The Timberwolves host the Warriors at Target Center on Saturday, January 24, with tipoff set for 5:30 PM ET.
The Timberwolves come in at 27-18, sitting 7th in the West, while the Warriors are 25-21 and 8th.
Last time out, the Timberwolves dropped a 120-115 game against the Bulls, and the Warriors fell 123-115 against the Mavericks.
This is the second meeting of the season. The Timberwolves already took the first one 127-120 back in December.
For the Timberwolves, Anthony Edwards is putting up 29.6 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 3.7 assists, while Julius Randle is at 22.6 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 5.4 assists.
For the Warriors, Stephen Curry is rolling with 27.4 points and 4.9 assists, and Jimmy Butler has been at 20.0 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 4.9 assists, but his absence changes everything.
This game matters because it’s a straight-up West pecking-order fight, and it’s also a stress test for how real the Warriors look without their second star.
Injury Report
Timberwolves
Enrique Freeman: Out (G League – Two-Way)
Terrence Shannon Jr.: Out (left foot, abductor hallucis strain)
Rocco Zikarsky: Out (G League – Two-Way)
Warriors
Jimmy Butler III: Out (right knee, ACL tear)
LJ Cryer: Out (G League – Two-Way)
Seth Curry: Out (left sciatic nerve irritation)
Jonathan Kuminga: Out (left knee soreness)
Malevy Leons: Out (G League – Two-Way)
Why The Timberwolves Have The Advantage
The Timberwolves’ baseline is just cleaner. They’re scoring 120.0 points per game on 48.4% from the field and 37.2% from three, and that efficiency travels because it’s not fluky, it’s built around a real shot diet plus downhill pressure from Edwards.
On the advanced side, they’ve been one of the best two-way teams in the league. They sit at a 117.3 offensive rating and a 4.4 net rating, plus they’re top-tier in effective field goal percentage at 56.3%. That’s the profile of a team that can win even when the game gets ugly for a stretch.
Defensively, the Timberwolves are living in the top bracket with a 112.9 defensive rating. Against this specific opponent, that matters because the Warriors want to turn every possession into a read-and-react, relocation, split-cut math problem.
The Timberwolves are one of the few teams that can switch, recover, and still protect the rim enough to make those reads feel tight. If they keep the Warriors out of transition threes and force half-court possessions, they’re in control.
Why The Warriors Have The Advantage
The Warriors can still bend a defense in ways most teams can’t, even short-handed. They’re scoring 116.8 per game and handing out 28.8 assists, and their assist rate is elite, which is basically the engine of their whole identity. If the ball starts popping, the Timberwolves’ defense has to guard the entire floor, not just Edwards at the other end.
Curry is the great equalizer. When he’s on, your scheme becomes a suggestion. The Timberwolves can play physical at the point of attack, but the Warriors’ counter is movement, early offense, and forcing bigs to make decisions at full sprint. If the Warriors can drag Rudy Gobert away from the paint consistently, the driving lanes open up for everyone else.
The other angle is math. The Warriors are taking a ton of threes, and when they’re hitting, it flips any matchup. Their shot profile is designed to erase deficits fast, which is exactly what you want on the road.
But the real “advantage” case is simple: if this turns into a clutch game, I trust Curry’s decision-making more than almost anyone alive.
X-Factors
Donte DiVincenzo is the Timberwolves’ swing piece in this matchup because he’s exactly the kind of connector who punishes over-help. He’s at 13.2 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 4.2 assists, and if the Warriors trap or over-rotate to Edwards, DiVincenzo can turn those catches into quick threes or extra passes that collapse the shell.
Naz Reid is another problem. He’s putting up 14.6 points and 6.2 rebounds, and his ability to space or attack a closeout matters because the Warriors are going to be mixing coverages and trying to keep a rim body behind the play.
Jaden McDaniels is the quiet one who can blow up the whole script. He’s at 15.1 points and 4.6 rebounds, and his value here is that he can guard up a position while still being a real scoring threat.
For the Warriors, Brandin Podziemski has to play bigger than his name. He’s at 12.2 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 3.4 assists, and with Butler and Kuminga out, they need his secondary creation to be real, not just “keep the ball moving.”
De’Anthony Melton is the other swing. He’s at 11.3 points with real defensive juice, and the Warriors need someone who can bother Edwards at the point of attack without constantly needing help.
Buddy Hield is the wild card. He’s at 8.0 points in a smaller role, but the Warriors don’t need “good,” they need one of those nights where he hits three quick threes and forces the Timberwolves to guard differently. If he’s cold, the Timberwolves can stay glued to Curry and live with everything else.
Prediction
With Butler and Kuminga out, I’m not buying the Warriors having enough downhill pressure to consistently keep the Timberwolves honest. The Timberwolves’ defense is too stable, their offense is too efficient, and at home, they should be able to win the non-Curry minutes instead of just surviving them.
Prediction: Timberwolves 120, Warriors 113
