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Home > NBA News & Analysis > Hall Of Fame Probability By Tiers For Active NBA Players

Hall Of Fame Probability By Tiers For Active NBA Players

We have the breakdown of which active NBA players will be Hall of Famers and which will miss out or need to achieve more before receiving consideration.

Eddie Bitar
Dec 26, 2023
30 Min Read
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Credit: Fadeaway World

There are a host of active NBA players who will no doubt be first-ballot Hall of Famers as their records, achievements, and statistics speak for themselves. There are also current NBA players who will one day make the Hall of Fame but might not be first-ballot, while others are running out of time to even make the consideration.

Contents
  • First-Ballot
  • Hall Of Fame
  • Tough But Possible
  • Close But Not Enough
  • In The Right Direction

With so many young stars in the league as well, there is plenty of time for them to one day make Hall of Fame consideration as they are on the right track towards future greatness. We have collected the assortment of active NBA players who will be split into five different tiers regarding Hall of Fame probability: First-Ballot, Hall of Fame, Tough But Possible, Close But Not Enough, and In The Right Direction. 


First-Ballot

LeBron James, Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Nikola Jokic, Joel Embiid, Chris Paul, James Harden, Russell Westbrook, Kawhi Leonard, Anthony Davis, Klay Thompson

LeBron James, often regarded as one of the greatest basketball players of all time, has left an indelible impact on the NBA. With four NBA championships and four MVP awards, LeBron has showcased his ability to elevate his game in critical moments, all while accumulating impressive all-around statistics, cementing his legacy as a generational talent. His four Finals MVPs rank second all-time behind Michael Jordan; he will break the record for most All-Star selections this season with 20, and his All-NBA selections rank first all-time (19). Completing nearly 21 years at the highest level and currently the all-time leading scorer, James is a first-ballot Hall of Famer as a top-five player to have ever played the game.

Stephen Curry revolutionized the game with his transcendent three-point shooting, guiding the Golden State Warriors to four championships and redefining the role of a point guard. As a two-time MVP, Curry’s influence extends beyond his scoring ability, as he fundamentally changed how teams approach offensive strategies, emphasizing the importance of long-range shooting and spacing on the court. No player has made more threes in history than Curry and he will obviously retire as a first-ballot Hall of Famer.

Kevin Durant’s scoring prowess and offensive efficiency have made him a perennial All-Star and a key figure in two championship runs with the Warriors. With four scoring titles, two NBA Finals MVP awards, and an impressive blend of size and skill, Durant’s impact on the court is characterized by his ability to take over games and deliver in clutch moments. Holding a career 27.4 PPG average which ranks fifth all-time, Durant’s raw skill makes him a first-ballot Hall of Famer.

Giannis Antetokounmpo, the “Greek Freak,” has dominated with his unparalleled combination of size, athleticism, and skill, earning two MVP awards and leading the Milwaukee Bucks to an NBA championship in the 2020-21 season. Along with a Defensive Player of the Year award, Giannis has accumulated seven All-Star and seven All-NBA Team selections as he still has more than a handful of years left to keep adding to his resume.

As the reigning Finals MVP MVP, Nikola Jokic has redefined the center position with his exceptional passing and basketball IQ, making him the focal point of the Denver Nuggets’ offense. Jokic’s unique skill set as a playmaking center, along with his scoring and rebounding, has solidified him as one of the most valuable and impactful players in the league. He is posting 20.5 PPG, 10.6 RPG, and 6.8 APG over his career and has a resume that includes two MVPs, an NBA title, and a Finals MVP trophy.

Joel Embiid’s dominant presence in the paint, coupled with his scoring ability and defensive prowess, has established him as one of the premier centers in the NBA. A perennial All-Star, Embiid’s impact on both ends of the floor has been crucial to the Philadelphia 76ers’ success in recent seasons as he looks to win his first championship. The big man already has two scoring titles, an MVP trophy, and six All-Star selections to his name as he aims to one day usurp Allen Iverson and Julius Erving as the best player to ever play for the Philadelphia franchise.

Chris Paul, a maestro of floor management and leadership, has consistently elevated the performance of every team he’s played for, earning the nickname “The Point God.” The point guard’s resume is simply unbelievable as he has completed 18 years in the league, holding 12 All-Star selections, 11 All-NBA selections, nine All-Defensive selections, five assist titles, and six steals titles. Paul is the epitome of a perfect point guard and he will retire as a Hall of Famer without any doubt.

