The Cavaliers host the 76ers at Rocket Arena on Monday, March 9, at 7:00 PM ET.
The Cavaliers enter at 39-25, fourth in the East, while the 76ers are 34-29, eighth in the conference. The Cavaliers are 21-12 at home, and the 76ers are 17-13 on the road.
The Cavaliers last played Sunday and lost 109-98 to the Celtics. The 76ers last played Saturday and lost 125-116 to the Hawks. This is the fourth and final meeting of the season, and the Cavaliers have won the first three matchups.
For the Cavaliers, Donovan Mitchell is averaging 28.6 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 5.8 assists, while Evan Mobley is at 17.8 points, 8.7 rebounds, and 3.7 assists.
For the 76ers, Tyrese Maxey is averaging 29.0 points, 4.1 rebounds, and 6.7 assists, and Joel Embiid is at 26.6 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 3.9 assists, although both are currently out, with Maxey sidelined for this game and the next one.
The pressure is obvious on both sides. The Cavaliers are trying to protect a top-four spot, and the 76ers are trying to stay out of the bottom half of the Play-In race with a harsh injury list.
Injury Report
Cavaliers
Jarrett Allen: Out (right knee tendonitis)
Tyrese Proctor: Out (right quadricep strain)
Olivier Sarr: Out (G League – Two-Way)
Max Strus: Out (left foot surgery – Jones fracture)
Dean Wade: Probable (right ankle sprain)
76ers
Tyrese Maxey: Out (right finger sprain)
Joel Embiid: Out (right oblique strain)
Paul George: Out (league suspension)
VJ Edgecombe: Out (lumbar contusion)
Johni Broome: Out (right knee surgery recovery)
Why The Cavaliers Have The Advantage
The Cavaliers have the stronger offensive base, and this matchup makes that edge even bigger. They are scoring 118.8 points per game, which is among the league’s better marks, and they own a 118.1 offensive rating, also in the upper tier. Against a 76ers team missing Maxey and Embiid, that baseline matters before the game even starts.
The three-point volume is the cleanest separator. The Cavaliers are making 14.5 threes per game on 40.3 attempts while shooting 35.8% from deep. That gives them a real shot-volume advantage against a 76ers defense with a 115.6 defensive rating and 116.1 opponent points allowed per game. If the Cavaliers get to their normal diet of drive-and-kick possessions, the math should tilt their way.
Ball movement is another reason to like this spot for the Cavaliers. They average 28.3 assists per game, and that matters here because the 76ers are likely to shrink the floor with so many scorers out. The Cavaliers do not need to win through a James Harden isolation every trip. They can move the defense, create second-side threes, and force weak-side rotations over and over.
Mobley’s presence also matters more in this specific matchup. The Cavaliers average 5.2 blocks per game, and without Embiid on the floor, the 76ers lose their most reliable interior scoring anchor. That puts more pressure on secondary creators and rim runners to finish over length, which is a harder ask against Mobley’s help defense and Cleveland’s size.
There is also the larger context. The Cavaliers are 21-12 at home, they already lead the season series 3-0, and the 76ers are coming in undermanned. That does not guarantee anything, but it does point to a game script where the Cavaliers can control tempo early and force the 76ers to play from behind with a shortened offense.
Why The 76ers Have The Advantage
The 76ers still have a few ways to keep this game tight, and the first is ball security. They average 13.8 turnovers per game, which is a solid number, while the Cavaliers commit 14.3 per game themselves. If the 76ers avoid live-ball mistakes and make the Cavaliers operate in the half-court, they can cut down the easiest offense on the schedule.
They also do real work at the foul line. The 76ers make 20.5 free throws per game, fourth in the league, and shoot 81.3% there. If this becomes a whistle-heavy game instead of a clean-flowing one, that helps the 76ers because free throws can keep them afloat even when the half-court offense is missing star creation.
There is enough season-long offensive competence here to stay competitive for stretches. The 76ers are scoring 115.8 points per game and own a 115.3 offensive rating, seventh in the league. Even with the injury absences, they are not a team that has to grind out every basket by accident. They can still generate enough decent possessions to hang around if the shot quality holds.
The problem is that the Embiid split is real. With Embiid off the floor this season, the 76ers drop to a 112.2 offensive rating, while boasting a 118.5 rating with him. That is where role players and secondary handlers become so important in this matchup. If the 76ers are going to steal this one, they have to outperform that short-handed baseline.
Their defensive activity gives them one more path. The 76ers average 9.2 steals per game, and if they can turn the Cavaliers’ passing style into a few runouts, the margin changes quickly. That is especially important against a team that wants to win with spacing and shot volume. A few extra possessions are the easiest way for the 76ers to upset that rhythm.
X-Factors
Sam Merrill could swing the floor-spacing battle for the Cavaliers. He is averaging 13.6 points, 2.3 rebounds, and 2.4 assists this season, and his job in this matchup is simple: punish help. If the 76ers send extra bodies at Harden and Mitchell, Merrill is the kind of movement shooter who can turn those rotations into three quick threes and change the game’s shape. If he is quiet, the floor gets smaller for the Cavaliers.
Jaylon Tyson has become an important connector in the Cavaliers’ rotation. He is averaging 13.5 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 2.2 assists while shooting 50.1% from the field and 45.6% from three. In a game where the 76ers may overplay Mitchell, Tyson’s value is in finishing the next action. If he converts those open side attacks and spot-up chances, the Cavaliers can keep the offense wide open all night.
Quentin Grimes is the pressure point for the 76ers. He is averaging 12.7 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 3.4 assists, and this matchup asks him to do more than his normal scoring load. He has to handle the ball, make quick reads, and hit enough jumpers to keep the defense honest. If Grimes plays efficiently, the 76ers can keep the offense functional. If not, too many possessions will die early.
Kelly Oubre Jr. is the 76ers wing most likely to create offense out of chaos. He is averaging 14.5 points, 4.7 rebounds, and 1.8 assists, and his role here is to attack openings before the Cavaliers can set their size behind the play. If Oubre scores in transition and on straight-line drives, the 76ers can stay connected. If he settles, their offense gets even thinner.
Prediction
The Cavaliers are the better pick because the matchup leans directly into their strengths. They have the stronger offense, they move the ball better, and they have the three-point volume to separate against a 76ers group that is missing too much creation. The 76ers can stay alive at the line and by protecting the ball, but over 48 minutes, this looks like a game the Cavaliers should control, especially at home and with a 3-0 edge already in the season series.
Prediction: Cavaliers 117, 76ers 106
