In today’s NBA, long-term loyalty between stars and franchises is becoming more uncommon. While some players are signing supermax deals, the futures of other players with their teams are looking questionable. In addition, the new CBA deal makes it more difficult for teams to retain players with high contracts for an extended period.
In this article, we’ll break down the current NBA stars with the highest and lowest percent chances of retiring with their current team.
Tier 1: 90% (Very Likely)
Stephen Curry, Nikola Jokic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Devin Booker
Stephen Curry retiring with the Warriors is almost 100% guaranteed. Curry has already spent all 16 years of his career with the Warriors, and there are no indications he’ll leave for any reason.
Nikola Jokic retiring with the Nuggets is almost guaranteed as well. He has shown no interest in the spotlight or big-market distractions that could be a reason to leave Denver. He’s already won a championship and three MVP awards with the Nuggets, and Denver has built the perfect roster around his unique playstyle. On top of that, Jokic is under contract through 2028 and has never hinted at wanting out. Given his loyalty, low-maintenance personality, and deep ties to the organization, it’s hard to imagine him wearing any other jersey.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander couldn’t be more elated with the Oklahoma City Thunder after his 2025 MVP season and winning a championship. With Gilgeous-Alexander as their franchise superstar, along with other talented young players, OKC is built to remain a contender for a very long time. The chance of Shai leaving the Thunder before he retires is very unlikely.
This upcoming season will be Devin Booker’s tenth year with the Phoenix Suns, and his current contract goes all the way through 2030. He’s been with them through the ups and downs of the franchise’s recent history, but he has remained fully committed, and the Suns have remained committed. Suns owner Matt Ishbia stated in July that “Devin Booker is part of our future and our present, and we’re gonna build around him and hopefully make the fans proud, that’s what I’m most excited about.”
Tier 2: 75% (Probably)
Luka Doncic, Kawhi Leonard, Damian Lillard, Jayson Tatum, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jalen Brunson, Victor Wembanyama, Jalen Williams
Luka Doncic recently signed a $165 million contract extension with the Lakers that goes through 2028. As the new face of the Lakers franchise, Luka will be the superstar player the Lakers will build around over the next several years in hopes of contending for a title. If the Lakers build around him properly, it’s more likely than not that he’ll retire in the purple and gold.
Kawhi Leonard has already spent five seasons with the Clippers and signed a three-year extension earlier this year, keeping him in L.A. through 2027. Despite his injury history, the Clippers have remained fully committed to him, and he’s shown loyalty in return. Kawhi was born and raised in Southern California and has made it clear that being close to home matters to him. While the injuries add some uncertainty, his strong ties to the Clippers organization and his preference for L.A. suggest that he’ll likely finish his career there.
Damian Lillard has officially returned to the Portland Trail Blazers, the franchise he spent his first 11 NBA seasons with. In July, Portland brought him back on a three-year, $42 million deal that included a player option in 2027 and a no-trade clause. It’s unlikely Lillard will try to leave Portland again after the failed experiment with the Bucks. The Trail Blazers have a good, young team that could potentially contend for a title in a few years with Dame.
Jayson Tatum is entering his prime with a roster built to win now and for the future. The only issue is that he ruptured his Achilles tendon in the 2025 playoffs, which will sideline him for the majority of the 2025-26 season. The Celtics likely won’t find much success next year, but in the long term, their future is still bright. Jayson Tatum is the Celtics’ franchise player, and it’s most likely he’ll stay in Boston, looking for another ring before he retires.
The Giannis Antetokounmpo trade speculations have been swirling around this offseason, but no trade request has been made. The Bucks’ supporting cast around Antetokounmpo is questionable, and it’s unclear whether Giannis is going to have enough help to truly compete for another championship. Despite this uncertainty, Giannis has already spent 12 loyal years in Milwaukee and has stated he loves playing for the Bucks. It’s possible he leaves in search of a better situation and retires with a different team, but it’s more likely he’ll stay in Milwaukee and retire as a Buck.
Jalen Brunson has quickly become the heart of the New York Knicks, and his recent decision to take a discounted extension shows his commitment. Instead of waiting for a supermax, Brunson signed a four-year, $156.5 million deal to give the team more flexibility to build a contender. He’s embraced the pressure of New York, elevated his game in the playoffs, and clearly wants to win in the Garden. Unless the Knicks collapse or dramatically change direction, it feels likely that Brunson finishes his career in New York.
Victor Wembanyama is only 21 years old, yet it’s already fair to say he’ll most likely retire with the Spurs. In an interview earlier this year, Wembanyama stated, “I know that not every player in the NBA has the same ambitions, but it’s obviously my dream to spend my entire career with a single franchise… Here. In San Antonio.”
Jalen Williams just signed a new five-year, $250M rookie max extension in July after the Thunder won the 2025 finals. At just 24 years old, he’s already one of the league’s brightest young stars and looks poised to have a long, successful career in Oklahoma City with a strong chance of retiring with the Thunder.
Tier 3: 50% (Uncertain)
LeBron James, Joel Embiid, Anthony Davis, Anthony Edwards, Paolo Banchero, Cade Cunningham, Jimmy Butler
How LeBron James will finish his career is very intriguing. He’s currently entering year 23 and is still playing at a high level, but his long-term plans are unclear. He’s made it known that he wants to share the court with his son, Bronny, which could influence where he plays for his last few seasons if Bronny remains with the Lakers. LeBron also wants to compete for a championship, so if he feels like the Lakers are trying to build to win in the future and not now, he could leave L.A. after the 2026 season when his contract expires. With all these possibilities considered, it’s a toss-up on whether LeBron will retire with the Lakers or not.
