The Toronto Raptors host the Boston Celtics at Scotiabank Arena tonight. This is a legit Eastern Conference measuring stick right now. The Raptors are 17-11 and sit in third place in the East. The Celtics are 16-11 and sit in fourth place.
And yeah, they’ve already seen each other this season. The Celtics beat the Raptors 121-113 on December 7, so the Celtics come in up 1-0 in the season series.
Even without Jayson Tatum, the Celtics still have real firepower. Jaylen Brown is having an unreal year at 29.3 points, 6.2 rebounds, and 4.9 assists per game on 50.0% from the field and 36.1% from three.
For the Raptors, Brandon Ingram has been the steady bucket at 22.0 points per game on 47.3% from the field, and Scottie Barnes is right behind him at 19.8 points, 8.0 rebounds, and 5.2 assists while shooting 50.8% from the field and 38.6% from three.
Injury Report
Raptors
RJ Barrett: Out (right knee sprain)
Jonathan Mogbo: Out (G League, on assignment)
Jakob Poeltl: Questionable (lower back, injury management)
Celtics
Jayson Tatum: Out (right Achilles repair)
Ron Harper Jr.: Out (G League, two-way)
Max Shulga: Out (G League, two-way)
Amari Williams: Out (G League, two-way)
Sam Hauser: Probable (left ankle sprain)
Josh Minott: Probable (low back spasm)
Why The Raptors Have The Advantage
The Raptors’ advantage starts with the setting and the standings reality. They’ve been slightly better overall, they’re higher in the East, and they’re at home. That matters for a team that plays with energy swings, because home court gives them a little extra juice for the defensive stretches that decide games.
But the real basketball reason is balance. The Raptors have creators who can score from different zones, and they have enough defensive bite to make the Celtics work for every clean look.
Ingram’s value here is simple: he can get a shot whenever the offense gets stuck. His scoring doesn’t depend on a perfect play call. He can live in the midrange, punish switches, and make you pay when you over-help on Barnes. That matters against a Celtics team that might lean heavily on Brown for the first punch. If the Raptors can answer those runs with steady half-court buckets, they can keep the game in the range they want.
Barnes is the wildcard because his shooting jump changes the entire matchup. If he’s a real three-point threat, defenders can’t sag and clog the lane. That opens up driving lanes, cuts, and the short-roll passing game, where the Raptors can steal easy points without grinding.
Jakob Poeltl’s status matters a lot as well. If he plays and looks normal, the Raptors get rim protection, rebounding structure, and a calmer defensive foundation against all the Celtics’ spacing. If Poeltl sits, it gets harder, but the Raptors can still win with physicality and pace, especially if they turn missed threes into run-outs and make the Celtics defend in transition.
Why The Celtics Have The Advantage
This starts with the Celtics still being able to play “math” basketball at a brutal level, even without Tatum. They launch threes in volume, they move the ball, and when they get rolling, you look up, and you’re down 14 in two minutes.
And the guy who makes it all feel survivable without Tatum is Brown. When you’re getting 29.3 a night on 50.0% from the field, plus 36.1% from three, you can function without your usual top option because the offense still has a real engine. The Raptors can load up, they can send bodies, they can try to make him see crowds, but Brown has been too physical and too decisive to get played off the floor.
Derrick White is the swing piece here. The season efficiency might not pop the way it did at his peak, but the role stays the same: he fires from deep, he attacks gaps, and he makes the extra pass that turns a good possession into a great one. If White is hitting, it’s a nightmare because the Raptors can’t “help” the way they want to. They end up guarding the whole floor, and that’s where the Celtics turn a normal game into a three-point avalanche.
Even defensively, the Celtics don’t need to be perfect if they can avoid wasted trips. That’s the real separator. When the Celtics get clean looks early in the clock and force the Raptors to play from behind, the whole game tilts. The Raptors start pressing, the pace gets messy, and that usually benefits the team that can score in bunches without needing free throws.
If this turns into a late-game execution battle, I trust the Celtics’ shot quality more. The Celtics don’t need to dominate every quarter. They just need two runs. And they’re built to create them.
Raptors vs. Celtics Prediction
I’m leaning Celtics in a close one, mostly because the spacing and shot volume tend to travel, and Brown has been playing like a problem teams can’t solve right now.
If Poeltl plays and actually stabilizes the paint, this gets way tighter, and the Raptors have a real shot to flip it late. But if the Celtics get their usual three-point volume and survive the non-Brown minutes without bleeding points, I think they edge it.
Prediction: Celtics 118, Raptors 114
