The Celtics open their first-round series against the 76ers on Sunday, April 19, at 1:00 PM ET at TD Garden. The Celtics finished 56-26 and earned the No. 2 seed in the East. The 76ers finished 45-37, came through the play-in, and locked in the No. 7 seed. The Celtics were 30-11 at home this season, while the 76ers went 22-19 on the road.
The regular-season series ended 2-2. The 76ers won 117-116 on opening night and 102-100 on November 11. The Celtics answered with a 109-108 win on October 31 and a 114-98 win on March 25. That split needs context, though. Jayson Tatum did not play in any of the four meetings, and both 76ers wins came early, before the Celtics really found their level.
The Celtics still bring the stronger top-end talent into the series. Jaylen Brown finished the season at 28.7 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 5.1 assists, while Tatum put up 21.8 points, 10.0 rebounds, and 5.3 assists in 16 games after returning from his Achilles injury.
The 76ers counter with Tyrese Maxey, who posted 28.3 points, 6.6 assists, and 4.1 rebounds, and Paul George, who gave them 17.3 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 3.6 assists. The 76ers also come in with some momentum after beating the Magic 109-97 in the play-in behind Maxey’s 31 points, VJ Edgecombe’s 19 points and 11 rebounds, Kelly Oubre Jr.’s 19 points, and Andre Drummond’s 14 points and 10 rebounds.
The biggest injury note is Joel Embiid. He had an appendectomy late in the regular season, has no return timeline, and he’s still out of the series amid rumors of availability. For the Celtics, Derrick White, Payton Pritchard, Sam Hauser, Neemias Queta, and Hugo Gonzalez were listed as game-time decisions.
Celtics Analysis For The Series
The Celtics have the better team profile, and it is not close enough to ignore. They finished second in offensive rating at 120.8, fourth in defensive rating at 112.7, and fourth in net rating at plus-8.1. They ranked in the top five on both ends for the fourth straight season, which is the cleanest sign of a real contender. This is not a team that needs one hot week to look dangerous. The full-year numbers already say it.
The offense is especially strong because it does not depend on one thing. The Celtics were only 11th in effective field goal percentage and last in free-throw rate, but they still finished near the top of the league in offense because they were top five in turnover rate and offensive rebound percentage. That matters in this matchup. The Celtics do not just score through shot-making. They also protect possessions and create extra ones. Over a series, that is hard to deal with.
The Tatum piece changes the entire matchup. The 76ers went 2-2 against the Celtics this season, but Tatum missed every one of those games. So the regular-season split is real, but it is incomplete. The 76ers have not played the full version of this team yet. The Celtics already had a top-two offense without him for most of the year, and now they get another big wing creator, rebounder, and passer back in the series.
Jaylen Brown is the other reason this series leans so strongly toward the Celtics. He was not just steady this season. He carried a star-level load while Tatum was out, and his 28.7 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 5.1 assists show that clearly. The Celtics did not just survive the early part of the year without Tatum. Brown helped keep them near the top of the East anyway. In a first-round series, having that kind of second star is a major edge, especially against a team missing Embiid.
The main danger for the Celtics is not talent. It is focus. When the Celtics keep their offense organized, attack weak defenders, and move from one action to the next, they usually create separation. When they drift into bad isolations or casual late-game offense, the door opens. That matters here because the 76ers had the league’s best clutch defensive rating at 98.6, and both of their wins over the Celtics were close games. If they keep this series out of the mud, they should control it. If not, it can get more annoying than it should.
76ers Analysis For The Series
The 76ers come into this series with one clear advantage over a lot of lower seeds. They are not guessing what playoff pressure feels like. They just had to win a play-in game to get here, and they did it without Embiid. Maxey had 31, Edgecombe had 19 and 11, Oubre added 19, Drummond had a double-double, and the group closed the game well in the final six minutes. That gives them a real base of confidence going into Game 1.
The broader season profile is still much weaker than the Celtics’. The 76ers finished with a 115.4 offensive rating, a 115.5 defensive rating, and a net rating of minus-0.2. That put them around the middle of the league on offense and defense, and well behind the Celtics in overall balance. So this is not a team that can just point to the 2-2 season series and act like the matchup is even. Over 82 games, it was not.