The majority of Joel Embiid’s career with the 76ers has been a mess. Outside of his 2023 MVP season, his time in Philly has been filled with endless injuries and missing game after game. At 31 years old, it’s unclear how Philadelphia will move forward with Embiid. If he’s able to finally overcome his constant injury issues, the 76ers could keep him for trying to contend for a championship, but if he continues to miss games, he could also possibly get traded, and Philadelphia could build around their current young and talented players, such as Tyrese Maxey, Jared McCain, and V.J. Edgecombe.
Similar to Joel Embiid, Anthony Davis‘ career has also been filled with injuries, especially in the past few seasons. The Mavericks’ timeline is interesting, as they have both aging stars like Kyrie Irving, Anthony Davis, and Klay Thompson, but also young talent like Cooper Flagg and Derick Lively. The Mavericks will be going all-in to win regardless, so the chances that Davis stays in Dallas until he retires are about 50/50.
Anthony Edwards, Cade Cunningham, and Paolo Banchero are three of the best young stars in the NBA. Edwards was the 2020 first overall draft pick, Cunningham was the 2021 first overall pick, and Banchero was the 2022 first overall pick. They have all lived up to their expectations so far in their NBA careers. It’s unclear at this point how loyal these young players are or if they have any desire to play for a big market team in the future. If the Timberwolves, Pistons, or Magic are good enough to contend for the majority of their careers in the future, they could stay. There are also a variety of reasons they could leave in the future as well, so it’s hard to predict whether these three stars will retire with their current teams as of now, so they’re in the 50% range.
Jimmy Butler signed a two-year, $111 million extension with the Golden State Warriors after he was traded from the Miami Heat in February 2025, keeping him with the Warriors through the 2026-27 season unless he unexpectedly requests another trade. Butler claimed he got his love back for basketball after joining the Warriors, so it’s possible he stays with them until he retires, but also considering his trade request history and moving teams, it’s not certain what team he’ll finish his career with.
Tier 4: 35% (Probably Not)
Kevin Durant, Donovan Mitchell, James Harden, Tyrese Haliburton, Trae Young, Kyrie Irving
After signing with the Houston Rockets this offseason, the Rockets will be Kevin Durant’s fifth team he’s played with in the NBA. The Rockets have a very talented team that will look to win a championship over the next few seasons with KD. Retiring in Houston is possible, but with Durant, nothing ever feels permanent.
The Cavaliers are coming off their best regular season in franchise history after notching 64 wins with only 18 losses. Donovan Mitchell finished 5th in the MVP race and made the All-NBA first team, marking the most successful season of his career. If the Cavaliers are healthy next season and become a real contender for the next several seasons, there’s still a path where Donovan Mitchell remains a Cavalier for the remainder of his career. But based on the current trajectory, it’s more likely than not that Mitchell finishes his career elsewhere.
After a couple of rough years, James Harden resurged as an elite player this last 2025 season for the Clippers. In June, after the season ended, he opted out of his player option to sign an $81.5 million two-year deal with the Clippers. While this keeps him in Los Angeles for now, the Clippers likely won’t be a contender two years from now when Harden’s contract expires because of the old age of the team. Assuming Harden doesn’t have an early retirement in two years, he’ll probably go somewhere else to finish his career with a better, contending team than the Clippers will be in the future.
Tyrese Haliburton and Trae Young are two similar players playstyle-wise, and they are also both the franchise players of two small-market teams. It’s unlikely that either of them will stick with their current teams for the remainder of their careers, or leave and then come back to their team before they retire, especially Trae Young, since he’s reportedly frustrated that the Hawks haven’t offered him a contract extension. There’s about a 35% probability for both of these players to retire with their current teams.
Kyrie Irving has found stability with the Dallas Mavericks… at least for now. After years of bouncing between teams and clashing with front offices, his partnership with Luka Doncic led to a Finals run in 2024 and reminded fans of just how impactful he can be when locked in. Still, Kyrie’s track record makes it hard to predict his long-term future. He’s under contract through 2027, and given his unpredictable nature and history of abrupt exits, it’s difficult to say he’ll finish his career in Dallas. There’s a path where it happens, but the odds are definitely tilted toward him finishing elsewhere.
Tier 5: 20% (Very Unlikely)
LaMelo Ball, Zion Williamson, Ja Morant
LaMelo Ball is the face of the Hornets right now, but it’s tough to envision him spending his entire career in Charlotte. While he’s signed through 2029, LaMelo’s flashy game and off-court personality suggest he might eventually seek a bigger stage. He thrives in the spotlight, and a major market like Los Angeles or New York could better align with his personality and interests. If the Hornets can’t build a winning team around him soon, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him explore a move to a franchise that offers both a larger platform and a chance to contend.
Zion Williamson’s career trajectory isn’t looking good, especially considering the high expectations that were placed on him from being the first pick in the 2019 draft. With his history of various issues, mainly regarding food and health, the Pelicans don’t have a perfect relationship with Williamson. Unless he has a big turnaround and becomes a superstar all of a sudden, there’s very little chance Zion stays with the Pelicans for the remainder of his career.
Ja Morant has become the centerpiece of the Memphis Grizzlies, but his long-term future with the franchise is uncertain. Similar to Zion, he’s also had off-court controversies that haven’t helped his image. Ja has the talent and charisma to be the face of a major-market team, and if Memphis can’t surround him with the right pieces or stability, he’ll most definitely finish his career somewhere else.
