Game 4 is Sunday at 1:00 PM ET at Scotiabank Arena. The Cavaliers lead the series 2-1, but the Raptors changed the tone with a 126-104 win in Game 3. The first two games were 126-113 and 115-105 Cavaliers wins. Game 3 was different: the Raptors scored on 19 straight possessions across the third and fourth quarters and closed with a 47-23 run.
The Game 3 box score was clear. Scottie Barnes had 33 points, 11 assists, and 5 rebounds. RJ Barrett also scored 33. Collin Murray-Boyles added 22 points and 8 rebounds off the bench. Jamison Battle scored all 14 of his points in the fourth quarter. The Cavaliers got a rough night from their main guards, with Donovan Mitchell and James Harden both held under 20 points.
Injury Report
Raptors
A.J. Lawson: Questionable (back spasms)
Immanuel Quickley: Out (right hamstring strain)
Cavaliers
No players listed.
Why The Raptors Have The Advantage
The Raptors’ first edge is the Game 3 shot profile. They scored 126 points, hit 14-of-23 from three, and turned the Cavaliers’ turnovers into easy offense. The Cavaliers committed 22 turnovers, and the Raptors used those mistakes to push pace and avoid playing every possession against a set defense. That is the formula again in Game 4.
The second edge is the Barnes-Barrett production. Through three games, Barnes is scoring 26.7 points per game: 21 in Game 1, 26 in Game 2, and 33 in Game 3. Barrett is at 26.3 points per game: 24 in Game 1, 22 in Game 2, and 33 in Game 3. That is enough top-end wing scoring to make this series a chLlenge, even without Immanuel Quickley.
The Raptors also found a bench card in Game 3. Murray-Boyles had 22 and 8, and Battle scored 14 in the fourth. That changes the math. In the first two games, the Cavaliers had the cleaner scoring depth. In Game 3, the Raptors got 36 bench points from just two guys. If that support shows up again, the Cavaliers cannot just load up on Barnes and Barrett.
The main adjustment is simple: keep the floor fast. The Raptors should not let the game become Harden-Mitchell pick-and-roll control for 48 minutes. Barnes has to grab and go. Barrett has to attack early. Jamal Shead has to pressure the ball. The Raptors are not better in a slow game. They are better when the Cavaliers are turning it over, cross-matching, and reacting.
Why The Cavaliers Have The Advantage
The Cavaliers still have the series lead because Games 1 and 2 were not close late. Mitchell had 32 in Game 1 and 30 in Game 2. Harden had 22 points and 10 assists in Game 1, then 28 points, 4 assists, and 5 steals in Game 2. Before Game 3, the Cavaliers’ guard play controlled the series.
The second edge is Mobley. Evan Mobley had 17 points and 7 rebounds in Game 1, then 25 points on 11-of-13 shooting with 8 rebounds in Game 2. The Raptors have done better when they speed the game up and make the Cavaliers smaller, but Mobley is still the cleanest interior advantage in the series. If he gets touches near the rim and short-roll catches, the Cavaliers can settle the offense quickly.
The Game 3 problem was not just missing shots. It was ball security. The Cavaliers committed 22 turnovers, and Harden had 8 by himself. That cannot happen again. If they cut that number down near 12 or 13, the Raptors lose a major part of their offense.
The Cavaliers should also attack Battle and smaller Raptors lineups more directly. Game 3 got away when the Raptors’ spacing pulled the Cavaliers into rotations, but there is a defensive cost to those lineups. The Cavaliers need Harden and Mitchell hunting switches, Mobley flashing into space, and Allen forcing the Raptors to rebound through size.
X-Factors
Jamal Shead is the first Raptors X-factor. With Quickley out for the series, Shead’s minutes matter more. He is averaging 7.3 points and 2.3 steals in the series, and he scored 17 points with five threes in Game 1. His job is not to be Quickley. It is to pressure the ball, keep the offense moving, and make Harden work on both ends.
Collin Murray-Boyles is another major Raptors piece after Game 3. He had 22 points and 8 rebounds in the win, giving the Raptors real bench size and scoring. The Cavaliers will test whether that was a one-game spike. If Murray-Boyles gives the Raptors even 12 to 15 points with strong rebounding, the bench matchup becomes much closer.
James Harden is the key Cavaliers X-factor because his series has swung hard. He is at 22.7 points and 6.0 assists per game through three games: 22 and 10 in Game 1, 28 and 4 in Game 2, then 18 and 4 with 8 turnovers in Game 3. The Cavaliers need the first two versions. If Harden controls pace and limits turnovers, the Cavaliers are much harder to speed up.
Evan Mobley is the other one. He is averaging 21.0 points over the first two Cavaliers wins, with 17 in Game 1 and 25 in Game 2. His Game 2 efficiency, 11-for-13 from the field, showed how much pressure he can put on the Raptors inside. If Mobley is getting clean catches, the Raptors cannot stay small without paying for it.
Prediction
The Raptors should make this close. Barnes and Barrett are scoring enough, the bench just gave them a major lift, and Quickley’s absence did not stop them in Game 3. But the Cavaliers are still ahead in the series because their guards controlled the first two games, and Game 3 had too many turnover issues to project as the normal version.
If the Cavaliers clean up the ball and get Mobley back into the middle of the offense, they should have enough late scoring. The Raptors keep it tight, but the Cavaliers respond.
Prediction: Raptors 111, Cavaliers 115
