The Thunder host the Warriors at Paycom Center on Saturday, March 7, at 8:30 PM ET on ABC. The Thunder are 49-15 and first in the West, while the Warriors are 32-30 and eighth. At home, the Thunder are 25-6, and the Warriors are 13-17 on the road.
The Warriors come in after a 115-113 overtime win over the Rockets on Thursday. The Thunder last played on Wednesday and beat the Knicks 103-100. This is the fourth meeting of the season, and the Thunder already leads the series 3-0.
Brandin Podziemski is averaging 12.6 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 3.7 assists, while Draymond Green is at 8.4 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 5.2 assists.
For the Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is at 31.9 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 6.4 assists, and Chet Holmgren is putting up 17.3 points, 9.0 rebounds, and 1.8 assists, along with 1.9 blocks.
The setup is straightforward. The Thunder have already won this matchup three times, and the Warriors are walking into another road game with a thin rotation missing Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler, Moses Moody, and with Kristaps Porzingis in limbo.
Injury Report
Thunder
Alex Caruso: Out (left hip contusion)
Jalen Williams: Out (right hamstring strain)
Isaiah Hartenstein: Out (left calf contusion)
Ajay Mitchell: Out (abdominal strain/left ankle sprain)
Thomas Sorber: Out (right ACL surgical recovery)
Branden Carlson: Out (low back strain)
Warriors
Stephen Curry: Out (right patellofemoral pain syndrome)
Jimmy Butler: Out (right ACL surgery)
Moses Moody: Out (right wrist sprain)
Kristaps Porzingis: Questionable (general illness)
Will Richard: Questionable (right ankle sprain)
Seth Curry: Questionable (left sciatic nerve irritation)
De’Anthony Melton: Questionable (left knee injury management)
Gary Payton II: Probable (left ankle impingement)
Why The Thunder Have The Advantage
The Thunder brings the stronger two-way profile into the game. They are scoring 118.9 points per game, which ranks fifth, and allowing 107.8, which ranks second. They are also shooting 48.2% from the field, good for fourth in the league.
Their defensive pressure shows up in the basic team numbers. The Thunder are averaging 9.8 steals per game, fourth in the league, and 5.6 blocks, which ranks sixth. They also force 17.0 turnovers per game, the second-best mark in the league.
The Thunder also finishes possessions well. They pull down 34.5 defensive rebounds per game, which ranks fifth. That is a useful number against a Warriors team that depends on extra actions and second efforts to keep its three-point volume high.
The matchup history is hard to ignore. The Thunder are 3-0 against the Warriors this season, and they have held the Warriors to 102, 112, and 94 points in those wins. If the Thunder defend at their usual level again, the Warriors will need an unusually clean offensive night to stay close.
Why The Warriors Have The Advantage
The Warriors still have a clear offensive identity, even without some of their top names. They are averaging 29.2 assists per game, which ranks third in the league. They also make 16.3 threes per game and attempt 45.3, both first in the league.
That style can keep them in the game if they get enough shots up. The Warriors are scoring 115.3 points per game, and while the overall efficiency is more middle-of-the-pack at 46.1% from the field, the volume from deep can change a game quickly.
There is also some defensive activity behind their profile. The Warriors average 9.9 steals per game, tied for third in the league, and they force 16.0 turnovers per game, which ranks fourth. They also allow only 21.9 free throw attempts per game, fifth-best in the league.
The clean Warriors’ path is easy to identify. The Thunder are only 29th in offensive rebounds at 9.4 per game, so if the Warriors can keep the game to one shot, move the ball, and stay near their normal three-point volume, they can turn this into a possession-by-possession game instead of a pure talent game.
X-Factors
Isaiah Joe is averaging 10.9 points, 2.6 rebounds, and 1.4 assists. He is one of the Thunder’s cleanest spacing pieces, and that becomes even more important with Jalen Williams out. If Joe hits early threes, the Warriors have to stay attached, and that opens the floor further for Gilgeous-Alexander and Holmgren.
Cason Wallace is putting up 8.9 points, 3.2 rebounds, and 2.7 assists, and he is also at 2.0 steals per game. His role here is simple: pressure the ball, keep the pace under control, and turn loose Warriors possessions into easy points the other way. If Wallace wins those perimeter minutes, the Thunder’s defense gets even harder to score on over 48 minutes.
De’Anthony Melton is averaging 12.7 points, 2.9 rebounds, and 2.4 assists, along with 1.6 steals per game. With Stephen Curry and Moses Moody out, the Warriors need his shot creation and perimeter defense even more. If Melton can give them another scoring line in the teens while holding up on the other end, the offense becomes less dependent on one creator.
Gary Payton II is at 5.9 points, 3.1 rebounds, and 1.6 assists. His value in this matchup is defensive pressure. The Warriors need someone who can bother the ball, cut off easy drives, and turn one or two possessions into transition chances. If Payton is active and healthy enough to play his normal role, the Warriors can make the Thunder work harder to get into offense.
Prediction
The Thunder have the cleaner case. They are second in points allowed, fourth in field goal percentage, fourth in steals, and they have already beaten the Warriors three times. The Warriors’ three-point volume gives them a path, but the Thunder have been better on both ends all season and are not the team missing the two star engines.
Prediction: Thunder 122, Warriors 108