James Harden’s scoring prowess, especially with his step-back three-pointer and clever methods to draw fouls, has made him one of the most dynamic offensive players in the league. With three scoring titles and an MVP award when he posted 30.4 PPG and 8.8 APG in 2017-18, Harden’s impact on the game is surreal. Even if his reputation is taking a hit due to his willingness to destroy team chemistry and leave teams, Harden is one of the greatest offensive players ever and that is indisputable.

Russell Westbrook’s explosive athleticism and relentless playing style have resulted in the game’s most career triple-doubles, solidifying his place as one of the most dynamic point guards in the league. A former MVP who posted 31.6 PPG, 10.7 RPG, and 10.4 APG in 2016-17, Westbrook’s impact is defined by his ability to contribute across multiple statistical categories, showcasing his tenacity and competitiveness on a nightly basis. Whatever critics have to say about Westbrook, his place in the Hall of Fame is solidified.

Kawhi Leonard, a two-time NBA Finals MVP and one of the greatest two-way talents ever has built a reputation as a lockdown defender and clutch performer, guiding the Toronto Raptors and the San Antonio Spurs to championships. Leonard’s impact goes beyond his offensive and defensive skills; his calm demeanor and ability to deliver in critical moments have solidified him as one of the premier players in the league year after year since 2014. Adding in two Defensive Player of the Year awards, Leonard has to be a top 50 player of all time.

Anthony Davis, with his exceptional skills as a versatile big man, has been a defensive anchor and offensive powerhouse for the New Orleans Pelicans and Los Angeles Lakers. As an NBA champion and eight-time All-Star, Davis’ impact is evident in his shot-blocking ability, rebounding, and scoring versatility, making him a crucial component of successful playoff runs. Even if his motor and toughness have been questioned in recent seasons, Davis’ talent is undeniably great, and his resume which currently includes eight All-Star appearances along with four All-NBA appearances will one day make him a Hall of Famer.

Klay Thompson’s elite three-point shooting, combined with his defensive prowess, has been instrumental in the Golden State Warriors’ championship victories. A key member of the famed “Splash Brothers,” Thompson’s impact extends beyond his scoring ability, as he’s often tasked with guarding the opposing team’s best perimeter player, showcasing his two-way excellence. An underrated All-Star, the five-time All-Star and four-time NBA champion is regarded as arguably the second-greatest shooter ever and that means he will enter the Hall of Fame as a first-ballot.


Hall Of Fame

Jimmy Butler, Kyrie Irving, Damian Lillard, Paul George, Draymond Green, Rudy Gobert

Jimmy Butler’s ascent to NBA stardom has been marked by his tenacious work ethic, leadership, and clutch performances, notably guiding the Miami Heat to the NBA Finals twice in 2020 and 2023. A six-time All-Star and Olympic gold medalist, Butler’s impact goes beyond traditional statistics, as his tenacity on both ends of the court and ability to lead by example make him a strong candidate for future Hall of Fame consideration one day.

Kyrie Irving’s mesmerizing ball-handling skills and scoring ability have made him one of the most electrifying players in the league, culminating in crucial moments during championship runs with the Cleveland Cavaliers, Brooklyn Nets, and now the Dallas Mavericks. An eight-time All-Star and NBA champion who hit one of the most clutch baskets in an NBA Finals ever, Irving’s impact extends beyond his flashy moves, as he possesses the ability to take over games and deliver in pressure situations, enhancing his Hall of Fame credentials.

Damian Lillard, often referred to as “Dame Time,” has consistently showcased his scoring prowess and leadership for the Portland Trail Blazers, earning seven All-Star selections and seven All-NBA Team honors. Even if he has yet to win a major award outside of the Rookie of the Year, Lillard was named to the All-NBA 75th Anniversary Team because his offensive talents are without a doubt all-time great. If he can win a championship with the Milwaukee Bucks, we could be looking at a first-ballot Hall of Famer.

Paul George, known for his two-way excellence, has been a perennial All-Star and key contributor to successful playoff runs with the Indiana Pacers, Oklahoma City Thunder, and the Los Angeles Clippers. One of the best two-way players of his generation, George has made eight All-Star Teams, six All-NBA Team appearances, and four All-Defensive Team selections. The 2012-13 Most Improved Player has the skills of a Hall of Famer, but he might need to wait a few rounds to get in.

Draymond Green’s impact on the Golden State Warriors dynasty is undeniable, with his defensive prowess, basketball IQ, and unselfish playmaking earning him four All-Star selections, the 2017-17 Defensive Player of the Year trophy, and four NBA championships. A linchpin in the Warriors’ success, Green’s ability to impact the game without necessarily scoring showcases his unique value, contributing to a Hall of Fame resume built on versatility, leadership, and toughness.

