The Mavericks host the Lakers at American Airlines Center on Saturday, January 24, with tip-off at 5:30 PM PT.
The Mavericks enter at 19-26, 11th in the West, while the Lakers are 26-17, 5th.
Last time out, the Mavericks beat the Warriors 123-115 on Thursday, and the Lakers fell to the Clippers 112-104.
This is the second meeting of the season. The Lakers took the first one 129-119 back on November 28, so the Mavericks are looking for the split at home.
For the Mavericks, Cooper Flagg has been the nightly engine at 18.8 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 4.1 assists, and Naji Marshall adds 14.5 points with 4.7 rebounds and 3.0 assists while shooting efficiently.
For the Lakers, Luka Doncic is putting up a ridiculous 33.4 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 8.7 assists, with LeBron James still cruising at 22.5 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 6.9 assists.
The hook is simple: the Mavericks are riding momentum, but the Lakers have the best “one guy can end your night” shot-creation profile in the league right now, and this matchup is going to expose which supporting cast can actually hold up.
Injury Report
Mavericks
Anthony Davis: Out (left finger sprain)
Dante Exum: Out (right knee surgery)
Dereck Lively II: Out (right foot surgery)
Kyrie Irving: Out (left knee surgery)
Moussa Cisse: Questionable (illness)
Miles Kelly: Questionable (G League – Two-Way)
Daniel Gafford: Probable (right ankle sprain)
Ryan Nembhard: Probable (G League – Two-Way)
Lakers
Austin Reaves: Out (left calf strain)
Adou Thiero: Out (right MCL sprain)
Why The Mavericks Have The Advantage
This is the spot where the Mavericks can win the possession game and keep the Lakers from turning it into a track meet. They’re grabbing 44.9 rebounds per game versus 41.2 for the Lakers, and that matters because the Lakers’ whole thing is early offense off makes and misses, with Doncic deciding the game before your defense is even set.
The second edge is home rhythm plus confidence. They’re coming in off a fourth straight win, and that last one wasn’t a fluke either, they closed like a serious team in the fourth quarter. If the Mavericks can keep the tempo under control, they can force more half-court possessions where Flagg’s passing and Marshall’s downhill drives actually get to breathe.
Also, the Lakers’ defensive profile is not some lockdown wall. They’re allowing 116.37 points per game, basically the same neighborhood as the Mavericks, so this is not a matchup where the Lakers can just “defend their way out” if the shot-making swings.
Why The Lakers Have The Advantage
Because the Lakers have the best offensive cheat code on the floor, and it’s not close. Doncic’s 33.4 points and 8.7 assists isn’t just volume, it’s game control. If the Mavericks show two to the ball, he’s going to carve it up. If they stay home, he’s going to hunt the matchup he wants until the defense breaks.
Team-wide, the Lakers are simply more efficient. They’re scoring 116.0 points per game on 49.5% from the field, and that FG% number is a big deal because it signals they’re not living and dying on pure three-point variance. Even if the threes don’t rain, they still get clean paint looks off Doncic manipulation and LeBron downhill bursts.
And even with the Mavericks on a heater, their overall profile is shakier. They’re at 114.4 points per game while allowing 116.56, which is the kind of math that usually gets punished by elite shot-creators.
X-Factors
For the Mavericks, it starts with Cooper Flagg’s decision-making as much as his scoring. He’s averaging 18.8 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 4.1 assists as a rookie, and when he’s consistently making the second pass, the whole offense stops feeling like “one action, one shot” and turns into a chain reaction that produces clean looks.
Max Christie is the other big lever because he’s been giving the Mavericks real punch on the wing, especially as a spacer who can punish any late help. He’s at 13.0 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 2.2 assists per game while shooting 48.5% from the field and 45.7% from three, so if the Lakers load up on Flagg’s drives and make the “role guys beat us” bet, Christie is exactly the guy who can cash it out with quick-trigger threes and straight-line drives off closeouts.
If Daniel Gafford is available, his vertical spacing changes the geometry. He’s at 7.8 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 1.3 blocks while shooting 62.9% from the field, and that’s basically automatic offense when the Lakers overhelp or switch lazy.
For the Lakers, the X-factor is Deandre Ayton’s interior impact. He’s at 13.9 points and 8.8 rebounds per game while shooting 68.5% from the field, and his value here is that he can punish small lineups, create second-chance points, and force the Mavericks to stay honest with help at the rim. If Ayton is finishing everything and controlling the glass, the Lakers can survive cold shooting stretches.
Rui Hachimura is the other swing piece. He’s at 13.2 points and 4.9 rebounds per game, and the Lakers need him to be the guy who cashes out when the defense loads up on Luka and LeBron. If Rui hits the open threes and attacks closeouts instead of just floating, the Mavericks can’t overload the stars as aggressively, and the Lakers’ offense becomes a lot harder to contain.
Prediction
The Mavericks’ best case is making this gritty, keeping it close, and trying to win the possession battle with rebounds and pace control. I just don’t love their injury situation against a Lakers team that can generate elite looks every trip through Doncic.
Prediction: Lakers 120, Mavericks 112
