Target Center gets a sneaky good one on Sunday, April 5, at 7:00 PM ET, when the Timberwolves meet the Hornets.
The Timberwolves come in at 46-31 and sixth in the West, while the Hornets are 42-36 and eighth in the East. The Timberwolves are 25-14 at home, and the Hornets are 21-17 on the road.
The Hornets are coming off a 129-108 win over the Pacers, their third straight victory and their eighth win in the last 10 games.
The Timberwolves are coming in off a 115-103 loss to the 76ers, a game that got away from them in the second half after they allowed 74 points after the break.
These teams have played once this season, and the Timberwolves took that game 122-105 on Nov. 1.
So the season series sits 1-0 for the Timberwolves, but the context is different now because the Hornets have become one of the hottest offensive teams in the league over the second half of the season.
For the Hornets, LaMelo Ball is at 19.5 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 7.1 assists, while Brandon Miller has given them 20.4 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 3.4 assists.
For the Timberwolves, Julius Randle is putting up 21.1 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 5.1 assists, and Rudy Gobert is at 11.0 points, 11.5 rebounds, and 1.7 assists while shooting 68.6% from the field.
The game gets even more interesting because Anthony Edwards is listed as questionable, which puts even more pressure on the Timberwolves’ half-court offense if he is limited or out.
Injury Report
Timberwolves
Jaden McDaniels: Out (left knee patella tendinopathy)
Anthony Edwards: Questionable (right knee patellofemoral pain syndrome)
Hornets
Tosan Evbuomwan: Out (G League – Two-Way)
PJ Hall: Out (right ankle fracture)
Liam McNeeley: Out (G League – On Assignment)
Antonio Reeves: Out (G League – Two-Way)
Tidjane Salaun: Out (G League – On Assignment)
Moussa Diabate: Probable (left ankle sprain)
Why The Timberwolves Have The Advantage
The first Timberwolves edge is still defense. They rank fifth in defensive rating at 112.9, and that gives them the cleanest single team strength in this matchup. The Hornets have a strong offense, but the Timberwolves are one of the few teams with enough size and rim protection to make that offense work deeper into the shot clock.
The Timberwolves also bring a stronger possession-control profile than people usually realize. They are 12th in rebounds at 44.6 per game, 10th in pace at 100.54, and sixth in three-point percentage at 36.9%. That matters because they do not need to win only one way. They can slow the game into a half-court grind, or they can play faster if the Hornets start turning it loose from deep.
The matchup logic on this side starts with the Hornets’ turnover issue. The Hornets score well, but they also give it away 15.4 times per game. The Timberwolves average 8.7 steals and 5.7 blocks per game, so they have the kind of defensive activity that can turn one loose pass into a four-point swing. Against a team that wants to bomb threes and play in rhythm, those disruptions matter.
There is also the home floor and the season-series angle. The Timberwolves are 25-14 at home, they already handled this matchup once, and even in Friday’s loss they still got 21 points from Julius Randle and 21 from Bones Hyland. If Edwards is available and looks closer to normal, the Timberwolves have enough two-way structure to make the Hornets prove they can score the same way against a real playoff-level defense.
Why The Hornets Have The Advantage
The Hornets have the better offensive machine right now, and it is not really a debate. They rank fourth in offensive rating at 119.5 and sixth in net rating at plus-5.2. They also take 43.0 threes per game, which is second in the league, and they hit 38.0% from deep, which is top three territory. That combination is exactly what can stress even a very good defense.
The Hornets also rebound at a high level. They pull down 46.2 boards per game, and that gives them another way to survive cold stretches. Against a Timberwolves team that is good defensively but not overwhelming on the glass, that matters. If the Hornets keep getting second chances after long jumpers, the math can tilt their way fast.
The recent form is hard to ignore too. The Hornets have won eight of their last 10, and over their last five games they have posted a 124.6 offensive rating with 117.2 points per game. That tells you this is not just one hot night against the Pacers. This offense has been humming for a while, and the spacing around Ball and Miller has become very real.
The matchup logic here is simple. The Timberwolves just allowed 115 points to the 76ers and 113 to the Pistons in back-to-back losses, and now they could be missing or limiting Anthony Edwards while also being without Jaden McDaniels. That hurts them on both ends. It cuts their perimeter defense and it raises the shot-creation burden on Randle and the secondary guards. Against a Hornets team that can space the floor with four shooters, that is dangerous.
X-Factors
Naz Reid is a real X-factor for the Timberwolves because he gives them scoring pop when the game starts to stall. He is producing 13.7 points, 6.2 rebounds, and 2.3 assists this season, and his ability to hit jumpers from the frontcourt matters against a Hornets team that wants to pack the lane and then fly out to shooters. If Reid scores efficiently off the bench, the Timberwolves can keep their offense from flattening.
Donte DiVincenzo is another important piece because the Timberwolves need his shooting and connective play, especially if Edwards is not fully right. DiVincenzo is at 12.3 points, 4.2 rebounds, and 3.9 assists while hitting 38.1% from three. If he makes the Hornets guard movement threes and keeps the ball moving from side to side, the Timberwolves can get cleaner looks than they did late against the 76ers.
Kon Knueppel is a major swing piece because he changes the geometry of the floor. He is at 18.8 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 3.4 assists while shooting 43.1% from three. In this matchup, his job is obvious. He has to punish help, keep the weak side occupied, and make the Timberwolves think twice about loading up on Ball and Miller. If he gets loose, the Hornets’ offense becomes much harder to contain.
Moussa Diabate is the other Hornets name that matters. He is not there to carry usage. He is there to rebound, run, and make the frontcourt minutes physical. Diabate just had 10 points and 12 rebounds against the Nets earlier this week, and if he gives the Hornets extra possessions and active paint defense, the whole game gets easier for their perimeter group.
Prediction
This feels like the spot where the Hornets keep rolling. The Timberwolves have the better defense, and home court matters, but the Hornets have too much offensive pressure right now. Fourth in offensive rating, second in three-point attempts, top-tier three-point accuracy, and strong rebounding is a very real formula, especially against a Timberwolves team that could be compromised on the wing and without full certainty around Anthony Edwards. I trust the Hornets’ spacing a little more than I trust the Timberwolves’ shot creation in this specific version of the matchup.
Prediction: Timberwolves 113, Hornets 117
