The Mavericks host the Clippers at American Airlines Center on Saturday, March 21, at 8:30 p.m. ET.
The Mavericks are 23-47 and 13th in the West. The Clippers are 34-36 and eighth in the West. The home-road split matters here. The Mavericks are 14-21 at home, while the Clippers are 15-21 on the road.
The Mavericks are coming off a 135-120 loss to the Hawks on Wednesday. The Clippers just lost 105-99 to the Pelicans last Thursday and have dropped four straight.
These teams have split the season series. The Clippers won the first meeting 133-127 on November 14, and the Mavericks answered with a 114-110 win on November 29.
For the Mavericks, Cooper Flagg has posted 20.1 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 4.5 assists in his rookie season, while P.J. Washington is giving them 14.2 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 1.9 assists.
For the Clippers, Kawhi Leonard is at 28.2 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 3.6 assists, and Darius Garland has produced 18.2 points with 6.8 assists per game this season.
This matchup is really about control. The Mavericks need this game to be physical, chaotic, and possession-heavy. The Clippers need it to be clean, slow enough, and decided by shot-making in the half-court.
Injury Report
Mavericks
Kyrie Irving: Out (left knee surgery)
Dereck Lively II: Out (right foot surgery)
Brandon Williams: Out (concussion protocol)
Moussa Cisse: Questionable (G League – Two-Way)
Caleb Martin: Questionable (right heel contusion)
John Poulakidas: Questionable (G League – Two-Way)
Tyler Smith: Questionable (G League – Two-Way)
Clippers
Bradley Beal: Out (left hip fracture)
Bennedict Mathurin: Out (right toe injury recovery)
Yanic Konan Niederhauser: Out (right Lisfranc ligament tear)
Kawhi Leonard: Questionable (left ankle sprain)
Why The Mavericks Have The Advantage
The Mavericks’ best case starts with pressure points the Clippers do not always handle well. They get to the line 25.4 times per game, which ranks ninth in the league, and they grab 44.9 rebounds per game, which ranks 13th.
They also play fast at a 101.6 pace, good for fourth. That combination gives them a way to create offense without being a polished shooting team. They can run, attack the rim, and try to turn misses into second chances. Against a Clippers team with a 116.4 defensive rating, which ranks 19th, there is room for that style to work.
There is also a template already sitting in the season series. In the Mavericks’ win, they did not shoot the lights out from deep. They went 11-for-39 from three and still won because they got to the line 28 times, protected the ball with only nine turnovers, and made the game ugly enough to survive a cleaner Clippers offense. The Mavericks are only at a 110.6 offensive rating, which ranks 27th, and they are shooting 34.3% from three, also 27th. This is not a team that wants a pretty jump-shooting contest. It wants contact, free throws, and enough defensive resistance to keep the score in range.
The last piece is that the Mavericks are at least competent enough defensively to stay alive if they compete. Their 115.7 defensive rating ranks 17th, which is middle of the pack, not elite, but not hopeless either. That matters more in this matchup than usual because the Clippers are not coming in sharp. They have lost four straight, and even in the latest loss, they scored just 99 points while playing without some of their secondary creation.
If the Mavericks can turn this into a game where Flagg is constantly getting downhill, Daniel Gafford is winning the glass battle, and the crowd gets into every whistle, then the pressure flips onto the team that is supposed to be safer offensively.
Why The Clippers Have The Advantage
The simplest argument for the Clippers is still the strongest one. They are just the better offensive team. Their 116.9 offensive rating ranks 12th in the league. They are shooting 36.2% from three, which ranks 10th, and they get to the line 25.2 times per game, which ranks 11th. The Mavericks, by comparison, sit 27th in offensive rating at 110.6 and 27th in three-point percentage at 34.3. That is a real gap, not a small one. Over 48 minutes, cleaner shot creation and better perimeter efficiency usually win out unless the other team dominates the possession game.
The Clippers also have the best half-court scorer in the matchup if Leonard plays, and even if he is limited, they still have more dependable playmaking than the Mavericks. Leonard has given them 28.2 points per game on 50.4% shooting and 38.3% from three. Garland brings another layer with 18.2 points and 6.8 assists per game. That is a much easier offensive foundation to trust late in games than what the Mavericks can offer right now without Kyrie Irving. Flagg has been excellent for a rookie, but asking him to beat a veteran defense possession after possession in crunch time is still a hard bet.
Then there is the pace issue. The Clippers are comfortable playing slower, with a 96.4 pace this season. That usually helps the team with the better half-court scoring menu, and that is clearly the Clippers. They do not need a track meet to separate. In fact, a slower game probably helps them because it puts more weight on execution, spacing, and decision-making.
That is exactly where the Mavericks have struggled. Even with decent foul pressure and a solid rebounding profile, the Mavericks still average just 25.1 assists per game and too often end up taking hard shots late in the clock. If this settles into a possession-by-possession half-court game in the fourth, the Clippers have more reliable answers.
X-Factors
Klay Thompson is a major swing piece for the Mavericks. He is at 11.7 points per game and is hitting 38.2% from three. The Mavericks do not have enough shot-making to waste clean catch-and-shoot chances in a matchup like this. If Thompson hits three or four threes, the Clippers have to stay attached on the weak side, and that opens more driving lanes for Flagg and Washington. If he is cold, the floor shrinks fast, and the Clippers can crowd the paint without paying much for it.
Daniel Gafford is the other Maverick who can change the shape of the game without needing touches called for him. He has put up 9.3 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 1.3 blocks while shooting 65.6% from the field. His job is simple here. Protect the rim, finish the easy ones, and punish the Clippers if they get loose on the glass. The Mavericks are not built to win a finesse game. Gafford is one of the few players on the roster who can tilt it toward force.
Derrick Jones Jr. feels like a classic Clippers x-factor in this spot. He is producing 11.1 points, 3.1 rebounds, 1.0 steals, and 1.1 blocks while shooting 50.8% from the field. He is dangerous because he does not need the ball to hurt you. Against a young team that can lose focus off the ball, Jones can steal easy points with cuts, transition runs, and activity around the rim. Those are the possessions that can quietly swing a game the favorite is supposed to win.
Kris Dunn matters for a different reason. He is contributing 7.7 points, 3.4 rebounds, 3.6 assists, and 1.6 steals per game. His value here is not scoring. It is disruption. The Mavericks are already prone to stalled possessions and rushed decisions, especially when the first action gets blown up. Dunn is exactly the kind of guard who can make that problem worse. If he turns a few early possessions into late-clock situations, the Clippers will be in control of the game flow they want.
Prediction
I’m taking the Clippers. The Mavericks do have a path here, and it is not complicated. They have to win the line, win the glass, push the pace, and make this game feel ugly from the opening quarter. But the bigger sample still points the other way. The Clippers have the better offense, the better three-point shooting, and more dependable late-game creators. I think the Mavericks hang around for a while. I just trust the Clippers to generate the cleaner possessions late.
Prediction: Clippers 116, Mavericks 109
