The Golden State Warriors finally get Stephen Curry back on Friday, and his return could not come at a better time. Golden State sits at 13-12, eighth in the West, still trying to find a real rhythm in a brutal conference.
Waiting for them at Chase Center are the Minnesota Timberwolves, 15-9 and playing like a legit top-six team behind an explosive offense and Anthony Edwards’ leap into full-blown superstardom.
This will be the first meeting between the Warriors and Timberwolves in 2025-26. The season series will heat up later with two more clashes in Minnesota before a fourth and final one at the Bay, but for now, this is the opener, and it doubles as Steph Curry’s return game.
Injury Report
Timberwolves
- Joan Beringer: Out (G League assignment)
- Mike Conley: Out (right Achilles tendinopathy)
- Anthony Edwards: Questionable (right foot soreness)
- Enrique Freeman: Out (Two-Way, G League)
- Rocco Zikarsky: Out (Two-Way, G League)
Conley being ruled out matters. He is still the primary organizer in the half-court, and losing his pick-and-roll chemistry with Rudy Gobert puts even more shot-creation weight on Edwards and Julius Randle. If Edwards’ right foot is bothering him at all, that is a massive swing.
Warriors
- Draymond Green: Out (personal reasons)
- Al Horford: Out (right sciatic nerve irritation)
- Trayce Jackson-Davis: Probable (right knee, patellar tendonitis)
No Draymond Green hurts. He is still the defensive quarterback and their best passer in the frontcourt. Horford being out removes another veteran big who can space the floor. The good news for the Warriors is that Jackson-Davis is expected to go, which at least gives them some energy and rim protection in those non-small-ball minutes.
Most importantly, Curry is expected to return from the quad contusion that sidelined him for five games. During his absence, the Warriors went 3-2, but you could feel how much they missed his gravity. Over 16 appearances this season, he has averaged 27.9 points, 3.7 rebounds, and 4.0 assists on 47.1% from the field.
Why The Warriors Have The Advantage
Start with the obvious: getting Curry back changes everything. Even at 37, he is still one of the most dangerous offensive players on the planet, scoring just under 28 a night and warping defenses just by crossing half court.
Golden State’s bigger issue so far has been offense, not defense. Their offensive rating sits at 113.7, middle of the pack, but their defense has quietly been top-tier, second in defensive rating, and a small positive net rating overall.
They grind games down, force tough jumpers, and still have enough length on the perimeter with Jimmy Butler, Jonathan Kuminga, and Gary Payton II to bother big wings.
At home, that formula usually travels. The Warriors are back to playing more physical lineups, using Quinten Post and Jackson-Davis to protect the paint, then letting their guards push in transition. If Curry looks like himself, the entire shot diet improves for everyone else, especially Jimmy Butler and Brandin Podziemski, who get cleaner catch-and-shoot looks when defenses are tilted toward Curry.
Another quiet edge: Mike Conley’s absence. Minnesota’s offense can get messy when there is no steady point guard to set the table. Golden State can load up more aggressively on Edwards, show bodies early, and dare other Timberwolves to beat them as playmakers.
Why The Timberwolves Have The Advantage
Minnesota is simply the more stable team right now. At 15-9 with a +4.9 type net rating, they have been one of the most consistent groups in the West.
The headline is Edwards. He is averaging 28.7 points, 4.9 rebounds, and 3.8 assists while hitting 50.0% from the field.
When he gets downhill and the jumper is falling, there are only a handful of players in the league who can actually guard him one-on-one. Without Green on the floor, the Warriors have to lean on Butler, or aggressive traps, all of which come with trade-offs.
Then there is the size issue. The Timberwolves are huge. With Julius Randle, Gobert, and Naz Reid in the rotation, they hammer the glass and live at the rim. They average 119.6 points per game on 48.6% shooting, with 43.3 rebounds and 26.5 assists as a team.
Golden State’s smaller lineups can get punished inside if they do not win the perimeter battle decisively.
Even if Edwards is a bit compromised, the Wolves can still throw waves of bodies at Curry: Donte DiVincenzo, Terrence Shannon, Jaden McDaniels on switches. If they can keep him working on every possession and bait the Warriors’ secondary creators into forced shots, their offense on the other end is efficient enough to steal this on the road.
Warriors vs. Timberwolves Prediction
So what wins out: the Timberwolves’ size and Edwards’ shot-making, or the Warriors’ defense and the energy of Curry’s return?
If Edwards sits, this feels heavily tilted toward the Warriors. The Wolves would need a monster Randle game and a perfect shooting night from their role players to keep up with a Curry-led offense.
If Edwards plays (and the “questionable” tag usually leans that way), this becomes a lot tighter. Still, I like the Warriors here. They are at home, Curry is fresh after a five-game break, and even without Green, they have enough two-way wings to at least make Edwards work for everything. Their defense has been better than their record suggests, and getting their best player back usually gives you a jolt for at least one night.
Prediction: Warriors 117, Timberwolves 112
