TD Garden gets a real Eastern Conference test on Sunday, April 5, at 3:30 PM ET, when the Celtics face the Raptors.
The Celtics enter at 52-25 and second in the East, while the Raptors are 43-34 and sixth. The Celtics are 26-11 at home, and the Raptors are 22-17 on the road.
Both teams come in off strong wins. The Celtics just handled the Bucks 133-101, improving to 52-25 behind 26 points from Jaylen Brown and a near triple-double from Jayson Tatum.
The Raptors answered with a 128-96 win over the Grizzlies, ending a two-game skid and staying alive in the race for a top-six seed.
The season series has been one-way so far. The Celtics are 3-0 against the Raptors, with wins of 121-113, 112-96, and 125-117. The Celtics have already shown they can control the matchup with offense, with defense, and with simple execution late in games.
Jaylen Brown has given the Celtics 28.7 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 5.3 assists per game this season, while Jayson Tatumhas produced 21.4 points, 9.9 rebounds, and 5.1 assists in his 13 appearances.
For the Raptors, Brandon Ingram is putting up 21.4 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 3.6 assists while shooting 47.2% from the field, and Scottie Barnes is at 18.3 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 5.9 assists.
This is the kind of game the Raptors need if they want to move out of play-in range, but the Celtics still look like the cleaner team from top to bottom.
Injury Report
Celtics
Nikola Vucevic: Questionable (right ring finger fracture)
Raptors
Immanuel Quickley: Out (right foot plantar fasciitis)
Chucky Hepburn: Out (right knee surgery recovery)
Why The Celtics Have The Advantage
The biggest edge is the full team profile. The Celtics are second in offensive rating at 120.5, fourth in defensive rating at 112.8, and fourth in net rating at 7.6. The Raptors are 17th in offensive rating at 115.6 and sit around league average overall with a 2.5 net rating. That gap usually shows up over 48 minutes, especially against teams that do not have elite shot-making from deep.
The Celtics also have a cleaner shooting base for this matchup. They are ninth in three-point percentage at 36.5% and take 42.0 threes per game, while the Raptors are 23rd in three-point percentage at 35.0% and take only 32.5 per game. The Raptors do a lot of good offensive work with ball movement, but against the Celtics, extra passes do not mean as much if they end in average perimeter shooting. If the Celtics win the math battle from three again, the Raptors have a hard ceiling offensively.
There is also a rebounding and control piece here. The Celtics pull down 45.6 rebounds per game, and even with a slower pace at 94.72, they do a good job dictating the kind of game they want. The Raptors play faster at 98.50 and thrive when the game gets more fluid, but the Celtics are usually comfortable turning those possessions into half-court reads, extra kick-outs, and second-chance points. That is where the game can tilt.
The matchup logic is simple. The Raptors are second in assists at 29.5 per game, so they want rhythm, quick decisions, and drive-and-kick offense. But the Celtics are one of the few teams with enough size on the wing and enough structure on the back line to stay home longer and still contest. If the Celtics force the Raptors into late-clock one-on-one possessions instead of easy paint-to-perimeter chains, the game starts leaning their way fast.
Why The Raptors Have The Advantage
The Raptors’ best argument starts with how well they move the ball. They are second in assists at 29.5 per game, and that is not empty production. Barnes can initiate, Barrett can attack a closeout, and the ball usually finds the next option without the offense getting stuck. Against a Celtics team that averages only 24.6 assists per game, the Raptors can at least claim they are more likely to create easy looks through collective offense.
They also shoot 48.0% from the field, which is a strong mark for a team that is not bombing away from deep. That matters in this matchup because the Celtics will live with some mid-tier three-point shooting if they can keep the ball out of the paint. The Raptors’ path is to beat the first defender, force the Celtics into rotations, and finish efficiently inside the arc before the defense fully loads up.
There is also a pace angle that gives the Raptors a chance. They are at 98.50 possessions per game, while the Celtics are one of the slower teams in the league at 94.72. If the Raptors can push misses, play off Barnes in early offense, and avoid letting the Celtics turn every possession into a set half-court game, they can make this feel less comfortable than the earlier meetings did.
The other thing working for the Raptors is urgency. They are still fighting to avoid the play-in zone, and Friday’s blowout of the Grizzlies showed how dangerous they can look when the pressure sharpens their focus. The Celtics are the better team, but the Raptors do not need to be better for 82 games here. They need one game where the ball moves, the pace rises, and Barnes controls the tone.
X-Factors
Derrick White is a major swing piece for the Celtics because he fills the cracks in this kind of game. He has put up 17.0 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 5.5 assists this season. Against a Raptors team built on passing and secondary creation, White’s value is not just in scoring. It is in blowing up actions early, making the extra pass on the other end, and keeping the Celtics from getting too star-dependent. If White controls those small moments, the Celtics usually look a lot more stable.
Neemias Queta is the other Celtics name to watch. He has given them 10.1 points and 8.4 rebounds while shooting 64.3% from the field, and his growth has become a real part of their structure. Against a Raptors team that still wants to play through the paint even without great three-point volume, Queta’s rim presence and rebounding matter. If he wins his minutes cleanly, the Celtics gain another layer of control inside.
Jakob Poeltl is a real X-factor for the Raptors because he can punish the Celtics if they get too comfortable switching or helping late. He is at 10.8 points, 7.4 rebounds, and 2.1 assists while shooting 69.6% from the field. The Raptors do not need a huge scoring game from him. They need screens, short-roll decisions, and efficient finishing. If Poeltl keeps the Celtics honest at the rim, the whole offense opens up a little more.
RJ Barrett gives the Raptors another strong downhill scorer next to Brandon Ingram and Scottie Barnes. Barrett is at 19.2 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 3.4 assists while shooting 49.5% from the field, and his role in this matchup is pretty clear. If he can attack closeouts, get into the paint, and finish efficiently without stalling the ball movement, the Raptors’ offense becomes much harder to load up against.
Prediction
The Raptors have enough ball movement and enough urgency to make this competitive for stretches, but the Celtics still have too many edges in the places that matter most. They are second in offensive rating, fourth in defensive rating, fourth in net rating, and they have already beaten the Raptors three times this season. The Raptors can make the game faster and a little messy, but the Celtics have the better shooting profile, the better rebounding base, and the more trustworthy defense once the game settles down.
Prediction: Celtics 118, Raptors 110
