This one lands at American Airlines Center on Sunday, April 5, at 7:30 PM ET, with the Mavericks trying to stop the slide and the Lakers trying to survive a brutal hit to their rotation.
The Lakers are 50-27 and third in the West. The Mavericks are 24-53 and 13th. The Mavericks are 18-20 at home, while the Lakers are 24-14 on the road.
The Lakers are coming off a 139-96 loss to the Thunder, their worst defeat in years, and the Mavericks are coming off a 138-127 loss to the Magic despite Cooper Flagg’s 51-point explosion.
The season series has belonged to the Lakers so far. They beat the Mavericks 129-119 on Nov. 28, 116-110 on Jan. 24, and 124-104 on Feb. 12, so they lead it 3-0 going into this last meeting.
For the Mavericks, Cooper Flagg is at 20.8 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 4.5 assists, while Klay Thompson has given them 11.8 points, 2.1 rebounds, and 1.4 assists.
For the Lakers, LeBron James is at 20.6 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 6.9 assists, while Deandre Ayton has put up 12.4 points and 8.2 rebounds.
The bigger issue is on the Lakers side. Luka Doncic is out with a left hamstring strain, and Austin Reaves is out with a left oblique muscle strain.
Injury Report
Mavericks
Kyrie Irving: Out (left knee surgery)
Dereck Lively II: Out (right foot surgery)
Caleb Martin: Out (right plantar fascia strain)
Moussa Cisse: Questionable (G League – Two-Way)
Marvin Bagley III: Probable (left shoulder impingement)
Lakers
Luka Doncic: Out (left hamstring strain)
Austin Reaves: Out (left oblique muscle strain)
Marcus Smart: Out (right ankle contusion)
Jarred Vanderbilt: Questionable (right calf soreness)
Why The Mavericks Have The Advantage
The first Mavericks edge is simple. They are healthier at the top of the rotation for this specific game. The season numbers still look bad, but the setup changed the moment the Lakers lost Doncic and Reaves. That strips away 57.1 points per game and a huge part of the Lakers’ on-ball creation. Against most teams, that is damaging. Against a home team that still has Flagg available, it is a real opening.
The Mavericks also play faster. They are at a 101.7 pace, while the Lakers sit at 98.5. That matters here because the Lakers are more likely to slow down without their two best perimeter creators. The Mavericks should want a loose game with more possessions, more early-clock shots, and more chances for Flagg to attack before the defense is set.
There is also a rebounding edge. The Mavericks pull down 44.7 rebounds per game, while the Lakers are at 41.0. That is not a small gap. It becomes more important with Lively still out, because this Mavericks team has had to patch the center spot all year and knows it has to win the glass by committee. If the Mavericks get extra possessions, they can offset the weaker shooting profile.
The Lakers are the better offensive team over the full season, but their defense has not been strong enough to feel safe without star shot-making. They sit at a 116.7 defensive rating. The Mavericks have been bad offensively at 110.5, but Flagg’s recent surge changes the look of the game. He just put up 51 against the Magic, and the Mavs have no reason to take the ball out of his hands right now. If he gets downhill and forces help, the Mavericks have enough secondary shooting to stay in this.
Why The Lakers Have The Advantage
Even without Doncic and Reaves, the Lakers still have the better season profile. They are eighth in offensive rating at 118.2, 10th in scoring at 116.5 points per game, and fifth in field-goal percentage at 50.0%. The Mavericks are at 110.5 in offensive rating, 113.6 points per game, and 23rd in field-goal percentage at 46.7%. Over a full game, that gap usually shows up.
The Lakers also take better care of the ball. They are at 14.4 turnovers per game, while the Mavericks are at 14.8. Neither number is elite, but the Lakers are still cleaner. In a game where they are missing so much scoring, that matters. They cannot afford empty trips. The safest path is to stay organized, get LeBron James into the middle of the floor, and make the Mavericks defend multiple actions instead of living off broken plays.
There is also the basic reality of who is still on the floor. LeBron James remains the best organizer in this matchup, and Ayton gives the Lakers a clear inside target against a Mavericks team that has struggled to protect the paint all season. Ayton is shooting 67.4% from the field, which is one of the best marks in the league. If the Lakers simplify the offense and lean on James-Ayton actions, they can get cleaner shots than the opposition.
The other reason the Lakers still have a real shot is the season series. They are 3-0 against the Mavericks, and two of those wins came by double digits. That does not guarantee anything now that Doncic is out, but it does say something about matchup comfort. The Lakers have already shown they can score on the Mavericks and control long stretches of this pairing.
X-Factors
Rui Hachimura becomes more important now. He is putting up 11.1 points and 3.2 rebounds while shooting 50.6% from the field and 43.0% from three. The Lakers need his spacing and quick scoring because they cannot replace Doncic and Reaves with one player. If Hachimura hits open threes and attacks closeouts, the Lakers’ offense can stay functional. If he is quiet, the floor gets tight fast.
Jaxson Hayes is another important Lakers piece. He is at 7.3 points and 4.1 rebounds, and his role is clear. Run hard, finish easy plays, and bring energy around the rim. The Lakers do not need post touches from him. They need activity. If Hayes gives them extra possessions and vertical spacing, that helps cover some of the missing shot creation.
P.J. Washington is a big swing player for the Mavericks. He is at 14.1 points, 7.1 rebounds, and 1.8 assists. They need his size because the Lakers will try to punish smaller lineups inside. If Washington rebounds and hits enough jumpers to keep the Lakers honest, the Mavericks can keep the game balanced around Flagg.
Daniel Gafford also has to matter. He is posting 9.6 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 1.2 blocks while shooting 65.7% from the field. Without Lively, his minutes become more important against Ayton and the Lakers’ front line. If Gafford holds up inside, the Mavericks can stay solid enough at the rim to give Flagg and Thompson a chance to win the game on the other end.
Prediction
This game changed when Doncic and Reaves went out. The Lakers are still the better team over the full season, but this is not the full-season version of the Lakers. It is a thinner version that just lost its two best perimeter scorers. The Mavericks are not good enough defensively to trust every night, but they have the healthier shot creator, the rebounding edge, and the home floor. That is enough for me here.
Prediction: Mavericks 116, Lakers 111
