The Minnesota Timberwolves host the Houston Rockets at the Target Center on Wednesday, March 25, at 9:30 p.m. ET.
The Timberwolves are 44-28 and fifth in the East with a 24-13 home record, while the Rockets are 43-28 and sixth in the West with a 18-18 road record.
The Timberwolves are coming off a close 102-92 win against the Boston Celtics on Sunday, while the Rockets fell to a surprising 132-124 loss to the Chicago Bulls on Monday. This is their second encounter of the season, with the Rockets winning their last clash 110-105 on January 16, 2026. They’ll face off again in their second-last fixture of the regular season on April 10.
The Timberwolves are led by Anthony Edwards, who’s averaging 9.5 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 3.7 assists, but will be unavailable for this game against Houston due to injury. Julius Randle will hope to lead the team offensively without Edwards, averaging 21.0 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 5.1 assists over the season.
The Rockets are led by summer addition Kevin Durant, who’s averaging 25.9 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 4.4 assists this season. Durant hasn’t been as offensively impactful as many imagined, which is why co-star Alperen Sengun plays a huge role as well, averaging 20.4 points, 9.0 rebounds, and 6.2 assists this season.
The margin separating teams in the middle of the West is razor-thin. With the Denver Nuggets just half a game ahead in the No. 4 seed and the Lakers two games ahead at No. 3, every win counts. The loser of this game will have a greater hill to overcome as the battle for playoff seeds in the West keeps heating up.
Injury Report
Timberwolves
Ayo Dosunmu: Questionable (Calf)
Anthony Edwards: Out (knee)
Rockets
Steven Adams: Out (ankle)
Fred VanVleet: Out (knee)
Why The Timberwolves Have The Advantage
The Timberwolves are a team full of inconsistencies, but when they can execute perfectly, they’re a hard team to stop. They’re fourth in the NBA in blocks per game (5.7) and field-goal percentage (48.4%). Their overall efficiency on both ends of the court is also highlighted by their fifth-best three-point percentage with 37.2% on the season.
The Timberwolves have a high scoring output, ranking sixth in the NBA with 118.4 points per game. This makes them one of the best offensive units in the NBA with a 116.0 offensive rating. They aren’t slouching defensively either, with a 112.4 defensive rating for a +3.6 net rating on the season.
The Timberwolves shoot fewer threes than a team with their efficiency could, taking 37.0 shots from beyond the arc every game. However, they do generally prioritize taking high-quality shots instead of just getting them up en masse and hoping for the best outcome. If they aren’t scoring from outside, they’ll get to the free-throw line and score, with the Timberwolves taking the fifth-most free throws in the NBA per game with 25.7 FTA.
Not having Edwards will weigh on the team, especially offensively, but they have shown they have the pieces to make it work without him as well. They just beat a motivated Celtics side without Edwards by pulling off a defensive masterclass, so they could do the same against the Rockets who have been plagued with fourth-quarter offensive troubles this season.
Why The Rockets Have The Advantage
The Rockets are a team built on defensive excellence, and that’s what they’ll need to rely on to beat the Timberwolves, who are without their most potent offensive weapon. The Rockets lead the NBA in rebounds with 47.9 per game while ranking third in blocks (tied with the Wolves) with 5.7 per game.
Their high rebounding numbers mean they grab 15.0 offensive rebounds a game (most in the NBA) and generate 17.6 second-chance points per game, which would rank third in the NBA. They also rank fifth in paint points with 52.5 per game. This is a team looking to dominate the inside but might struggle in doing that with Rudy Gobert in the middle.
Thankfully, the Rockets have proven their capability in scoring from other parts of the court as well. Durant and Jabari Smith Jr. are known as mid-range specialists, which covers up their relative weakness as three-point shooters. The Rockets attempt the second-fewest three in the NBA per game (31.0) and convert them at a 36.3% clip. But they’ve shown a penchant for getting hot from outside with players like Reed Sheppard and Durant, so one of those nights could vault them well-and-clear of the Timberwolves.
Houston can rely on the core rotation they’ve had available for most of the season, so they’ll hope to break out of their recent slump and pull off a big win against their conference rivals.
X-Factors
Jaden McDaniels is one of the best defenders in the NBA and has been a crucial member of the Timberwolves for years. He’s emerged as a key two-way contributor this season, averaging 14.6 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 2.8 assists this season. This is a career-best scoring season for McDaniels, who’s proving his worth to the Timberwolves by being a two-way nightmare for opponents on a nightly basis.
Bones Hyland seemed to be on the fringes of the NBA just a few seasons ago, but quietly rebuilding his career on the Timberwolves is paying off this season. He’s averaged 8.0 points this season as a backup guard for the franchise but has shone in the last four games, averaging 20.0 points on 52.4% shooting in that span. While his production will likely disappear when Edwards returns to the lineup, Hyland is an x-factor for the Wolves before the game against the Rockets.
Amen Thompson is one of the best defenders in the NBA and has taken a measurable step on offense this season. He’s averaged 18.0 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 5.2 assists as a high-motor two-way presence for the Rockets. While his shooting still leaves much to be desired, Thompson is exceptionally efficient in all other areas of the court, making winning plays. He just scored a game-winner against the Miami Heat and can do a lot of damage against the Timberwolves.
Reed Sheppard has struggled to get consistent minutes this season, averaging 13.5 points over the season as the team’s point guard in Fred VanVleet’s absence. However, Sheppard has earned a spot with his latest performances, averaging 15.0 points and 5.5 assists over the last six games. He’s one of their only perimeter scoring options on the roster.
Prediction
Even without their best player, the Timberwolves look like they can pull this win off. They have all the pieces they need and good form on their side, but we will be picking the Rockets. Houston might be going through a rough patch, but they are deploying the best talent they can who match up really well against the Timberwolves. Unless we see an outlier scoring night from someone like Hyland or other bench players, it seems the Rockets will have enough to pull this win off.
Prediction: Timberwolves 111, Rockets 1115
