The Denver Nuggets host the Houston Rockets at Ball Arena, and it feels like a “top of the West” check-in more than a random regular-season game. ESPN has the matchup listed with NBA TV coverage.
The Nuggets are 20-6 and sit second in the Western Conference. The Rockets are 16-8 and sit fifth in the West.
These two already have history this season, and it’s fresh. The Nuggets beat the Rockets 128-125 in overtime on December 15, with Nikola Jokic putting up 39 points, 15 rebounds, and 10 assists in the win.
The stars are doing star things. Jokic is averaging 29.6 points, 12.3 rebounds, and 10.9 assists while shooting 61.2% from the field this season. Jamal Murray is right there too at 25.2 points and 6.6 assists on 50.1% from the field.
On the Rockets side, Kevin Durant is at 25.1 points per game on 51.3% from the field, and Alperen Sengun is at 23.7 points, 9.5 rebounds, and 7.2 assists while shooting 49.5% from the field.
Injury Report
Nuggets
Aaron Gordon: Out (right hamstring strain)
Christian Braun: Out (left ankle sprain)
DaRon Holmes II: Out (G League, on assignment)
Peyton Watson: Questionable (right trunk contusion)
Rockets
Tari Eason: Out (left lower leg, injury management)
Dorian Finney-Smith: Out (left ankle, surgery)
Fred VanVleet: Out (right knee, ACL repair)
Why The Nuggets Have The Advantage
This starts and ends with the fact that the Nuggets get to run a real offense for 48 minutes, and it’s built around the most unfair decision-maker in the league. Jokic isn’t just producing, he’s doing it with full control. When a guy puts up those numbers, there is no “perfect” coverage.
The second thing is form. The Nuggets are on a six-game win streak, and they’re coming off a win where Jokic made history as the all-time assists leader among centers. That’s the kind of locker room energy that turns close games into “yeah, we’re not losing tonight.”
And even if the Rockets make this physical, the Nuggets have already shown they can survive that exact kind of game. That December 15 overtime win matters because it wasn’t some fluky blowout where one team couldn’t miss. It was a fight, it got late, and the Nuggets still executed.
Defensively, the Nuggets aren’t elite like the Rockets, but they’ve still done enough to win the games that matter because their offense doesn’t waste possessions. The Nuggets are allowing 116.2 opponent points per game, which is middle-pack, but they don’t need a lockdown defense every night when Jokic is turning possessions into high-quality looks over and over.
Why The Rockets Have The Advantage
The Rockets’ biggest edge is that they can make this game uncomfortable without needing a miracle shooting night. Their defense has been legit all season at 112.1 opponent points per game, one of the best marks in the league. That matters because it gives them a floor. Even if the offense gets choppy, they can still hang around by forcing tougher shots and winning the effort possessions.
They also have two stars who can create in different ways, and that matters against a Nuggets team missing some key defensive pieces. Durant is still an absurd shot-maker, and he’s coming off a 32-point night in that overtime loss to the Pelicans. That’s not a “he played fine” stat line, that’s a reminder that he can drag a team through rough stretches when everything else looks stuck.
Then you have Sengun, who is basically the chaos agent in this matchup. He already posted a triple-double against the Nuggets in that December 15 game, and his season stat line shows why he’s so hard to scheme against.
The formula for the Rockets is pretty clear. Slow the game just enough to keep it from becoming a Nuggets rhythm session, win the defensive possession battle, and make it a fourth-quarter coin flip. If it’s close late, Durant gives them a shot in any building.
Nuggets vs. Rockets Prediction
I’m taking the Nuggets again. The Rockets have the defensive profile to keep this close, and I fully expect Sengun and Durant to put pressure on the Nuggets’ thin defensive wings tonight. But Jokic at Ball Arena, with the Nuggets rolling on a six-game win streak, feels like the deciding factor.
Prediction: Nuggets 124, Rockets 118