Rudy Gobert, a dominant force in the paint, has redefined the role of the modern-day center with his shot-blocking, rebounding, and defensive presence. A three-time Defensive Player of the Year and six-time All-Defensive Team member, Gobert’s impact goes beyond traditional statistics, as his rim protection and ability to anchor a defense could one day result in him making the Hall of Fame. After all, only Dikembe Mutombo and Ben Wallace (both Hall of Famers) have more Defensive Player of the Year trophies than “The Stifle Tower”.


Tough But Possible

Derrick Rose, DeMar DeRozan, Kyle Lowry, Blake Griffin

Derrick Rose’s career has been a rollercoaster of highs and lows, from becoming the youngest MVP in NBA history in 2011 (25.0 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 7.7 APG) to battling through significant injuries. Despite facing adversity, Rose’s impact and resilience have been evident, with his scoring ability and athleticism earning him three All-Star selections. While injuries have tempered his trajectory, his remarkable talent early on which also added Rookie of the Year trophy might one day get him in the Hall of Fame.

DeMar DeRozan, a six-time All-Star and three-time All-NBA Team selection has consistently been a prolific scorer and playmaker throughout his career, notably with the Toronto Raptors, San Antonio Spurs, and Chicago Bulls. DeRozan’s mid-range prowess and offensive versatility, coupled with his leadership qualities, contribute to a compelling Hall of Fame argument, especially since he has averaged over 20 PPG for 11 seasons so far.

Kyle Lowry’s impact on the Toronto Raptors, particularly during their championship run in 2019, has solidified his status as one of the premier point guards in the league during his prime. A six-time All-Star and Olympic gold medalist, Lowry’s leadership, defensive tenacity, and ability to impact the game in various facets position him as a player with a credible Hall of Fame case, although it will be difficult for him to get in.

Blake Griffin’s early career was defined by his explosive athleticism and highlight-reel dunks, earning him six All-Star selections with the Los Angeles Clippers and Detroit Pistons. While injuries have altered the trajectory of his game, Griffin’s reinvention as a skilled playmaker and three-point shooter shows the basketball IQ he possesses. The former architect of “Lob City” with the Clippers and the 2010-11 Rookie of the Year, Griffin has a tough road to make the Hall of Fame but his vicious highlight-reel dunks might convince a few voters.


Close But Not Enough

Al Horford, Kevin Love, Bradley Beal, John Wall, Zach LaVine, Jrue Holiday

Al Horford’s steady and versatile contributions as a reliable big man have been crucial to the success of multiple teams, including the Atlanta Hawks, Boston Celtics, and Philadelphia 76ers. A five-time All-Star and consummate team player, Horford’s leadership and well-rounded skill set make him a respected figure in the league. While he might fall short of being a Hall of Famer, sustained excellence and team success could enhance his legacy regardless.

Kevin Love’s career has been marked by his impressive scoring and rebounding abilities, notably during his tenure with the Minnesota Timberwolves and the Cleveland Cavaliers, where he won an NBA championship. A five-time All-Star, Olympic gold medalist, and the 2010-11 Most Improved Player, Love’s versatility as a big man who can stretch the floor adds a unique dimension to his resume. He might not get in, however, because he has not achieved anything to weigh in the Hall of Fame conversation since leaving the Cleveland Cavaliers.

Bradley Beal’s scoring prowess and offensive skill set have made him one of the premier shooting guards in the league, earning three All-Star selections with the Washington Wizards. Beal’s trajectory toward the Hall of Fame will likely hinge on sustained excellence, individual accolades, and potential playoff success with the Phoenix Suns although he is 30 years old and hasn’t played at least 65 games since the 2019-20 season so he might be running out of time.

John Wall, a former No. 1 overall pick, showcased elite speed and playmaking ability during his prime with the Washington Wizards. Five All-Star selections and a reputation as one of the league’s top point guards highlight Wall’s impact. However, injuries have disrupted his career, and his Hall of Fame chances have diminished since the 2017-18 season which marked his last All-Star appearance.

Zach LaVine’s emergence as a high-scoring guard with explosive athleticism has turned heads in the NBA. A two-time Slam Dunk Contest champion, LaVine’s potential Hall of Fame case will depend on continued improvement, All-Star selections, and perhaps postseason success. So far, two All-Star appearances and a career 20.5 PPG scoring average won’t cut it.

