The Golden State Warriors host the Brooklyn Nets at Chase Center on Wednesday, March 25, at 10 p.m. ET.
The Warriors enter at 34-38, which puts them 10th in the West, while the Nets are 17-55 and 13th in the East.
The Warriors are 19-15 at home, and the Nets are 8-29 on the road. The Warriors are coming off a 137-131 overtime win over the Mavericks, and the Nets are coming off a 134-99 loss to the Trail Blazers.
The teams have met once this season, and the Warriors won 120-107, so they lead the series 1-0.
Kristaps Porzingis is averaging 16.7 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 2.7 assists, while Brandin Podziemski has posted 12.9 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 3.8 assists.
For the Nets, Nic Claxton is averaging 11.8 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 3.8 assists, while Ziaire Williams is at 10.0 points, 2.5 rebounds, and 1.0 assists.
The pressure sits on the Warriors here because this is the kind of home game they need to bank if they want to protect their play-in position.
Injury Report
Warriors
Jimmy Butler III: Out (right ACL surgery)
Seth Curry: Out (left adductor strain)
Stephen Curry: Out (right patellofemoral pain syndrome)
Al Horford: Out (right soleus strain)
Moses Moody: Out (left patellar tendon rupture)
Quinten Post: Out (right foot injury management)
Nets
Noah Clowney: Out (right wrist sprain)
Egor Demin: Out (left plantar fascia injury management)
Michael Porter Jr.: Out (left hamstring strain)
Day’Ron Sharpe: Out (left thumb surgery)
Nolan Traore: Out (rest)
Danny Wolf: Out (left ankle sprain)
Why The Warriors Have The Advantage
The cleanest edge is on the scoring side of the matchup. The Warriors are only 19th in offensive rating at 115.0, but the Nets are 30th in offensive rating at 109.2 and 30th in points per game at 106.3. This Warriors team is also 15th in defensive rating at 114.8 and 14th in opponent points per game at 114.9. Against a Nets offense that already struggles to create efficient half-court looks and is missing Michael Porter Jr., that is a major structural advantage.
The Warriors also have a passing profile that should matter against this defense. They rank fourth in assists per game at 29.1, first in assist percentage at 70.6, and fourth in assist ratio at 20.0. The Nets average 25.3 assists per game, but the real issue is on the other end, where they rank 26th in defensive rating. That combination points to the same thing: if the Warriors get into their normal split actions and second-side movement, the Nets will have trouble staying connected for a full possession.
The three-point volume is another real separator. The Warriors make 16.0 threes per game on 45.0 attempts, and they are still at 35.6% from deep even with the injuries. The Nets are 28th in three-point percentage at 34.2%, 28th in net rating at -9.7, and 30th in offensive rating, so they do not have much margin to lose the math battle. If the Warriors get a normal shooting night, the Nets will need an outlier performance just to stay in touch.
Home court and game context push it further toward the Warriors. They are 19-15 at Chase Center, the Nets are 8-29 away from home, and already handled the first meeting by 13 points. The Warriors are not dominant. Their net rating is only 18th in the league at +0.2. But the Nets dropped eight straight, sit 13th in the East, and have been one of the least efficient teams in the league all season. That is usually enough for a short-handed home favorite to control the night.
Why The Nets Have The Advantage
Their case starts with the Warriors’ injury list. The Warriors are missing Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler, Al Horford, and Moses Moody after a scary injury that ended his season. That strips away shot creation, wing defense, size, and late-game experience. Even before that, the Warriors ranked just 19th in offensive rating, 19th in scoring, and 18th in net rating. This is not a team that can casually walk onto the floor and score 125 just because the opponent is weak.
The Nets also are not as static offensively as their record suggests. They average 25.3 assists per game and rank seventh in assist percentage at 67.4. Nic Claxton adds 3.8 assists a night, which matters because they can use him as a connector when their guards get into the paint. The offense has been bad, no question, but the ball does move, and that gives the Nets at least one route to stressing a thin Warriors rotation if they can make the first pass out of pressure count.
There is also a possession-game path for the Nets. The Warriors rank 22nd in rebounds at 42.6 per game and commit 15.7 turnovers per game. The Nets are poor on the glass overall, but they still grab 10.7 offensive rebounds per game and average 7.8 steals. If they can turn this into a scrappier game with extra chances, live-ball pressure, and long rebound sequences, they can shrink the talent gap and make the Warriors play a messier style.
The other piece is that the Warriors are solid, not overwhelming, in the categories that usually produce separation. They are 15th in defensive rating, 18th in three-point percentage, and 18th in net rating. So the Nets do not need to be great everywhere. They need to defend without fouling, survive the first action, and get enough transition scoring from their young wings to keep the fourth quarter live. Against this version of the Warriors, that is at least a plausible script.
X-Factors
De’Anthony Melton is a real swing piece for the Warriors. He is averaging 13.0 points, 3.1 rebounds, and 2.4 assists, and he has started to look more comfortable again after a long recovery arc. With Curry and Butler out, the Warriors need Melton to give them direct creation, not just spot-up spacing. If he can beat the first defender and collapse the lane, the Warriors’ passing game opens up.
Gary Payton II matters because this matchup could flip into chaos. He is posting 7.0 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 1.7 assists while shooting 56.3% from the field. He is not there to run offense. He is there to wreck possessions, finish cuts, and turn loose balls into points. Against a Nets team that already coughs the ball up a lot, Payton can change the game with energy plays that do not show up in the first box-score glance.
Josh Minott is a legitimate X-factor for the Nets. He is giving them 6.8 points, 3.3 rebounds, and 1.0 assist, but his recent stretch has been much better than the season line, including a five-game run at 16.8 points. The Nets need his activity on the glass and his ability to slash behind the defense, because this offense does not have many easy points in the half-court. If Minott brings force and finishes chances, the Nets can at least keep pressure on a thin front line.
Ben Saraf is another one to watch. The rookie is averaging 6.4 points, 1.6 rebounds, and 3.1 assists, and he has shown more on-ball juice lately than the full-season line suggests. The Nets need him to organize possessions, especially when the Warriors load up on the first action and try to speed up young guards. If Saraf handles pressure and gets the ball moving to the right spots, this Nets team has a better chance to find enough functional offense to stay in range.
Prediction
The Warriors should win this. The Nets are 30th in offensive rating, 30th in scoring, and 28th in net rating, and those are brutal numbers to bring into this building when the Warriors still rank fourth in assists, first in assist percentage, and 15th in defensive rating. The Nets have a route if this becomes sloppy and low-level, but the Warriors have the better passing team, the better home environment, and the clearer formula.
Prediction: Warriors 116, Nets 103
