The Suns host the Pistons at Footprint Center on Thursday, January 29, at 9:00 PM ET.
The Pistons come in at 34-11 and sitting first in the East, while the Suns are 28-19 and currently sixth in the West.
Both teams are off wins, with the Pistons coming off a 109-107 win over the Nuggets, and the Suns just taking a 106-102 win over the Nets.
These teams already saw each other once, with the Pistons squeezing out a 108-105 win on January 15.
The headliners are obvious. Cade Cunningham is at 25.3 points and 9.8 assists per game, and Jalen Duren has been a problem inside at 17.7 points and 10.6 rebounds.
For the Suns, Devin Booker is at 25.4 points and 6.2 assists, while Dillon Brooks has been a steady scoring wing at 20.5 points per game.
Now here’s the spice: Booker is out, and that changes the whole vibe of this matchup.
Injury Report
Suns
Devin Booker: Out (right ankle sprain)
Jalen Green: Questionable (right hamstring strain)
Collin Gillespie: Questionable (right hand sprain)
Jordan Goodwin: Available (mask)
Pistons
Isaac Jones: Out (G League on assignment)
Wendell Moore Jr: Out (G League two-way)
Tolu Smith: Out (G League two-way)
Caris LeVert: Questionable (illness)
Why The Pistons Have The Advantage
This is the cleanest stat profile in the game right now. The Pistons are scoring 117.2 points per game while allowing just 110.0, which is exactly how you end up sitting on top of your conference in January.
They also win the “adult basketball” categories. They shoot 47.9% from the field, rebound at 45.9 per game, and move the ball with 26.6 assists a night.
That’s a lot of pressure on a Suns team that’s going to be missing its main organizer and bailout scorer.
And there’s the simple reality: the Pistons already beat this matchup once, 108-105, in a tight game that came down to late execution. If the pace slows again, I trust Cunningham to control the game more than I trust the Suns to manufacture offense without Booker.
Why The Suns Have The Advantage
The Suns’ path is shooting, volume, and forcing the Pistons to chase. They’re putting up 114.0 points per game, hitting 36.1% from three, and they take a lot of them at 39.4 attempts per game.
If that’s even a little hot early, it changes the math fast.
Their defense has also been good enough to keep games in the mud when they need it, allowing 111.6 points per game.
So even without Booker, they can still build a winnable game if they turn this into a possession battle and let their wings attack mismatches.
The big swing is whether they can replace Booker’s creation by committee. If the ball pops and the threes fall, they have the home-court punch to steal this one.
X-Factors
Duncan Robinson is the Pistons’ swing shooter. He’s at 11.9 points per game while drilling 39.4% from three, and the Suns are a team that can’t afford to overhelp on Cunningham drives.
If Robinson gets two clean looks early and hits them, the Suns’ defense gets stretched thin and it becomes a long night.
Ausar Thompson is the Pistons’ chaos button. He’s putting up 10.8 points, 5.9 rebounds, and 1.8 steals per game, and he’s the kind of defender who can turn a normal possession into a live-ball turnover and a runout.
Against a Suns group missing key shot creation, those extra possessions are brutal.
Tobias Harris is the quiet stabilizer. He’s at 13.6 points per game on 46.6% from the field, and if the Suns load up on Cunningham and Duren, Harris is going to get those “fine, take it” shots at the elbows and corners.
For the Suns, Grayson Allen is the obvious heater guy. He’s averaging 16.4 points and 3.8 assists, and he’s the one perimeter player who can single-handedly mimic Booker’s scoring pressure for a stretch.
If he’s cooking off movement threes, the Suns can survive the non-Booker minutes a lot easier.
Mark Williams matters because the Pistons want to live in the paint. He’s at 12.3 points, 8.2 rebounds, and 1.0 blocks per game while shooting 66.0% from the field.
If he holds up as a rim presence without fouling, the Suns can stay home on shooters and force tougher finishes.
Royce O’Neale is the glue. He’s at 10.2 points and 4.9 rebounds per game, and he’s the type who can guard up a position, hit a corner three, and not hijack possessions.
In a Booker-less game, those “do your job” minutes are gold.
Prediction
I’m leaning Pistons. They’ve already proven they can win this matchup, and the numbers back the idea that they’re more reliable on both ends, especially defensively.
The Suns can absolutely steal it if the threes come easy, but asking them to out-execute Cunningham late without Booker feels like playing on hard mode.
Prediction: Pistons 115, Suns 108
