The Golden State Warriors‘ 2025-26 NBA season came to an end after a 111-96 loss to the Phoenix Suns in the Play-In Tournament. The Suns will go on to face the No. 1 seed OKC Thunder in the first round, while the Warriors regroup in the offseason after a rough campaign dominated by injury troubles.
The Warriors and the 13 other eliminated NBA teams might not have Playoff basketball to look forward to, but they do have the 2026 NBA Draft Lottery as a shining beacon of hope that they might get lucky and add a new generational youngster for the future of the franchise. With Stephen Curry admitting that retirement isn’t close for him, many fans are looking to the lottery as a chance to acquire a star alongside Curry without needing to make an asset-draining trade.
The Warriors and Charlotte Hornets joined the club of eliminated teams last night, setting the 2026 NBA Draft Lottery up. The official odds each team carries into the lottery for the No. 1 pick have been confirmed with the Warriors and Hornets’ elimination.
1. Washington Wizards – 14%
2. Indiana Pacers – 14%
3. Brooklyn Nets – 14%
4. Utah Jazz – 11.5%
5. Sacramento Kings – 11.5%
6. Memphis Grizzlies – 9.0%
7. Atlanta Hawks (via New Orleans Pelicans) – 6.8%*
8. Dallas Mavericks – 6.7%
9. Chicago Bulls – 4.5%
10. Milwaukee Bucks – 3.0%*
11. Golden State Warriors – 2.0%
12. OKC Thunder (via Los Angeles Clippers) – 1.5%
13. Miami Heat – 1.0%
14. Charlotte Hornets – 0.5%
*The Hawks receive the most favorable pick out of the Pelicans and Bucks’ lottery odds, with the Bucks receiving the less favorable pick. Pelicans don’t receive any picks after they traded their rights for the draft rights to Derik Queen from the Hawks in the 2025 NBA Draft.
Some positions in the lottery might change with coin tosses to separate teams with tied records, like the Mavericks and Pelicans (Hawks).
The Warriors have the same odds the Atlanta Hawks had before the 2024 NBA Draft, which allowed them to jump up to No. 1 and select Zaccharie Risacher. The Dallas Mavericks had worse odds than the Warriors currently have when they jumped up in the 2025 NBA Draft Lottery to select Cooper Flagg with the No. 1 pick.
The Warriors might have only a 2.0% chance to jump up to No. 1, but they have a 9.6% chance of winning a top-four pick in the lottery. With the 2026 NBA Draft having a clear top-four with AJ Dybantsa, Darryn Peterson, Cameron Boozer, and Caleb Wilson, a top-four pick could be franchise-altering for the Warriors.
Since they still own most of their future draft capital, a top-four pick might allow the Warriors to make some major win-now moves. If Curry is staying and looking to extend his contract, it’s unlikely the Warriors can bottom out and tank with the franchise icon still on the franchise. That commitment should give them more than enough reason to push for a star trade to save the dying Warriors dynasty.
If they stay at No. 11, they’ll have potential prospects like forwards Hannes Steinbach, Nate Ament, and Yaxel Lendeborg, alongside guards Mikel Brown Jr. and Labaron Philon to select from. While these are still great prospects in a loaded draft, the Warriors might be better off using a late-lottery pick in a trade for another star.
A top-four pick is something they’d want to develop and set up as the next franchise star after the Curry era, but it might be too risky to develop one of the late-lottery prospects in the middle of a win-now timeline.
Finishing with the 15th pick after a first-round loss to the Thunder would not set the franchise up nearly as well as this lottery position does. They have a sub-10% chance to walk out with a potentially generational prospect and have a guaranteed lottery pick in a heralded draft class.
Even with question marks around Steve Kerr’s future and whether Jimmy Butler will be traded before he recovers from his ACL tear, this is a great outcome for Golden State’s future.
