The Golden State Warriors host the Sacramento Kings at Chase Center on Friday, January 9, at 10:00 PM ET.
The Warriors come in at 20-18 (8th in the West), while the Kings are sitting at 8-29 (14th).
Last time out, the Warriors beat the Bucks 120-113, and the Kings dropped a 100-98 game to the Mavericks.
These teams have already seen each other once this season, and the Kings took the first meeting 121-116, so yeah, there’s a little edge to this one.
Stephen Curry is still doing his thing at 28.8 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 4.5 assists per game, and Jimmy Butler is right there as the second engine at 19.7 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 4.9 assists.
For the Kings, Zach LaVine leads the scoring at 20.2 points per game, and DeMar DeRozan sits at 18.4 points with 3.8 assists.
This is one of those games where the margins scream louder than the names, especially with the Kings missing a massive piece in Domantas Sabonis.
Injury Report
Warriors
Seth Curry: Out (left sciatic nerve irritation)
Gary Payton II: Probable (left ankle sprain)
Kings
Domantas Sabonis: Out (left knee partial meniscus tear)
Keegan Murray: Out (left ankle sprain)
Why The Warriors Have The Advantage
First, the baseline math is ugly for the Kings. The Warriors are at 115.0 points per game, the Kings are at 109.9, and that’s before we even talk about who’s missing.
The Warriors also move the ball better. They’re at 28.1 assists per game, and the Kings are at 25.0. That gap matters in a matchup where one side is going to be leaning hard on tough-shot creators late.
And I’m betting on the Warriors winning the shooting battle. They’re at 36.0% from three as a team, while the Kings sit at 34.3%. It’s not a massive gap, but when Curry’s on the floor, “small gap” turns into “whole game swings.”
The big one: Sabonis being out changes the entire problem set. The Kings lose their hub, their screening, their rebounding glue, and the one guy who can consistently punish small lineups. That’s basically an open invite for the Warriors to stay in their preferred style.
Why The Kings Have The Advantage
If the Kings are going to make this uncomfortable, it starts with pace and pressure on the ball. The Warriors cough it up 14.5 times per game, and that’s the one stat that can keep a weaker team alive on the road.
They also have the cleanest “go get a bucket” duo for this matchup. LaVine is at 20.2 per game on 48.4% from the field and 38.6% from three, and DeRozan is at 18.4 with 3.8 assists. If those two get hot early, it forces the Warriors into rotation mode, and that’s where chaos happens.
And honestly, the Warriors’ defense gives you a window. They allow 113.6 points per game (8th), so the Kings do not need perfection. They just need one good shooting night and a couple runs where the Warriors settle.
X-Factors
De’Anthony Melton is the Warriors’ swing piece for me. He’s at 9.0 points, 2.5 rebounds, 1.8 assists, and a nasty 1.7 steals per game. If he turns this into a deflections game and makes the Kings play later into the clock, it gets dark fast.
Quinten Post matters too because he lets the Warriors survive the non-Curry minutes without bleeding size. He’s at 8.0 points and 4.0 rebounds, and if he spaces enough to pull a big away from the rim, the Warriors’ drivers get way cleaner angles.
And don’t sleep on Moses Moody. He’s at 10.5 points and 3.3 rebounds, and the shot is at 36.8% from three. If he hits two early ones, the Kings’ help defense starts cheating, and that’s when Curry gets the “welcome to hell” spacing.
On the Kings’ side, Malik Monk is the spark plug. He’s at 11.4 points and 2.2 assists in 21.6 minutes, and they need his bench creation to be real, not just “vibes.” If he wins the second unit minutes, the Kings have a pulse.
Keon Ellis is another sneaky one. He’s only at 5.7 points, but he brings 1.2 steals per game, and the Kings need someone to make Curry work just to start possessions. If Ellis is disruptive without fouling, the Kings can hang around.
And Maxime Raynaud becomes huge with Sabonis out. He’s at 10.5 points and 6.4 rebounds, and the Kings basically need him to survive the glass and protect the paint without giving up a parade of layups.
Prediction
I’m taking the Warriors. The Kings being down Sabonis and Murray is just too much structure missing, and the Warriors are built to turn that into a 10-minute avalanche when the threes start falling.
Prediction: Warriors 118, Kings 109