Jrue Holiday’s reputation as an elite defender and a reliable two-way player has been a consistent theme throughout his career, with multiple All-Defensive Team selections. A key contributor to the Milwaukee Bucks’ championship run in 2021, Holiday’s impact goes beyond traditional statistics. If Holiday wins another title with the Boston Celtics this season, he might move up a tier but that is also questionable considering he has two All-Star and five All-NBA Team selections at nearly 34 years old and time could be running out.


In The Right Direction

Luka Doncic, Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Karl-Anthony Towns, Jamal Murray, Domantas Sabonis, Trae Young, Donovan Mitchell, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Tyrese Haliburton, Ja Morant, Anthony Edwards, Devin Booker, Zion Williamson, Pascal Siakam, De’Aaron Fox, Jaren Jackson Jr., LaMelo Ball, Bam Adebayo, Tyrese Maxey, Scottie Barnes, Paolo Banchero, Victor Wembanyama, Chet Holmgren

Luka Doncic has rapidly become one of the NBA’s brightest talents, showcasing an impressive repertoire of skills that include scoring, playmaking, and rebounding for the Dallas Mavericks. The young Slovenian has career averages of 28.0 PPG, 8.6 RPG, and 8.1 APG and already has four All-Star appearances to his name. As he continues to be in the MVP conversation, the 24-year-old will one day be a Hall of Famer.

Jayson Tatum, a four-time NBA All-Star, has solidified his role as a cornerstone for the Boston Celtics. Tatum’s scoring versatility and defensive prowess make him a vital asset for the team’s success. With a Finals appearance to his name and a strong chance to win the NBA title and Finals MVP trophy this season, the superstar forward will one day etch his name into Celtics lore.

Jaylen Brown’s development into an All-Star-caliber player alongside Tatum has been instrumental for the Boston Celtics. Brown’s scoring ability and defensive skills provide a complementary dynamic to Tatum, forming one of the league’s formidable duos. Brown signed the largest contract in NBA history and has two All-Star appearances to his name, so fans will expect the player to continue building on his resume because he is not close to consideration right now.

Karl-Anthony Towns, a three-time All-Star, stands out as a dominant force for the Minnesota Timberwolves. His unique skill set, combining scoring, rebounding, and three-point shooting, makes him one of the most versatile big men in the league. If he can one day solidify his case as the best shooting big man ever (39.6% career 3-PT FG), Towns could be in the Hall of Fame one day although he has a lot to prove.

Jamal Murray’s pivotal role in the Denver Nuggets’ deep playoff runs, particularly his standout performances in the playoffs, highlighted his scoring prowess and clutch abilities. Beyond his ability to light up the scoreboard, Murray’s chemistry with Nikola Jokic has become a cornerstone for the Nuggets’ offensive success. Murray averaged 26.5 PPG in the 2020 playoffs and 26.1 PPG in the 2023 playoffs so his reputation as a postseason performer could allow him to earn Hall of Fame credentials from now even if he only has a 2023 NBA title as an accolade on the resume.

Domantas Sabonis, a three-time NBA All-Star, has become the focal point for the Sacramento Kings after blossoming with the Indiana Pacers, showcasing versatility as a skilled big man and playmaker. Sabonis’ ability to contribute in scoring, rebounding, and playmaking capacities underscores his all-around impact on the court. Hopefully, Sabonis can add more accolades to his resume as the son of the great Arvydas Sabonis.

Trae Young’s electrifying style of play and two All-Star performances have made him the face of the Atlanta Hawks. Known for his exceptional passing and scoring, Young’s impact extends beyond traditional statistics, influencing the Hawks’ offensive identity. Averaging 25.7 PPG and 9.4 APG over his career, Young’s numbers could start getting him Hall of Fame consideration.

Donovan Mitchell’s scoring prowess and leadership have propelled the Utah Jazz before joining the Cleveland Cavaliers, earning him four All-Star selections. As he continues to elevate his game and strives for postseason success, Mitchell remains a key factor in the up-and-coming Cavaliers although he might be looking for a way to a big market after this season.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s emergence as a dynamic guard has been a bright spot for the Oklahoma City Thunder. His scoring, playmaking, and defensive skills make him a promising young talent with the potential to become a cornerstone for the franchise. The 2023 All-NBA First Team performer is just getting started and that could be scary for the rest of the league.

Tyrese Haliburton’s impressive 2023-24 season with the Indiana Pacers is highlighting his basketball IQ, playmaking, and shooting ability. Haliburton is averaging 24.5 PPG and 12.2 APG this season and will likely make his second All-Star selection, meaning the 23-year-old has plenty of time to build his resume.

