The first team to be eliminated from playoff contention this season will be revealed tonight as the No. 10 seed Golden State Warriors travel to face the No. 9 seed Sacramento Kings in the Play-In Tournament. The winner will face the loser of the Lakers vs. Pelicans game from earlier in the night, while the loser will see their 2023-24 season come to a close.
The Kings were battling for a top-six seed for most of the season until Malik Monk suffered a season-ending injury in March, after which the team slid from the No. 6 seed to No. 9. They’ll be without Monk for this crucial clash as well, though Domantas Sabonis and De’Aaron Fox are a lethal one-two punch who could defeat any NBA team on a given night.
The Warriors have been on a tear over the last few weeks, going from defending the No. 10 seed against a surging Rockets team to being in contention for a top-eight seed till the final week of the season. Despite finishing the season 8-2 and earning high-quality wins, the Warriors couldn’t climb past the No. 10 seed and have the hardest road to the playoffs in the West.
Let’s analyze our expert picks and injury updates ahead of this potentially season-ending clash for one of the two teams.
Golden State Warriors At Sacramento Kings – 10:00 PM EST
Warriors Last 10 Games: 8-2
Kings Last 10 Games: 4-6
Warriors Injuries: Gary Payton II – Out (Calf)
Kings Injuries: Malik Monk – Out (Knee), Kevin Huerter – Out (Shoulder)
Last 5 Meetings: Warriors Lead 3-2
Warriors Advantages
The Golden State Warriors (46-36) had a phenomenal end to the season, winning 10 of their last 12 games and coming into the postseason as one of the hottest teams in the league. After a lot of upheaval, the Warriors have found the camaraderie and rotational certainty needed to have a successful season. The Warriors’ offensive unit in sync is still basically unguardable, and that scoring ability is going to be their biggest advantage.
Draymond Green can be the primary reason behind a Warriors’ win tonight because he might be one of the few centers equipped with the tools to limit Domantas Sabonis. Green and Sabonis have a rivalry from their playoff clashes last season, so it’ll be interesting to see if Green can repeat his defensive heroics from last season. Sabonis averaged 16.4 points and 11.0 rebounds in the seven-game series loss to the Warriors, primarily because of Green.
Stephen Curry is an advantage on his own just because of his ability to change games with a few made shots. The Kings could enjoy a 12-point lead that Curry could cut down to nine within a minute if his shooting form is hot. He demolished the Kings’ defense in their 2023 playoff matchup, with Sacramento not being able to read or stop Curry’s off-ball movement from slicing them apart, as evidenced by his 50-point Game 7 classic.
The biggest advantage that the Warriors have is the same thing they had last season, which is experience. Golden State are tried and tested in must-win situations, which is why how they won Game 7 in Sacramento’s home arena last season. The Warriors are better prepared for moments like this and have to favored to deliver on this stage once again.
Kings Advantages
The Sacramento Kings (46-36) earned home-court advantage for this matchup on tiebreakers against Golden State, beating the Warriors twice this season while having a better divisional record. They have a fast-paced and younger team, though two key rotational players are out with Monk and Huerter. Their late-season slump has been exaggerated, as the Kings lost to high-quality opponents like the Knicks, Pelicans, Celtics, Suns, and Thunder.
Domantas Sabonis has single-handedly won matchups for the Kings this season, dominating elite centers around the NBA. However, he struggled in the same matchup with Draymond Green last season. Based on the progression Sabonis showed this season, he should be able to handle a Draymond matchup, given the way he’s excelled against tougher opponents such as Anthony Davis and Rudy Gobert. Sabonis is technically sound enough to play the IQ game with Draymond while relying on his physical strengths to impact the game.
The Kings’ forward line isn’t elite, but the combination of Harrison Barnes and Keegan Murray adds an offensive panache to the Kings’ lineup that’s hard to beat. Murray is one of the best shooters in the NBA, while the Kings are almost unbeatable when Barnes shows up offensively.
The secret weapon the Kings have unleashed since Kevin Huerter’s injury has been Keon Ellis. Ellis will likely start next to De’Aaron Fox in the backcourt and will have the responsibility of chasing Stephen Curry around the court. The Kings didn’t have a defender like him last season with the motor and ability to keep up with Steph. While Curry can still put up numbers, Ellis is a capable enough defender to make the Warriors guard uncomfortable for 48 minutes with his non-stop pressure and active hands.
Who Will Win: Warriors Or Kings?
The Warriors might be on the road but it’s hard to say how the Kings can emerge victorious in this contest. The lack of Monk has deeply hurt their offense, as they were incapable of competing against playoff teams after Monk went down. In addition, they don’t have the defensive solidity required to limit the Warriors, though I am excited to see if Keon Ellis can leave a mark on the matchup.
The Warriors are red-hot right now, with Curry proving to the world all season long that he can answer the call when his team needs him most. The favorite to win Clutch Player of the Year this season will live up to the billing in what will be a fascinating contest.
Prediction: Warriors def. Kings 125-119
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