The Knicks host the Lakers at Madison Square Garden on Sunday at 7:00 PM ET.
The Knicks come in at 30-18 and are sitting second in the East. The Lakers are 29-18 and fighting to stay in the top half of the West.
The Knicks just smoked the Trail Blazers 127-97, one of those “game was over early” nights. The Lakers just handled the Wizards 142-111, and Luka did Luka things.
This is the first meeting of the season, with the rematch later on March 8. Two teams that want to play slow, play physical, and turn the fourth quarter into a street fight.
For the Knicks, Jalen Brunson is at 27.6 points and 5.9 assists, and Karl-Anthony Towns is at 20.0 points and 11.8 rebounds.
For the Lakers, Luka Doncic is at 33.7 points, 7.8 rebounds, 8.8 assists, and LeBron James is at 22.0 points, 5.9 rebounds, 6.7 assists.
The Knicks have been rolling, MSG is going to be loud from the jump, and the Lakers come in with real question marks on their secondary ball-handling.
Injury Report
Knicks
Miles McBride: Out (left ankle injury management)
Lakers
Adou Thiero: Out (right MCL sprain)
Austin Reaves: Questionable (left calf strain)
Bronny James: Questionable (left lower leg soreness)
Why The Knicks Have The Advantage
The Knicks are simply the cleaner two-way team right now. They’re putting up 117.7 points per game while allowing 112.3, that’s a legit gap, and it shows up when games slow down late.
They also win the “volume and efficiency” battle. The Knicks are at 47.0% from the field and 37.8% from three, and they do it without puking possessions, just 13.9 turnovers per game. If this turns into a half-court grind at MSG, that combo is exactly how you build a 7-point lead that feels like 17.
The glass matters. The Knicks are grabbing 46.4 rebounds per game with 26.8 assists, so they can beat you with extra possessions and ball movement, not just hero shots. They’re playing at a 98.1 pace, so it’s not snail mode, but it’s controlled.
And if you want the advanced “who’s actually better” numbers, the Knicks have a 118.9 offensive rating and a +5.3 net rating. That’s contender math, especially at home.
Why The Lakers Have The Advantage
The Lakers’ edge is that they can score with anybody because they’re ridiculously efficient inside the arc. They’re at 49.8% from the field, and they’re elite in the restricted area at 73.9%. If they get downhill and live at the rim, the Knicks’ defense is going to get stressed fast.
They’re also not some slow, stuck-in-mud team. The Lakers are at 116.5 points per game on a 98.7 pace, so if they force misses and run, they can flip the game from “MSG chess match” into “track meet with space.”
Now, the obvious problem is defense. The Lakers are allowing 116.4 a night, and that’s the door the Knicks want to kick down.
But if the Lakers can just be average on that end for one night, their offense is real, 116.8 offensive rating, and they’re top-tier in effective field goal percentage at 56.9. That’s the profile of a team that can steal a road win even when it’s not perfect.
X-Factors
Mikal Bridges is the Knicks’ swing piece. He’s at 15.6 points, 4.4 rebounds, 4.2 assists, and he’s the guy who can guard up, guard down, and still give you offense without hijacking possessions. If Bridges wins enough possessions at the point of attack, the Knicks can keep their help defense intact and stop the Luka kickout machine from getting comfortable.
Josh Hart is the Knicks tone-setter. He’s at 10.8 points, 8.1 rebounds, 4.5 assists, and his value is that he turns “normal” possessions into extra possessions. If Hart is crashing, pushing tempo off rebounds, and forcing loose-ball chaos, the Knicks can win the shot volume battle even if the Lakers shoot well.
Miles McBride being out matters because he’s the kind of guard who makes scorers work. With him sidelined, the Knicks need someone else to supply that point-of-attack annoyance. If they don’t, Luka is going to walk into his spots, and the whole game tilts.
Austin Reaves is the Lakers’ swing piece if he plays. His scoring this season is big at 26.6 points, and his value is even bigger in this matchup because he keeps the Lakers from being “Luka or nothing” when the game tightens. If he’s limited, the Knicks can load up harder and make the Lakers’ possessions feel way more predictable.
Rui Hachimura is the “quiet points” guy. He’s at 12.1 points per game and hitting 43.8% from three, which means the Knicks can’t fully sell out. If Rui hits two early threes, the Knicks’ help defense starts hesitating, and that’s exactly what Luka wants.
Deandre Ayton is the survival piece. He’s at 13.6 points and 8.6 rebounds while finishing everything inside. If he holds up on the boards and gives the Lakers real rim finishing, it keeps the Lakers from getting bullied in the non-Luka minutes, and it gives them a clean counter to the Knicks’ physicality.
Prediction
I’m taking the Knicks at home. The Lakers can absolutely steal it if Luka turns it into a 40-point, 12-assist clinic and they hit threes, but with Reaves questionable and the Knicks playing confident basketball right now, this feels like one of those MSG games where the home team wins the fourth quarter.
Prediction: Knicks 117, Lakers 112
