Sunday at Paycom Center, the Thunder get the Jazz in a game that looks one-sided on paper.
The Thunder are 61-16 and first in the West. The Jazz are 21-57 and 15th. The Thunder are 33-6 at home, and the Jazz are 8-30 on the road.
The Thunder come in off a 139-96 win over the Lakers. They have won four straight and 16 of their last 17.
The Jazz are coming off a 140-106 loss to the Rockets, and they have lost 12 of their last 13. The recent form is clear. One team is closing the season strong. The other is just trying to get through it.
The season series is also clear. The Thunder are 3-0 against the Jazz this season, and the Jazz have scored only 112.7 points per game in those matchups. This is the last meeting, and the Thunder have already shown they can control it.
For the Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is putting up 31.6 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 6.5 assists, while Jalen Williams is at 17.1 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 5.4 assists.
For the Jazz, Brice Sensabaugh has given them 14.6 points, 3.1 rebounds, and 1.8 assists, and Kyle Filipowski is at 11.3 points, 7.1 rebounds, and 2.5 assists.
Injury Report
Thunder
Thomas Sorber: Out (right ACL surgical recovery)
Jazz
Lauri Markkanen: Out (right hip impingement)
Keyonte George: Out (right hamstring strain)
Jaren Jackson Jr.: Out (left knee injury recovery)
Walker Kessler: Out (left shoulder injury recovery)
Isaiah Collier: Out (left hamstring strain)
Elijah Harkless: Out (left hamstring strain)
Blake Hinson: Out (G League – Two-Way)
Jusuf Nurkic: Out (nose injury recovery)
Why The Thunder Have The Advantage
The biggest edge is on defense. The Thunder lead the league in defensive rating at 107.3. They also lead the league in net rating at 11.4. They give up only 107.5 points per game. No team has been better at getting stops over the full season.
The gap gets even wider when you put the Jazz next to those numbers. The Jazz have a 122.4 defensive rating, and they allow a league-high 125.6 points per game. That is the worst defense in the league by the numbers. Against a Thunder team that already scores 118.9 points per game, that is a bad setup for the Jazz.
The Thunder also take care of the ball and create extra mistakes. They turn it over only 12.6 times per game. The Jazz give it away 15.5 times per game. The Thunder also average 9.7 steals and 5.5 blocks. That is a simple path to control. They force mistakes, they do not make many of their own, and they get easy points from that gap.
There is also the home and road split. The Thunder are 33-6 at home. The Jazz are 8-30 on the road. That is not a small edge. It lines up with the season records, the defense, and the health picture.
Why The Jazz Have The Advantage
The Jazz still have one path on offense. They score 117.2 points per game and hand out 29.4 assists per game. Those are solid offensive numbers, even with the record where it is. If they move the ball and hit shots early, they can keep the score respectable for a while.
The Jazz also take a fair amount of threes. They attempt 34.5 a game and hit 36.7% from deep. The Thunder are very good on defense, but the way to challenge them is to make quick decisions and force them to guard the full floor. The Jazz have enough shooting to do that if they get a hot night from the wings.
There is also some recent evidence that the Jazz can still get production from the young group. Sensabaugh scored 28 against the Nuggets, then 20 against the Rockets. Filipowski had 25 and 12 against the Nuggets. Cody Williams scored 27 with 11 rebounds against the Rockets. The issue is not finding a few scoring nights. The issue is defending well enough to turn those nights into wins.
X-Factors
Isaiah Joe is a real X-factor for the Thunder because he can break the game open fast. He is at 10.8 points, 2.6 rebounds, and 1.3 assists, and he is shooting 41.4% from three. Against a Jazz defense this weak, one hot stretch from Joe can turn a close first half into a game that is over by the third quarter.
Cason Wallace is the other Thunder name to watch. He is giving them 8.6 points, 3.1 rebounds, and 2.6 assists, and he is at 2.0 steals per game. His scoring is useful, but the bigger value is on defense. If Wallace gets into passing lanes and speeds up Jazz guards, the Thunder will get the kind of extra possessions that usually decide games like this early.
Ace Bailey is an X-factor for the Jazz because he can create his own shot. He is at 13.6 points, 4.1 rebounds, and 1.8 assists as a rookie. The Jazz need one wing who can make hard shots when the offense stalls. Bailey is the best bet for that in this matchup, finding a groove late in the season that has made him look even more dangerous.
Cody Williams also has to give the Jazz something on the wing. He is at 8.5 points, 2.9 rebounds, and 1.8 assists. He just had 27 and 11 against the Rockets, so there is at least some recent scoring form there. The Jazz do not need a perfect game from him. They do need him to finish plays and make the Thunder guard one more option.
Prediction
This is a bad matchup for the Jazz. The Thunder are first in defensive rating, first in net rating, and 33-6 at home. The Jazz have the worst defense in the league, they are 8-30 on the road, and they are missing too many rotation players. The Jazz can score enough to have a good quarter or two, but over 48 minutes the gap is too big on defense, depth, and control of the game.
Prediction: Thunder 124, Jazz 106
