The Nuggets host the Celtics at Ball Arena on Wednesday, February 25, at 10:00 PM ET. The Nuggets are 36-22 and sitting in the top three of the West, while the Celtics are 38-19 and second in the East. The Nuggets are 15-11 at home, and the Celtics are 20-10 on the road.
The Nuggets’ last game was a 128-117 loss to the Warriors. The Celtics’ last game was a 97-81 win over the Suns. These teams have played once this season, a 114-110 Nuggets win, so the Nuggets lead the season series 1-0.
Nikola Jokic is averaging 28.8 points, 12.5 rebounds, and 10.5 assists, and Jamal Murray is at 25.5 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 7.5 assists.
Jaylen Brown is averaging 29.2 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 4.9 assists, and Derrick White is at 17.1 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 5.7 assists.
This game is about which identity survives the injury list: elite offense at home versus elite defense on the road.
Injury Report
Celtics
Jayson Tatum: Out (right Achilles repair)
Max Shulga: Out (G League – Two-Way)
Amari Williams: Out (G League – On Assignment)
Nuggets
Aaron Gordon: Out (right hamstring strain)
Peyton Watson: Out (right hamstring strain)
Tamar Bates: Out (left foot surgery)
Jalen Pickett: Out (right knee soreness)
Curtis Jones: Out (G League – Two-Way)
Jamal Murray: Probable (right hamstring tightness)
Julian Strawther: Probable (left great toe sprain)
Why The Nuggets Have The Advantage
The Nuggets’ advantage starts with the simplest thing to explain and the hardest thing to guard: they score more efficiently than anyone. They’re first in offensive rating at 120.9 and first in points per game at 120.8. Even with rotation pieces missing, that baseline usually keeps them out of long droughts.
They also protect possessions. The Nuggets are third in turnovers per game at 12.9, which matters against a defense that wins by strangling your margin. If the Nuggets keep the ball, they give themselves enough total shot attempts to let the offense carry a night that might not be pretty.
The other angle is shot profile. The Nuggets are ninth in assists per game at 28.2, which is a clean indicator of how often they’re generating set-up looks instead of emergency looks. That is the best way to attack a top defense without relying on hot shooting.
Matchup-wise, home execution is the leverage. The Nuggets are 15-11 at home, and this is the type of opponent where the value of “normal possessions” spikes. If they avoid live-ball mistakes, the Celtics don’t get the broken-floor chances that make even elite defenses feel unfair.
The risk is obvious on the other end. The Nuggets are 19th in points allowed per game at 116.3. If they don’t defend well enough to force empty trips, they can end up trading baskets with a team that’s comfortable playing a lower-possession game.
Why The Celtics Have The Advantage
The Celtics’ edge is the clearest in the league: they defend better than anyone, every night. They’re first in opponent points per game at 107.6. That creates a stable floor, especially on the road, because it travels regardless of who is available.
They also win possessions without gambling. The Celtics commit the fewest turnovers in the league at 12.1 per game, and they’re also first in turnover percentage at 10.8%. That is the cleanest counter to a high-powered home offense: fewer empty possessions, fewer runouts, fewer free points.
Shooting from deep is still a weapon even with injuries. The Celtics are second in three-point attempts per game at 42.4. That volume keeps them from needing to “lock” the paint to keep up, and it also stretches a defense that is already middle-of-the-pack by points allowed.
This matchup also rewards their control style. The Celtics can shrink the game into half-court possessions, and that is where opponent efficiency tends to drop. If they keep the Nuggets from getting early-clock rhythm and force more late-clock work, it becomes a possession-by-possession grind.
The concern is obvious, too: scoring margin for error. If the Celtics can’t generate enough offense to punish a defense ranked 19th in points allowed, the game can tilt into a “first to 110” type of night where one cold stretch decides it.
X-Factors
Christian Braun is the Nuggets’ swing wing with Aaron Gordon and Peyton Watson out. He’s at 10.2 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 3.0 assists, and the value is simple: clean finishing on cuts, spot-ups, and transition plays so the Nuggets don’t lose scoring when the rotation tightens. If Braun converts the easy ones, the Nuggets’ offense stays stable even if they’re missing pieces.
Julian Strawther matters because he’s the cleanest plug-in shooter when the Nuggets need spacing to hold up against a set defense. He’s at 7.0 points, 2.2 rebounds, and 1.1 assists, and if he hits early threes, it punishes help and keeps the floor open for the Nuggets’ main actions. If he’s limited, the Celtics can load up harder without paying as much.
Sam Hauser is a Celtics pressure point because their offense without Jayson Tatum needs low-dribble points, and that usually comes from catch-and-shoot gravity. He’s at 9.2 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 1.5 assists, and if Hauser hits early, it changes how aggressively the Nuggets can sink into the lane and tag cutters.
Payton Pritchard is the Celtics stabilizer when creation gets tight. He’s at 17.4 points, 4.2 rebounds, and 5.4 assists, and the job is keeping the offense organized and winning the non-star minutes. If Pritchard keeps turnovers down and manufactures a few efficient possessions, the Celtics can survive the stretches where the Nuggets usually separate at home.
Prediction
I’m taking the Nuggets. This feels like an injury game that turns into execution, and at home, the Nuggets’ offense has the more reliable path to points. The Celtics can absolutely win it with defense and ball security, but without their top creator, their margin gets thinner if they fall behind early.
Prediction: Nuggets 112, Celtics 108