Ja Morant’s electrifying athleticism and playmaking skills quickly made him a key player for the Memphis Grizzlies, earning him Rookie of the Year honors and eventually Most Improved Player in 2021-22. Morant’s ability to take over games with his scoring and create opportunities for his teammates underscores his impact on the court and the two-time All-Star is just getting started as he is only 24 years old.

Anthony Edwards, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2020 NBA Draft, has shown explosive scoring ability and athleticism for the Minnesota Timberwolves. Edwards’ fearless approach on the court and his ability to create highlight-reel plays make him a player to watch as he continues to develop into a superstar player on the right track toward Hall of Fame consideration.

Devin Booker’s All-Star performances and leading role for the Phoenix Suns were crucial in their journey to the NBA Finals in 2021. Even as he deals with injuries, Booker has been a top-three shooting guard in the NBA for a few seasons and needs to start accumulating accolades in order for his talents to be recognized one day.

Zion Williamson’s remarkable athleticism and scoring efficiency have made him a rising star for the New Orleans Pelicans. The key for Zion is to stay healthy because completing only 138 games in five seasons is unacceptable for the former No. 1 overall pick who had the hype behind him comparable to greats such as LeBron James.

Pascal Siakam, an NBA champion with the Toronto Raptors, has evolved into an All-Star forward known for his two-way impact. Two All-Star and two All-NBA Team selections look nice but Siakam needs more accolades to make the Hall of Fame one day because he is almost 30 years old.

De’Aaron Fox’s speed and playmaking skills have been integral for the Sacramento Kings, as he made his first All-Star appearance last year. Averaging 29.6 PPG and 6.2 APG so far this season, Fox is on a mission to prove he can compete with the NBA’s elite guards as he is only 26 years old.

Jaren Jackson Jr.’s shot-blocking and three-point shooting have made him a promising young talent for the Memphis Grizzlies. The 2023 Defensive Player of the Year is only 24 years old so he has plenty of time to become a long-term star for a team that could be rising in the Western Conference.

LaMelo Ball’s rookie season (15.7 PPG and 6.1 APG) with the Charlotte Hornets showcased his exceptional passing and overall basketball IQ, earning him Rookie of the Year honors. Since then, Ball has made an All-Star appearance in 2022 and continues to shine as a passer and highlight-reel offensive player at only 22 years old.

Bam Adebayo’s versatility as a big man and defensive prowess have played a vital role in the Miami Heat’s two runs in the NBA Finals. Adebayo’s ability to guard multiple positions, contribute offensively, and excel as a playmaker make him a unique talent in the league. Two All-Star appearances and four All-Defensive Team selections look good on the resume of the 26-year-old.

Tyrese Maxey’s promising start with the Philadelphia 76ers has highlighted his scoring ability and potential to become a key contributor. He is on track to making his first All-Star Team this season as he is currently averaging 26.4 PPG and 6.8 APG for the 76ers at only 23 years old.

Scottie Barnes, a rookie for the Toronto Raptors, has shown versatility and defensive prowess, earning early praise for his impact on both ends of the floor. Barnes already has a Rookie of the Year trophy but the 22-year-old could be looking at his first All-Star and Most Improved Player accolades this season.

Paolo Banchero, Victor Wembanyama, and Chet Holmgren are all highly touted prospects with the potential to make a significant impact in the NBA one day. Though their careers are still in the early stages, the superstar potential is there to see. Banchero already has a Rookie of the Year trophy to his name, Wembanyama might be one of the greatest bigs ever, and we have never seen a player like Holmgren before. Hopefully, all three can realize their potential because it is off the charts. 

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TAGGED:Jayson TatumKevin DurantLeBron JamesLuka DoncicStephen Curry
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ByEddie Bitar
Eddie Bitar is a senior staff writer for Fadeaway World from Denver, Colorado. Since joining the team in 2017, Eddie has applied his academic background in economics and finance to enhance his sports journalism. Graduating with a Bachelor's degree from and later a Master's degree in Finance, he integrates statistical analysis into his articles. This unique approach provides readers with a deeper understanding of basketball through the lens of financial and economic concepts. Eddie's work has not only been a staple at Fadeaway World but has also been featured in prominent publications such as Sports Illustrated. His ability to break down complex data and present it in an accessible way creates an engaging and informative way to visualize both individual and team statistics. From finding the top 3 point shooters of every NBA franchise to ranking players by cost per point, Eddie is constantly finding new angles to use historical data that other NBA analysts may be overlooking.
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