The Nuggets host the Thunder at Ball Arena on Sunday, February 1, at 9:30 PM ET.
The Thunder are 38-11 as the No. 1 seed in the West, while the Nuggets are 33-16 and No. 2.
The Thunder just lost 123-111 to the Timberwolves, and the Nuggets are feeling good after a 122-109 win over the Clippers with Jokic back from a long absence.
This is the first meeting of a four-game season series, and yeah, the energy is different because the Thunder sent the Nuggets home in the playoffs last spring.
On the floor, it starts with Nikola Jokic putting up 29.7 points, 12.2 rebounds, and 10.8 assists per game, and Jamal Murray adding 25.8 points and 7.4 assists with 44.7% from three.
For the Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is dropping 32.0 points and 6.2 assists on 55.6% from the field, and Chet Holmgren is giving them 16.5 points, 9.6 rebounds, and 2.0 blocks a night.
This game has a potential West Finals preview vibe, but it’s also a stress test of availability, because both teams are missing real rotation pieces.
Injury Report
Nuggets
Aaron Gordon: Out (right hamstring strain)
Cameron Johnson: Out (right knee bone bruise)
Christian Braun: Doubtful (left ankle sprain)
Nikola Jokic: Probable (left knee bone bruise)
Jamal Murray: Probable (right hamstring inflammation/left hip inflammation)
Thunder
Jalen Williams: Out (right hamstring strain)
Alex Caruso: Out (right adductor strain)
Ajay Mitchell: Out (abdominal strain)
Thomas Sorber: Out (right ACL surgical recovery)
Nikola Topic: Out (surgical recovery)
Why The Nuggets Have The Advantage
If you’re looking for the cleanest “how do the Nuggets win” argument, it’s shot quality plus shot-making. The Nuggets are scoring 120.1 points per game on 49.6% from the field, and they’re burying 39.8% from three, which is straight-up elite.
This matchup also tilts toward their half-court machine when Jokic is available. He’s basically a system by himself, and the numbers back it up: 29.7, 12.2, and 10.8, on 60.8% from the field. If he’s truly “probable” and not “probable but limited,” the Nuggets’ offense gets to its favorite place fast, paint touches that turn into open threes.
The Thunder defense is nasty, but the Nuggets don’t beat themselves. They’re only at 12.5 turnovers per game, and they’re top-tier in assists at 28.0 per night, which matters versus a team that thrives when you get frantic.
Also, don’t ignore the home angle. Ball Arena at night for a heavyweight game is a real thing, and the Nuggets’ shooting profile plays up when they’re comfortable.
Why The Thunder Have The Advantage
The Thunder’s case is simple: two-way dominance, every single night. They’re scoring 120.3 points per game while allowing just 108.0, and that points allowed number is the kind that travels.
They also have the best individual problem on the floor in Shai. 32.0 points, 6.2 assists, 55.6% from the field, and 39.0% from three. That’s not “good guard play,” that’s “bend your defense until it snaps” guard play.
Even with some key outs, they still play with structure. They rebound well enough (43.6 per game), they move it (25.5 assists), and they don’t cough it up much (12.3 turnovers). That combo is why they’re sitting on top of the West.
And here’s the big one for this specific matchup: the Nuggets are missing defensive connective tissue. No Gordon, Braun likely limited or out, and suddenly the Thunder’s drive-and-kick game looks a lot less crowded.
X-Factors
Peyton Watson has quietly become a real swing piece, 14.7 points, 4.9 rebounds, and 1.9 assists with 41.6% from three. If he hits shots early, the Thunder can’t overcommit bodies at Jokic, and that’s when the Nuggets get their avalanche runs.
Tim Hardaway Jr. is another “either this matters a ton or not at all” guy. He’s at 14.1 points per game and 40.8% from three. If he’s bombing, the Thunder’s help defense becomes a gamble, and the Nuggets’ spacing looks unfair.
Jonas Valanciunas is the body-check option. He’s not playing huge minutes (8.3 points, 4.6 rebounds), but in a game where both teams may be managing bigs and fouls, those backup center minutes can decide a 6-point game.
For the Thunder, Isaiah Hartenstein is massive because he lets them stay big without losing their identity. He’s putting up 11.2 points, 10.2 rebounds, and 2.9 assists on 64.0% shooting. If he wins the glass and keeps possessions alive, the Thunder can survive cold shooting stretches.
Luguentz Dort is the tone-setter on defense, and he’s also a sneaky “spacing or no spacing” piece. He’s at 8.7 points and shooting 35.0% from three. If he’s making those corner looks, the Thunder’s offense gets way harder to load up on.
Aaron Wiggins is the exact kind of depth scorer that can steal a quarter. 10.5 points, 3.4 rebounds, 1.9 assists, and 38.2% from three. If he’s cooking second units, the Thunder can keep pressure on even when Shai sits.
Prediction
I’m taking the Nuggets, mostly because I trust their shot-making and their half-court execution more in a tight fourth, especially with Jokic back in the middle of everything.
The Thunder are the better “full game” team, but with Jalen Williams out and the Nuggets bombing at nearly 40.0% from three, this feels like one of those nights where the math and the matchup swing toward the home team.
Prediction: Nuggets 116, Thunder 111
