clean threes before the Celtics can settle in.
There is also still a real volume-three angle here. The Warriors are making 16.2 threes per game, and that kind of math can flatten a talent gap for one night. The Celtics are the better all-around team, but if Podziemski is touching the paint, Porzingis is dragging a big out of the lane, and the ball keeps finding shooters on the weak side, the Warriors at least have a way to stress the matchup.
The frontcourt piece is key. Porzingis is not just a name here. He had 30 points in the win over the Wizards, and even in the loss to the Timberwolves, he gave the Warriors 20 points in 22 minutes. With Quinten Post still questionable and Horford out, the Warriors need Porzingis to give them a real scoring ceiling and enough rim presence to keep the Celtics from owning the paint completely. If he is good, the game gets a lot more complicated than it looks on paper.
And the Celtics are not invincible. Their offense is elite, but they only average 24.5 assists per game, which is not an overwhelming playmaking number for a top-tier attack. If the Warriors can make this scrappier, force more self-created shots, and keep Brown and Tatum from getting easy rhythm possessions, there is at least a path to an ugly fourth quarter. It is a narrow path, but it is there.
X-Factors
Derrick White is the Celtics’ x-factor that can quietly break this game open. He is averaging 17.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 5.7 assists, and he also gives the Celtics another real defender who can blow up actions before they start. Against a Warriors team leaning heavily on Podziemski to organize the offense, White’s point-of-attack defense and secondary creation matter a lot. If he controls the middle parts of the game, the Celtics become much harder to bother.
Sam Hauser is the other Celtics role guy to watch. He is averaging 9.2 points, 3.9 rebounds, and 1.5 assists while shooting 38.6% from three. The Warriors are likely to send extra help toward Brown and Tatum whenever they can, so Hauser’s job is simple: make the help look wrong. If he hits open threes and keeps the floor spaced, the Warriors do not really have enough healthy bodies to cover all of the Celtics’ options.
Gary Payton II matters for the Warriors because this game needs some chaos from their side. He is averaging 6.0 points, 3.3 rebounds, and 1.6 assists, and even if the scoring is modest, his value is in the pressure. The Warriors need him to fly around defensively, create loose-ball moments, and turn a clean Celtics game into something uglier and more random.
Gui Santos is the other Warriors x-factor because he has been one of the few healthy wings giving them real juice. He is averaging 8.1 points, 3.7 rebounds, and 2.1 assists while shooting 50.6% from the field. He also just had 18 points against the Wizards after a 17-point, eight-assist game against the Timberwolves. If Santos gives the Warriors another live scorer and connector, they can stay functional enough to hang around.
Prediction
The Warriors are too thin for me to buy this as a real upset spot. Podziemski is solid, Porzingis can absolutely make this interesting, and the Warriors still pass the ball well enough to steal good shots. But the Celtics have the better record, the better net rating, the better home mark, the healthier stars, and they already beat this matchup once. Unless Brown and Tatum come out sleepwalking, this should tilt their way by the middle of the second half.
Prediction: Celtics 122, Warriors 108
