A hot home team gets a good chance here. The Hawks host the Kings at State Farm Arena on Saturday, March 28, at 7:30 p.m. ET.
The Hawks are 41-33 and sixth in the East, while the Kings are 19-55 and 15th in the West. The Hawks are 21-16 at home, and the Kings are 6-30 on the road.
The two teams are not coming into this game from the same place. The Hawks lost 109-102 to the Celtics on Friday, but they had still won 14 of their previous 16 before that. The Kings lost 121-117 to the Magic on Thursday and have dropped four of their last five.
The season series already leans to the home side. The Hawks beat the Kings in the first meeting, so they lead 1-0 with one game left between them.
Jalen Johnson is averaging 22.9 points, 10.3 rebounds, and 8.1 assists, while CJ McCollum is at 18.8 points, 3.2 rebounds, and 3.9 assists.
For the Kings, DeMar DeRozan is putting up 18.4 points, 3.0 rebounds, and 4.2 assists, while Malik Monk is at 12.7 points, 1.9 rebounds, and 3.0 assists.
Injury Report
Hawks
Jonathan Kuminga: Out (left knee injury management)
Onyeka Okongwu: Out (left index finger sprain)
RayJ Dennis: Doubtful (G League two-way)
Keshon Gilbert: Doubtful (G League two-way)
Asa Newell: Doubtful (G League on assignment)
Dyson Daniels: Questionable (left great toe sprain)
Jock Landale: Questionable (right shoulder impingement)
Kings
Drew Eubanks: Out (left thumb UCL repair)
De’Andre Hunter: Out (left eye retinal repair)
Zach LaVine: Out (right 5th finger tendon repair)
Keegan Murray: Out (left ankle sprain)
Domantas Sabonis: Out (left knee meniscus repair)
Russell Westbrook: Out (right toe injury management)
Why The Hawks Have The Advantage
The first edge is the offense as a full team. The Hawks are at 115.5 in offensive rating, and they are one of the best passing teams in the league. They are currently third in assist percentage at 69.7, while running first in assists per game and assist-to-turnover ratio. That shows the same thing from two angles: this team moves the ball, and it usually gets a good shot.
That is a bad matchup for the Kings because the Kings have one of the weakest defenses in the league at 121.3 in defensive rating. The Kings allow 56.9% opponent effective field goal percentage and 121.0 opponent points per game in the season, 28th in the league. So this is not only about talent. It is also about one team that creates clean looks facing a defense that gives away too many clean looks.
The second big edge is health and lineup stability. The Hawks have a few question marks, but the Kings are without Sabonis, LaVine, Murray, Hunter, and Westbrook. That is too much creation, rebounding, and size out of one rotation. The Kings still have DeRozan and Monk, but the margin gets very small when so many top pieces are gone.
The home setup also helps. The Hawks are 21-16 at home, and they had won 11 straight home games before the recent Celtics loss and had gone 14-2 after the All-Star break at one point. The Kings are 6-30 on the road and already eliminated from playoff contention. This looks like a game where the home side should control the pace and the energy from the start.
Why The Kings Have The Advantage
The Kings’ case starts with pace and simplicity. They do not need to be better overall to stay in the game. They need to make it more random. They average 103.5 possessions per game in the season, and the Hawks are not a heavy turnover-forcing team on every night. If the Kings can get into early offense and stop the Hawks from loading up in the half-court, they at least have a path.
DeRozan is the main reason the Kings can still score enough to be annoying. He is at 18.4 points per game for the season, but had a recent stretch where he averaged 29.8 points in four of five games and then dropped 33 points and 11 assists against the Magic. If he gets to his spots in the middle of the floor, the Hawks are not some elite shutdown team that erases stars automatically.
There is also the three-point variance angle. Monk is at 12.7 points and shoots 39.5% from three, and he just had a 32-point game against the Nets a few days ago. The Kings are short-handed, so they need shotmaking swings from role players and guards. If Monk gets hot and the Hawks have a flat defensive night after playing the Celtics, the game can stay live longer than it should.
The other simple point is that the Hawks are coming off a real game against a good opponent less than 24 hours earlier. The Kings are not good, but they are still professional enough to punish a slow start. If the Hawks open the game soft on the glass or loose with the ball, they can make this more uncomfortable than the records suggest.
X-Factors
Nickeil Alexander-Walker is a real swing piece for the Hawks. He averages 20.4 points per game this season, and he has been one of the clearest reasons this group kept winning after the roster changes. He just scored 21 against the Pistons and had 26 in the blowout over the Grizzlies. If he gives the Hawks one more scorer next to Johnson and McCollum, the Kings do not have enough healthy defenders to cover everything.
Dyson Daniels belongs here if he is cleared. He had 16 points and 13 rebounds against the Pistons, and his role is bigger than the box score because he gives the Hawks another defender and another player who can push the ball without stopping the offense. Against a short-handed Kings backcourt, that kind of two-way game can swing a quarter fast.
Malik Monk is the clearest Kings x-factor. His season line is 12.7 points, 1.9 rebounds, and 3.0 assists, but that does not fully show his value in this version of the roster. With so many scorers out, the Kings need one guard who can create quick offense and make difficult shots. Monk is the player most likely to do that. If he hits pull-up threes and attacks second units, the Kings can stay within range.
Nique Clifford is another one to watch if he is able to go. His season line is modest at 7.7 points and 3.6 rebounds per game, but if he plays, the Kings need his wing size badly with Hunter and Murray both out. This is less about scoring volume and more about surviving minutes on the wing without getting overwhelmed physically.
Prediction
The Hawks should win this game, and it should not take a great performance to do it. The offense is cleaner, the passing is better, the health situation is much better, and the Kings come in with one of the league’s weakest defensive profiles plus a 6-30 road record. The Kings can still make noise if DeRozan and Monk both have big scoring nights, but over 48 minutes, the home side has too much structure for this matchup.
Prediction: Hawks 123, Kings 109
