The Dallas Mavericks have had a weird season, but they finally look like a team that’s waking up. They’re 10-16, yet they’ve won five of their last six, and they’re chasing a sixth win in seven games here.
The Utah Jazz are 9-15 and still living in that “we can score, but can we string it together?” zone. The good news is they just snapped a skid with a big win, and they’ve got the kind of high-usage shot creators who can turn any game into a track meet if you let them.
This matchup comes down to one simple thing: can the Mavericks’ defense keep them afloat again while their offense tries to find consistency, or do the Jazz turn it into a scoring contest where one hot guard decides the night?
Injury Report
Mavericks
- Anthony Davis: Questionable (left calf contusion)
- Daniel Gafford: Questionable (right ankle, injury management)
- Kyrie Irving: Out (left knee surgery)
- Dereck Lively II: Out (right foot, injury management)
- D’Angelo Russell: Out (illness)
- Dante Exum: Out (right knee surgery)
Jazz
- Walker Kessler: Out (left shoulder, injury recovery)
- Georges Niang: Out (left foot, fourth metatarsal stress reaction)
- Jusuf Nurkic: Out (rest)
- Elijah Harkless: Out (G League, two-way)
Why The Mavericks Have The Advantage
The Mavericks actually know who they are right now. They hang their hat on defense, and it’s not just talk either. They are coming into this one with the seventh-best defensive rating in the league at 112.2, and that tracks with what you see on the floor: they fight, they contest, and they make teams work for clean looks.
That matters a lot against the Jazz, because they have been sloppy. They turn it over 16.4 times per game, which sits near the bottom of the league, and they shoot 34.5% from three, so they don’t exactly punish you for packing in and forcing tough decisions. If the Mavericks keep this game in the mud, they give themselves a real path to win even if the offense looks clunky for stretches.
The other big advantage is the matchup math when Anthony Davis plays. He’s listed as questionable, but when he’s available this season, he’s been the Mavericks’ most reliable two-way anchor at 20.0 points, 10.5 rebounds, and 3.2 assists on 51.7% from the field. Against a Jazz frontcourt missing Walker Kessler, that’s a potential edge that can swing the entire game, because Davis can win inside, draw extra help, and force the Jazz to rotate all night.
Even beyond Davis, the Mavericks’ role players have a clear job tonight. Klay Thompson has been up and down, but he’s shot 41.4% from three in four December games, and if that shot shows up again, the Jazz’s defense has to stretch and the Mavericks’ half-court offense looks way less painful.
One more underrated factor: even with injuries, the Mavericks are starting to get a rhythm at the guard spot. Ryan Nembhard’s production has bounced around, but the biggest issue for the Mavericks isn’t “can they defend,” it’s whether they can score enough to turn stops into separation. They’ve done that during this recent run, and that’s why they’ve stacked wins after the 5-15 start.
Why The Jazz Have The Advantage
The Jazz advantage is simple: shot creators, and the ability to make this game feel uncomfortable.
Keyonte George is the swing piece. He’s scored 27 or more in six of his last nine games, and he just exploded for 39 points in a win over the Memphis Grizzlies. That’s not a random heater, that’s a guy playing with real confidence and real volume. And the matchup is sneaky important because the Mavericks don’t have Kyrie Irving, and they’re also without D’Angelo Russell due to illness, which limits the number of bigger guard bodies they can throw at George.
Then there’s Lauri Markkanen, who’s been putting up star-level numbers at 27.6 points and 6.7 rebounds on the season. Even if the Jazz don’t shoot great from three overall, Markkanen forces defensive attention because he can score in multiple ways, and he makes it harder for the Mavericks to load up on George without giving up clean looks somewhere else.
Utah’s other “advantage” is basically emotional. They’ve played a rough season so far, but the Grizzlies win showed they can still throw a punch and close a game late when the offense clicks. If they carry that confidence into this one, they can absolutely steal it, because the Mavericks’ offense still lives on a thin line. When they go cold, it gets ugly fast.
The obvious downside is the center situation. Walker Kessler is out for the rest of the year after a shoulder injury that requires surgery, which leaves Utah piecing together the middle with different looks. That’s why the Jazz need to win with pace, pressure, and scoring, not by trying to out-muscle a team that wants to defend and grind.
Mavericks vs. Jazz Prediction
This game screams “keep it simple.” If the Mavericks control turnovers, stay attached to shooters, and force the Jazz into long possessions, they should win. The Jazz give you opportunities because of the turnovers and inconsistent shooting, and the Mavericks’ defense is built to punish that.
But if Keyonte George turns this into a microwave night again, and Markkanen gets rolling early, the Jazz can flip the script fast, especially with the Mavericks missing so much guard depth.
I’m picking the Mavericks, mostly because I trust their defense and their current momentum more than Utah’s ability to play clean for 48 minutes.
Prediction: Mavericks 116, Jazz 111
