The Cavaliers host the Celtics at Rocket Arena on Sunday, March 8, at 1:00 PM ET on ABC. The Cavaliers are 39-24 and fourth in the East, while the Celtics are 42-21 and second. Home and road form are both strong here: the Cavaliers are 21-11 at home, and the Celtics are 21-11 on the road.
The Cavaliers’ last game was a 113-109 win over the Pistons, a result that pushed their home winning streak to seven. The Celtics come in after a 120-100 win over the Mavericks on Friday, the night Jayson Tatum returned and finished with 15 points, 12 rebounds, and seven assists.
The season series has gone the Celtics’ way so far. The Celtics are 2-0 against the Cavaliers, including the 117-115 win at Rocket Arena on Nov. 30 after opening with a 125-105 win in the first meeting.
For the Cavaliers, Donovan Mitchell is averaging 28.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 5.8 assists, while James Harden is at 24.3 points, 4.9 rebounds, and 8.1 assists. For the Celtics, Jaylen Brown is putting up 28.8 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 5.1 assists, and Derrick White is at 17.3 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 5.7 assists.
The hook is clear: Tatum is back, the Cavaliers have won seven straight at home, and the Celtics already own the first two games of the season series.
Injury Report
Cavaliers
Jarrett Allen: Out (right knee tendonitis)
Tyrese Proctor: Out (right quadricep strain)
Max Strus: Out (left foot surgery – Jones fracture)
Jaylon Tyson: Questionable (neck strain)
Donovan Mitchell: Probable (right groin strain)
Dean Wade: Probable (right ankle sprain)
Celtics
Nikola Vucevic: Out (right ring finger fracture)
Why The Cavaliers Have The Advantage
The Cavaliers come into this game with one of the league’s most productive offenses. They are scoring 119.1 points per game, shooting 47.6% from the field, and handing out 28.4 assists per game. That assist number ranks eighth in the league, and it points to the clearest Cavaliers edge: this team can still create quality offense without leaning on one player every trip.
There is also real volume from three. The Cavaliers are taking 40.3 threes per game, which ranks fifth, and making 14.5 a night. Against a Celtics defense that tries to stay compact and protect the paint first, the Cavaliers’ ability to keep the floor spread is one of the few clean ways to pull that defense apart.
The Cavaliers have been active enough defensively to create easier offense, too. They are averaging 9.0 steals per game and 5.2 blocks, so there is a real path to turning a few possessions into runouts instead of having to score against the Celtics’ set defense every time. That is a big part of the game script, because the Celtics are first in points allowed and first in fewest turnovers.
The home setting gives the Cavaliers a real case as well. They are 21-11 in this building and have won seven straight at home. The Celtics are strong away from home, but the Cavaliers have recently done a better job of keeping pace and pressure consistent in their own arena, especially when Harden is available to settle the offense.
Why The Celtics Have The Advantage
The Celtics’ clearest edge is still their defense. They are allowing 107.0 points per game, which ranks first in the league. That number is the backbone of the matchup because the Cavaliers score a lot, but the Celtics have been better than anyone at forcing teams to work for every clean look over four quarters.
The other obvious strength is the three-point profile. The Celtics are attempting 42.5 threes per game, which ranks first, and making 15.4, which also ranks first. Even on nights when the offense is not flowing inside, that kind of volume gives them a reliable way to create separation. The Celtics already used that formula in the two earlier wins in this series.
Ball security is another major edge. The Celtics are turning it over only 12.2 times per game, the lowest mark in the league. Against a Cavaliers team that needs transition chances and live-ball mistakes to soften the Celtics’ defense, that is one of the biggest numbers in the preview. If the Celtics get a shot up on most trips, the game becomes much harder for the Cavaliers to tilt with pressure.
The Celtics also rebound well enough to survive the current frontcourt injuries. They are at 46.4 rebounds per game and just dominated the paint against the Mavericks in Tatum’s return. With Vucevic now out, the Cavaliers should see some room inside, but the Celtics have still been the better all-around defensive team and have already shown they can win this matchup in different styles.
X-Factors
Dean Wade is averaging 5.8 points, 4.2 rebounds, and 1.6 assists. His role in this matchup is bigger than the box score. With Allen out, the Cavaliers need Wade’s size and spacing to keep the floor balanced and to avoid giving the Celtics easy help assignments. If he defends his spot, rebounds his area, and hits open threes, the Cavaliers can keep the game from becoming a pure shot-volume fight.
Craig Porter Jr. is at 4.6 points, 3.4 rebounds, and 3.3 assists. He matters here because the Cavaliers’ second unit needs a guard who can keep possessions organized when Mitchell or Harden sits. If Porter gives the Cavaliers steady bench minutes and avoids empty trips, it helps keep the game within reach when the Celtics’ depth lineups hit the floor.
Payton Pritchard is producing 16.8 points, 4.1 rebounds, and 5.3 assists. He is the cleanest Celtics x-factor because he changes the shape of the offense without needing the game built around him. If Pritchard keeps hitting pull-up threes and running the second unit with pace, the Celtics can keep scoring pressure on the floor even when Brown or Tatum rests.
Neemias Queta is averaging 10.1 points, 8.4 rebounds, and 1.5 assists. With Vucevic out, his frontcourt minutes become more important. Queta just had a big night against the Mavericks, and this game asks for the same things: finish at the rim, rebound in traffic, and make sure the Celtics do not lose the paint battle because of one injury.
Prediction
The Celtics have the better overall team case. The league’s best points-allowed number, the league’s lowest turnover rate, and the top three-point volume in the league are strong enough on their own, and the Celtics already have two wins in the season series. The Cavaliers’ offense and home form give them a real chance, but the cleaner two-way profile is still on the Celtics’ side.
Prediction: Celtics 117, Cavaliers 112
