The Celtics host the Suns at TD Garden on Monday, March 16, at 7:30 p.m. ET.
The Celtics are 44-23 and second in the East with a 22-10 home record, while the Suns are 39-28 and seventh in the West with a 17-14 road record.
The Celtics are coming off a 111-100 win over the Wizards on Saturday, as the Suns are coming off a 122-115 loss to the Raptors on Friday.
With the season series 1-0 for the Celtics after a 97-81 win in the first meeting on Feb. 24, this is a real seeding game for both sides, but it also feels like a style test between the Celtics’ structure and the Suns’ shot-making backcourt.
Jaylen Brown has been the Celtics’ top scorer at 28.2 points, 7.1 rebounds, and 5.1 assists per game, while Jayson Tatum is averaging 19.8 points, 8.5 rebounds, and 4.5 assists in 4 games this season.
For the Suns, Devin Booker is putting up 25.4 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 6.0 assists, and Jalen Green has averaged 17.4 points, 3.3 rebounds, and 2.5 assists since joining the rotation in Phoenix.
Booker and Green have given the Suns real perimeter firepower lately, but the Celtics still bring the better full-team profile into this matchup.
Injury Report
Celtics
John Tonje: Out (G League – Two-Way)
Nikola Vucevic: Out (right ring finger fracture)
Suns
Dillon Brooks: Out (left hand fracture)
Mark Williams: Out (left foot third metatarsal stress reaction)
Why The Celtics Have The Advantage
The cleanest case starts with overall efficiency. The Celtics own a 120.3 offensive rating, which ranks second in the league, a 112.7 defensive rating, and a plus-7.6 net rating, which ranks among the NBA’s best. The Suns are much closer to the middle of the pack at 115.3 offensively, 113.9 defensively, and plus-1.4 in net rating. That is the difference between a true contender profile and a good team still fighting to prove it can hold up every night.
The Celtics also have the stronger shot-profile base. They are scoring 114.2 points per game, averaging 46.4 rebounds, and making 15.4 threes per game while shooting 36.1% from deep. The Suns are also a solid three-point team at 36.3%, but the Celtics pair that spacing with a better rebounding base and cleaner possession control. In a game where both teams will try to win from the perimeter, the Celtics have more margin for error.
There is also direct matchup evidence on the Celtics’ side. In the first meeting, the Celtics beat the Suns 97-81 and dominated the glass 61-43. That matters because it was not some random hot shooting night. It was a game where the Celtics controlled the possession battle, forced the Suns into a lower-scoring half-court game, and never really let them get comfortable offensively.
Then there is the home-court and lineup context. The Celtics are 22-10 at TD Garden, and Jayson Tatum just logged a season-high 32 minutes in the win over the Wizards, which matters even if Brown remains the statistical headliner. The Celtics also got a big interior lift from Neemias Queta in that last game, so even with Nikola Vucevic out, the frontcourt does not look nearly as shaky as it did a week ago.
Why The Suns Have The Advantage
The Suns’ best path starts with backcourt shot creation. Booker is playing at an All-NBA level, and Green has been on a real heater lately. In the last two games alone, they combined for 79 points against the Pacers and 65 against the Raptors. That matters because the Celtics can take away a lot structurally, but elite guard scoring can still flatten a team-quality gap for one night.
The Suns also have a legitimate math case. The Suns are making 14.9 threes per game and shooting 36.3% from deep, which is basically right in line with the Celtics’ percentage. If Booker bends the first line and the Suns can turn the game into a drive-and-kick contest instead of a rebounding contest, they have enough shooting to keep up possession for possession.
There is also a pressure angle here. The Suns average 9.8 steals per game, giving them a real transition weapon, while the Celtics are not a high-assist machine by elite-offense standards, averaging 24.5 per game. If the Suns can get their hands active, force the Celtics into tougher self-created shots, and keep the game from becoming too organized, the matchup gets more volatile than the standings suggest.
And while the Suns lost to the Raptors last time out, they had won four straight before that and six of seven overall. The offense has looked more dangerous lately, especially when Booker and Green share the scoring load. The Celtics are still the better team, but the Suns are not walking in cold. They have enough recent offensive rhythm to make this uncomfortable if the game stays close into the fourth.
X-Factors
Sam Hauser matters because the Suns are going to load up on Brown, White, and Tatum whenever they can. Hauser is averaging 9.3 points, 3.9 rebounds, and 1.5 assists while shooting 38.8% from three. If he makes the Suns pay for collapsing into the paint or overhelping on drives, the Celtics’ offense becomes very hard to shrink.
Neemias Queta is the other Celtics swing piece because Vucevic is out, and the interior minutes matter more than usual. Queta is averaging 10.0 points, 8.4 rebounds, and 1.4 assists while shooting 63.9% from the field, and he just went for 24 points and 10 rebounds against the Wizards. If he controls the glass and finishes the easy ones, the Celtics get exactly the kind of low-maintenance frontcourt production they need in this matchup.
Royce O’Neale is a real Suns x-factor because he is the kind of connector who can swing a game without dominating the ball. He is putting up 10.0 points, 4.9 rebounds, and 2.8 assists while shooting 40.1% from three. Against a Celtics team that will rotate hard and try to force the ball out of Booker’s hands, O’Neale is the type of shooter and decision-maker who can punish the extra help.
Grayson Allen matters because the Suns need one more perimeter scorer to keep the offense from becoming too Booker-heavy. Allen comes in at 17.3 points, 3.0 rebounds, and 4.2 assists this season, and he had 15 points in the loss to the Raptors. If he gives the Suns a real third scoring lane, the Celtics have a tougher time loading up on the backcourt.
Prediction
The Suns have enough scoring to make this interesting, especially if Booker keeps cooking and Green stays hot. But the stronger read still points to the Celtics. They have the better record, better net rating, better rebounding profile, home-court advantage, and, as they showed in the first meeting, they can drag them into the kind of game they do not want. I think the Suns hang around for a while, but the Celtics’ structure should win out by the second half.
Prediction: Celtics 117, Suns 108
