The Eastern Conference Finals begin at Madison Square Garden on Tuesday, May 19, at 8:00 p.m. ET. The Knicks arrive with eight days of rest after sweeping the 76ers. The Cavaliers arrive with only one day off after beating the Pistons in Game 7, 125-94. That is the first Game 1 difference. One team is rested. The other just survived two straight seven-game series.
The Knicks have been the best team in the East playoffs so far. They are 8-2, and seven of their eight wins have come by double figures. They have outscored opponents by 19.4 points per game through two rounds, the best mark for any team through two rounds in the 16-team playoff era. Jalen Brunson averaged 29.0 points and 6.0 assists against the 76ers, while Karl-Anthony Towns averaged 15.5 points, 8.0 rebounds, and 7.5 assists on 61.8% shooting.
The Cavaliers are not coming in soft, though. Donovan Mitchell averaged 28.5 points against the Pistons, James Hardenadded 21.3 points and 6.3 assists, and Evan Mobley averaged 15.0 points, 6.7 rebounds, 4.7 assists, and 2.8 blocks. Game 7 was their best game of the playoffs: Mitchell scored 26 points, Jarrett Allen and Sam Merrill had 23 each, and Mobley added 21 points and 12 rebounds.
Injury Report
Knicks
OG Anunoby: Probable (right hamstring strain)
Cavaliers
Larry Nance Jr.: Questionable (illness)
Why The Knicks Have The Advantage
The Knicks have the rest advantage, and it matters. They last played on May 10. The Cavaliers played Game 7 on May 17. That gives the Knicks more time to prepare coverages for Mitchell and Harden, and more time for Anunoby’s hamstring to recover. Game 1 should show that early, especially in defensive activity.
The main Knicks advantage is offensive form. In Game 4 against the 76ers, they won 144-114 and hit 25 threes, tying the NBA playoff record for most made threes in a game. That was not only one hot night. In the second round, Brunson shot 51.3% from the field and 44.8% from three, Bridges shot 63.8% from the field, and Towns shot 61.8% from the field and 54.5% from three. That is elite efficiency from three primary starters.
The Cavaliers have to test Brunson and Towns defensively. That is obvious. Both have already been targeted in ball-screen actions, with Brunson or Towns defending the screener on 176 and 118 ball screens. But the Knicks allowed only 0.85 points per chance on those plays when they led directly to a shot, turnover, or foul. That is a strong number.
The Knicks also have a strong rebounding edge. Mitchell Robinson ranks first among playoff rotation players in offensive rebounding percentage at 16.8%. Jordan Clarkson is eighth at 11.1%, and Towns is 11th at 10.6%. That is a problem for the Cavaliers because they rank only 14th in defensive rebounding percentage in the playoffs at 65.2%. If the Knicks create second chances, the Cavaliers will have to defend long possessions against Brunson late in the clock.
Why The Cavaliers Have The Advantage
The Cavaliers have the best guard scoring pair the Knicks have seen in these playoffs. Mitchell is a harder individual matchup than anyone from the Hawks or 76ers. Harden gives the Cavaliers another pick-and-roll creator, another passer, and another late-clock option. That makes this different from the first two rounds.
The Cavaliers also enter Game 1 with proof they can solve pressure. They were down in the Pistons series, then won Games 5 and 7 on the road. Their Game 7 offense was excellent. They scored 125 points, had five players in double figures, and got 23 points from Merrill off the bench. That shooting changes the floor around Mitchell and Harden.
The first Game 1 adjustment is simple. Attack Towns in space. Mobley and Allen can screen for Mitchell and Harden, then force Towns into drop, switch, or late help. If Towns is too high, Allen can roll. If he stays low, Mitchell can get to pull-ups. If the Knicks switch, Harden can isolate and force help.
The Cavaliers also need to use their size. Allen had 23 points in Game 7, and Mobley had 21 points and 12 rebounds. The Knicks have enough size with Towns and Robinson, but the Cavaliers should test foul pressure early. If Robinson gets in foul trouble, the Knicks lose their best offensive rebounder. If Towns gets in foul trouble, the Knicks lose a key shooting big.
The concern is fatigue. Two straight seven-game series is heavy. The Knicks had eight days to rest. The Cavaliers had one. If Game 1 becomes a transition and offensive rebounding game, the Cavaliers may not have the legs to survive the fourth quarter.
X-Factors
Mikal Bridges is the Knicks’ first X-factor. He averaged 17.5 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 3.5 assists against the 76ers while shooting 63.8% from the field and 38.5% from three. He averaged 18.8 points on 75.7% true shooting over the Knicks’ last five playoff games. He likely gets many Mitchell possessions. If Bridges scores efficiently and defends Mitchell without fouling, the Knicks have a major edge.
Mitchell Robinson is another major Knicks X-factor. His offensive rebounding can break the Cavaliers’ defense after good initial stops. The Cavaliers can defend for 20 seconds and still lose the possession if Robinson gets inside position. His free throws are a possible weakness, but his glass work is too important to remove unless the Cavaliers force it.
Sam Merrill is a big Cavaliers X-factor after Game 7. He scored 23 points against the Pistons and gave the Cavaliers the spacing they needed. The Knicks will load up on Mitchell and Harden. Merrill has to make them pay. If he hits three or four threes, the Cavaliers can survive stretches when the stars rest.
Evan Mobley is the other key. His second-round line was 15.0 points, 6.7 rebounds, 4.7 assists, and 2.8 blocks. The scoring is not the full value. The Cavaliers need his rim protection against Brunson drives and his passing in the middle when the Knicks pressure Harden. If Mobley is active, the Cavaliers can play through more than guard isolation.
Prediction
The Cavaliers are talented enough to win Game 1. Mitchell, Harden, Mobley, and Allen give them real shot creation and size. But the timing favors the Knicks. They are rested, healthier, and playing with better rhythm. Their offense has been smoother, their rebounding has been stronger, and Brunson is in full playoff control.
The Cavaliers make it competitive because Mitchell and Harden can score against any coverage. Still, the Knicks should have more energy late. The rest gap and the offensive rebounding decide Game 1.
Prediction: Knicks 112, Cavaliers 105
