The Nuggets host the Bucks at Ball Arena on Sunday, January 11 at 8:00 PM ET.
The Nuggets come in at 25-13 (3rd in the West), while the Bucks sit at 17-21 (11th in the East).
The Bucks just beat the Lakers 105-101 in their last outing, while the Nuggets are coming off a brutal 110-87 loss to the Hawks.
This is the first meeting of the season, and they’ll see each other again later this month.
For the Nuggets, Nikola Jokic has put up 29.6 points, 12.2 rebounds, and 11.0 assists with 60.5% from the field, but he’s listed out. Jamal Murray has been rolling at 25.3 points and 7.5 assists on 44.3% from three, but he’s questionable too.
For the Bucks, Giannis Antetokounmpo is at 29.2 points, 9.8 rebounds, and 5.5 assists while shooting 65.0% from the field. Kevin Porter Jr. has been a real engine at 18.4 points and 7.8 assists with 38.2% from three.
Bottom line, this game swings hard on who actually suits up, especially on the Nuggets side.
Injury Report
Nuggets
Tamar Bates: Out (left foot surgery)
Cameron Johnson: Out (right knee bone bruise)
Nikola Jokic: Out (left knee bone bruise)
Jamal Murray: Questionable (left ankle)
Spencer Jones: Questionable (left ankle inflammation/illness)
Aaron Gordon: Probable (right hamstring strain)
Christian Braun: Probable (left ankle sprain)
Bucks
Taurean Prince: Out (neck surgery)
Kevin Porter Jr.: Probable (right hip contusion)
Why The Nuggets Have The Advantage
Even without the obvious name, the Nuggets still play like an avalanche offensively. They’re at 123.1 points per game on 50.5% from the field, and they’re drilling 40.2% from three. That’s not “good”, that’s “you blink and you’re down 12.”
They also move it. The Nuggets average 28.9 assists per game, and that matters a ton if Murray plays because it becomes a constant two-side attack, not a one-man show.
And here’s the sneaky part. The Nuggets can win the math game. They don’t turn it over much (13.3 per game), they bomb away efficiently, and that’s exactly how you survive a night where you’re missing your superstar.
If they get even one of Murray or Gordon close to full-go, the Bucks are going to have to guard for 24 seconds every single trip.
Why The Bucks Have The Advantage
This matchup is begging for the Bucks to spam Giannis pressure at the rim. The Nuggets give up 117.84 points per game, and their defensive profile has been shaky all season.
The Bucks aren’t some elite offense, but they’re clean. They shoot 48.6% from the field and 39.6% from three, so if the Nuggets sell out to wall off Giannis, the kick-outs are going to be there.
Also, the Bucks can actually defend better than people assume right now. They allow 115.65 points per game, and if Murray sits, they can load up even harder on the Nuggets’ next creators and turn this into a grinder.
If the Bucks keep it close late, Giannis becomes the best closer on the floor by default. That’s the whole argument.
X-Factors
Peyton Watson has quietly become a real swing piece. He’s at 13.0 points, 4.9 rebounds, and 1.6 assists, plus 1.0 steals and 1.0 blocks, and he plays like he’s trying to steal your lunch money on every possession. If he hits threes early, the Bucks can’t shrink the floor the way they want to.
Aaron Gordon is the other massive lever if he’s active and looks right. He’s at 18.1 points and 6.1 rebounds, and he’s the guy who can punish switches with quick seals and cuts when teams overload on the main actions. If he’s limited, the Nuggets lose a lot of their “easy points” package.
Christian Braun is a total wild card, but his role is simple tonight. Guard, run, don’t get cooked. He’s at 9.5 points, 4.2 rebounds, and 2.5 assists, and if his ankle’s fine, he’s the type who can turn a normal possession into chaos with one deflection.
On the Bucks side, Bobby Portis has to win his minutes. He’s at 12.9 points and 6.6 rebounds in a bench role, and against a Nuggets team missing frontcourt bodies, he should be hunting extra boards and quick put-backs.
AJ Green is the spacing check. He’s scoring 10.2 points per game while shooting 43.1% from three, and that’s the exact type of guy who turns “Giannis drive” into “pick your poison.” If Green pops, the Nuggets can’t help off him at all.
Myles Turner is the chess piece. He’s at 12.3 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 1.6 blocks, and his ability to protect the rim while also dragging a big out to the arc can mess with how the Nuggets want to defend Giannis. If Turner wins the paint deterrence battle, the Bucks’ floor rises a lot.
Prediction
I’m leaning Nuggets because the shooting and ball movement are real, and the Bucks feel like they need a near-perfect Giannis night plus a clean KPJ game to survive the volume threes. If Murray plays, I like the Nuggets comfortably. If he sits, it gets sweaty, but I still trust the home offense to find enough points.
Prediction: Nuggets 121, Bucks 116
