The Miami Heat will host the Toronto Raptors in what feels like a sneaky heavyweight game in the East. The Raptors are 15-11, and the Heat are 14-11, and the standings gap is basically nothing right now.
Both teams are also coming in irritated. The Raptors just got bounced in the NBA Cup quarterfinals by the New York Knicks and have dropped four straight, while the Heat also entered this one on a four-game skid after losing to the Orlando Magic.
This is one of those “who blinks first” matchups. The Heat have been elite at home at 10-3, while the Raptors have been totally fine on the road at 7-5.
Injury Report
Raptors
- RJ Barrett: Out (right knee sprain)
- Jamison Battle: Probable (left ankle sprain)
- Chucky Hepburn: Out (G League, two-way)
- A.J. Lawson: Out (G League, two-way)
- Alijah Martin: Out (G League, two-way)
Heat
- Tyler Herro: Available (right big toe contusion)
- Kasparas Jakucionis: Probable (left ankle soreness)
- Pelle Larsson: Out (left ankle sprain)
- Terry Rozier: Out (not with team)
RJ Barrett being out is the biggest part of this entire injury report. The Raptors have felt it, and their halfcourt attack has slipped without him.
Why The Heat Have The Advantage
It starts with the shot creation. Tyler Herro being available matters because he’s been the Heat’s cleanest scoring valve this season at 23.2 points, plus 5.0 rebounds and 2.3 assists, shooting 50.5% from the field and 40.5% from three. If his toe holds up and he’s comfortable pulling off movement, the Raptors’ defense is going to be sprinting all night.
Then you get to the not-so-fun part for the Raptors: Norman Powell is having one of those seasons where every defense looks confused. He’s at 24.6 points per game on 50.0% from the field. If he gets a couple early looks to go down, the Heat’s spacing opens up and the game starts to feel like a track meet.
Bam Adebayo is the other swing piece. He’s at 19.2 points and 8.9 rebounds on 47.8% from the field, and he’s the guy who can erase mistakes behind the play. The Raptors are going to try to live off drives and quick decisions with Immanuel Quickley and Scottie Barnes, and Bam is basically built to blow that up.
The Heat also have a very real home edge. They’re 10-3 at home, and this is the kind of game where that matters because both teams are coming in trying to stop the bleeding. Heat’s coach Erik Spoelstra even called the two teams “almost mirror imaging” in terms of style and where they’ve lived in the standings, which is a nice way of saying this matchup is going to get physical fast.
Last thing, and I think this is huge: the Heat don’t need a traditional point guard takeover to function because Davion Mitchell has given them steady playmaking. He’s averaging 7.8 assists and shooting 51.1% from the field. That’s a problem for a Raptors team that wants to pressure the ball, because if Mitchell doesn’t cough it up, the Heat will get into their sets clean and find the weak spot.
Why The Raptors Have The Advantage
The Raptors have more size and more two-way wings to throw around, and that’s the one thing that can make the Heat uncomfortable.
Scottie Barnes is the engine, and the numbers back it up. He’s averaging 19.7 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 5.3 assists while shooting 50.1% from the field. That’s the profile of a guy who can control a game without forcing it, and against the Heat, that’s usually the only way you survive.
Brandon Ingram gives them a second scorer who can get a bucket when the possession dies. He’s at 21.5 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 3.8 assists on 47.2% from the field. If Ingram hits a couple tough mid-range looks early, the Heat will start loading up, and that’s when Barnes gets easier reads as a passer.
Quickley is another key piece here. He’s averaging 16.5 points and 6.2 assists while shooting 47.0% from the field. If he can win the pace battle and get the Raptors into early offense, it reduces how much they have to grind in the halfcourt, which is where the Heat usually start taking your lunch money.
Jakob Poeltl is also quietly important because he’s one of the best “free points” bigs in the league. He’s only at 10.2 points, but he’s grabbing 8.0 rebounds and shooting 69.2% from the field. If the Raptors can punish switches and steal a few extra possessions on the glass, the math starts to tilt.
The other factor is rest and urgency. The Raptors had a rough stretch, but they did get a few days to reset after the skid, and they badly need this one to stop the slide.
Heat vs. Raptors Prediction
This game feels like it comes down to two things: can the Raptors score enough without Barrett, and can the Heat turn their home defense into easy points. Barrett’s absence has mattered for Toronto’s halfcourt flow, and that’s the exact area the Heat love to squeeze.
I’m taking the Heat, mostly because the scoring balance is nastier right now. Herro is available, Powell has been cooking all season, and Bam is the one guy on the floor who can consistently erase second chances and keep the Raptors from living at the rim.
Prediction: Heat 118, Raptors 112
