The Cavaliers host the Mavericks at Rocket Arena on Sunday, March 15 at 3:30 p.m. ET.
The Cavs enter at 41-26, fourth in the East, and 22-12 at home. The Mavericks are 22-45, 12th in the West, and 8-24 on the road.
This is the second game of a home-and-home schedule after the Cavaliers rolled to a 138-105 win on Friday, so the season series is 1-0 for the Cavs.
Donovan Mitchell is still the headline scorer here, averaging 28.2 points, 4.5 rebounds and 5.8 assists while shooting 48.3% from the field and 36.5% from three. James Harden has given the Cavs another real creator since the trade, and he is averaging 19.9 points, 5.2 rebounds and 7.8 assists in 13 games with the Cavs while shooting 49.1% from the field and 44.9% from three.
That backcourt pressure showed up again Friday, when Mitchell had 24 points and eight assists and Harden added 17 points, seven rebounds and seven assists.
For the Mavericks, Cooper Flagg remains the main offensive engine, averaging 20.0 points, 6.6 rebounds and 4.3 assists in his rookie season. Khris Middleton has only played 14 games for the Mavericks, but he is averaging 13.8 points, 3.7 rebounds and 2.9 assists while shooting 45.1% from the field and 41.3% from three, and he is coming off that season-best 35-point game against the Grizzlies when he buried 8 of 10 from deep.
That is the hook here: the Cavs looked bigger, sharper and more connected on Friday, but the Mavericks still have enough wing shot creation to make this rematch more competitive if Middleton stays hot and Flagg gets downhill earlier.
Injury Report
Cavaliers
Jarrett Allen: Out (right knee tendinitis)
Sam Merrill: Out (left hamstring tightness)
Craig Porter Jr.: Out (left groin strain)
Tyrese Proctor: Out (right quadricep strain)
Max Strus: Probable (left foot surgery – Jones fracture)
Jaylon Tyson: Questionable (left ankle soreness)
Mavericks
Kyrie Irving: Out (left knee surgery)
Dereck Lively II: Out (right foot surgery)
Klay Thompson: Doubtful (rest)
Daniel Gafford: Doubtful (illness)
P.J. Washington: Questionable (left ankle soreness)
John Poulakidas: Questionable (G League – Two-Way)
Tyler Smith: Questionable (G League – Two-Way)
Caleb Martin: Probable (left finger sprain)
Why The Cavaliers Have The Advantage
The clearest edge is offensive quality. The Cavaliers are averaging 119.1 points per game, which ranks third in the league, and they own a 118.5 offensive rating, which ranks fourth. They also average 28.3 assists per game, good for eighth, so this is not just a team leaning on one or two tough shot-makers. They create efficient offense with pace, ball movement and multiple initiators. Against a Mavericks team sitting at a 110.4 offensive rating, 28th in the league, the overall team ceiling is simply much higher on the Cavs side.
The second edge is shot efficiency. The Cavaliers are shooting 47.7% from the field and 36.1% from three as a team, while the Mavericks are at 46.8% from the field and 33.9% from three. That gap matters in a matchup where the Mavericks already struggle to keep up in clean half-court possessions. The Cavs do not need to win with chaos. They can run Mitchell-Harden actions, flow into Mobley as a short-roll playmaker, and get good shots without forcing the issue.
Friday’s game also showed the exact matchup problem the Mavericks still have to solve. The Cavs won 138-105, shot 60.9% from the field, and hammered the Mavericks for 72 points in the paint. That was not some random heater. It was a size and structure issue. With Jarrett Allen out, the Cavs still controlled the interior because Mobley ran the floor, Harden manipulated the second line, and the Mavericks could not protect the rim or clean up enough possessions.
Then there is the broader form picture. The Cavaliers are 24-10 since December 29 and have already beaten the Mavericks seven straight times overall. At Rocket Arena, they are 22-12, and the Mavericks arrive with a 22-45 record and one of the weakest statistical profiles among non-bottom-three teams, including a -5.0 net rating that ranks 24th. This is the kind of spot where the better team has already shown the formula and now gets the rematch on its own floor.