The Embiid absence is the biggest reason why. The 76ers were plus-5.8 per 100 possessions with Embiid on the floor in the regular season, and they were minus-3.6 without him. In 396 regular-season minutes with Maxey and George on the floor without Embiid, the 76ers scored only 110.8 points per 100 possessions and outscored opponents by a total of one point. That is not enough offensive force for a series against a team like the Celtics unless everything else goes right.
That said, the 76ers do have one real path. They can make games ugly. They went 30-10 when they allowed 114 points per 100 possessions or fewer, and just 15-27 when they allowed more than 114. That split says everything. The 76ers are not built to outrun the Celtics in a clean offensive series, especially without Embiid. They need defense, long possessions, and close finishes. That is where their clutch numbers become important. Their 98.6 clutch defensive rating was the best in the league.
Maxey is the player who gives that formula life. He led the league in minutes per game, finished the season at 28.3 points and 6.6 assists, and then came right into the play-in and scored 31 with 11 in the fourth quarter. He can keep the 76ers in a game almost by himself for stretches. The question is whether the Celtics can load up on him over a full series and make the other guys do too much. That is where Edgecombe and George become important.
The rookie piece is real here. Edgecombe had 34 points in the opening-night win in Boston, and he is one of the swing players in this series because the Celtics are going to put so much attention on Maxey. If Edgecombe attacks closeouts, runs the floor, and stays aggressive when Maxey gives the ball up, the 76ers can keep their offense alive. If that secondary creation dries up, then too much of the series falls on Maxey hitting hard shots against a loaded defense.
Key Factors
Derrick White is one of the biggest swing players in the series because the Celtics do not need him to create the offense, but they do need him to sharpen it. He averaged 16.5 points, 5.4 assists, and 4.4 rebounds this season, but his shooting dipped badly, with his effective field goal percentage falling to 48.9. That’s one of the key things to watch in the series. The reason is simple. If White hits open threes and second-side jumpers, the Celtics’ offense becomes much harder to load up against. He is already one of their best defenders. If the shot comes back too, the gap gets wider.
Neemias Queta is another huge factor because the Embiid injury changes the frontcourt dominance. Queta averaged 10.2 points, 8.4 rebounds, and 1.3 blocks while shooting 65.3% from the field, and he had a monster game against the 76ers on March 1 with 27 points, 17 rebounds, and three blocks. The Celtics do not need post touches for him. They need rim runs, offensive rebounds, and paint defense. If Queta wins the glass and finishes plays cleanly, the 76ers’ margin shrinks fast because they do not have Embiid to answer that size inside.
VJ Edgecombe feels like the most important non-star in the series for the 76ers. He averaged 16.0 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 4.2 assists as a rookie, then came into the play-in and posted 19 points and 11 rebounds. He also already showed he is comfortable in this matchup by scoring 34 in the opening-night win over the Celtics. The 76ers are going to need more than Maxey. They need another ballhandler and downhill threat who can keep the offense moving when Boston traps or switches. That is Edgecombe’s job now.
Andre Drummond is the other 76ers player I keep circling because his role becomes a lot bigger without Embiid. He averaged 6.4 points, 8.4 rebounds, and 1.3 assists this season, and he gave the 76ers 14 points and 10 rebounds in the play-in win over the Magic. This series is going to be hard enough offensively for the Sixers. It gets much worse if they lose the rebound battle badly again. Drummond has to end possessions, steal a few second chances, and keep the Celtics from owning the paint. If he does not, the Celtics can make this series short.
Prediction
The 76ers are good enough to make this annoying. Maxey can win a game by himself. Their clutch defense is real. Edgecombe looks ready for the stage. And the Celtics did not exactly dominate the season series. But the bigger picture still points one way. The Celtics were much better across the full season, they now have Tatum available after he missed every regular-season meeting, and the 76ers are opening the series without Embiid. The numbers without him are just too shaky against a team this complete. I think the 76ers steal one because Maxey goes off and the game gets tight late. Over the full series, though, the Celtics have too many ways to win.
Winner: Celtics in 5