Why The Mavericks Have The Advantage
The Mavericks’ best argument starts with pace. They play faster than the Cavs, posting a 101.47 pace that ranks fourth in the league, while the Cavaliers sit at 99.98. If this becomes a cleaner, slower half-court game, the Cavs should control it again. The Mavericks need the opposite. They need more possessions, more broken-floor chances, and more chances for Flagg or Marshall to attack a defense before it is fully set.
There is also at least some chance for the Mavericks to make this a more physical rebounding game. They average 44.9 rebounds per game, slightly above the Cavs’ 44.3, and the blueprint from the Grizzlies win was obvious: they won the glass 60-38 and grabbed 21 offensive rebounds. That does not mean they will repeat it here, but it is the one team-level path that makes sense. If P.J. Washington plays and Daniel Gafford gives them anything, the Mavericks can at least try to make the possession battle less clean than it was Friday.
The Mavericks also have enough individual creation to outperform their team numbers for one night. Flagg has already proven he can carry real usage as a rookie, and Middleton’s 35-point game against the Grizzlies showed there is still a veteran shot-maker there if he finds rhythm. Naji Marshall has quietly given them 14.9 points, 4.8 rebounds and 3.1 assists on 52.4% shooting, so there is secondary playmaking and downhill pressure beyond the two headline names. If those wings stack paint touches and free throws early, the game can stay tighter.
The last point is simple: the Cavs are good defensively, but not untouchable. Their defensive rating is 114.1, which ranks 12th, not top five, and they allow 114.6 points per game. So there is room for a hot opponent to score, especially one that can play four creators on the perimeter when healthy enough. The Mavericks are not the better team, but their counter is clear. Push pace, crash the glass, get Flagg into space, and hope Middleton gives them another high-end scoring night.
X-Factors
Evan Mobley is a star, not a typical role-player X-factor, but in this matchup he belongs here because Jarrett Allen is out and the frontcourt burden gets much heavier. Mobley is averaging 17.9 points, 8.7 rebounds, 3.6 assists and 1.8 blocks, and he just put 29 on the Mavericks in the first meeting. If he controls the paint again, the Mavericks have the same problem all over again. If they can at least keep him off deep catches and limit his rim pressure, they give themselves a shot to make this more normal.
Keon Ellis matters because he changes the feel of the Cavs’ perimeter defense. In 15 games with the Cavs, he is averaging 8.1 points, 2.9 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1.5 steals and 1.3 blocks while shooting 51.8% from the field and 40.4% from three. That is real two-way value. If Ellis can pressure the ball, jump passing lanes and still knock down spot-up threes, the Cavs get another player who can tilt possessions without needing plays called for him.
P.J. Washington is the Mavericks swing forward here if that ankle lets him go. He is averaging 13.8 points, 6.9 rebounds and 1.9 assists this season, and the Mavericks badly need his size and activity against Mobley and the Cavs’ bigger lineups. Without him, the matchup looks too light physically. With him, the Mavericks at least have another body who can rebound, switch some actions and make the Cavs guard one more frontcourt scorer.
Naji Marshall has become one of the Mavericks’ most important connective pieces. He is averaging 14.9 points, 4.8 rebounds and 3.1 assists on 52.4% shooting, and he just scored 17 points with seven rebounds in Friday’s loss. He matters because he can attack closeouts, keep the ball moving and give the Mavericks some stability when Flagg sits or when Middleton is on a heat-check run. If Marshall is efficient, the Mavericks can stay organized. If he is quiet, the offense gets very thin very fast.
Prediction
The Mavericks have a better chance than they showed Friday because Middleton can swing quarters and Flagg is too good to stay quiet in two straight games against the same opponent. But the bigger read still favors the Cavaliers. They have the fourth-best offense in the league, they score 119.1 points per game, and they just exposed the Mavericks’ interior issues for 72 paint points in the first meeting. Unless the Mavericks flip the possession battle and get a real frontcourt boost from Washington or Gafford, this still looks like a Cavs game by the middle of the second half.
Prediction: Cavs 122, Mavericks 111
