The New Orleans Pelicans host the Los Angeles Lakers at Smoothie King Center on Tuesday, Jan. 6, with tipoff set for 8:00 PM ET.
The Lakers walk in at 22-11, sitting third in the West. The Pelicans are 8-29, dead last at 15th in the West, and they’ve been living in the mud for a while now.
The Lakers just beat the Grizzlies 120-114 on January 4th, their second straight win over them. The Pelicans are coming off a 125-106 loss to the Heat on Sunday, and that one extended the pain to seven straight losses.
This is the third meeting already, and the Lakers have controlled the season series so far. They won 118-104 on November 14, then followed it up with a 133-121 win on November 30.
This matchup is basically Luka and LeBron trying to keep pace near the top, vs. Zion and Trey Murphy trying to stop the bleeding.
Luka Doncic is putting up 33.7 points, 8.1 rebounds, and 8.7 assists a night. LeBron James is at 21.2 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 6.7 assists.
For the Pelicans, Zion Williamson is at 22.8 points, 5.9 rebounds, and 3.2 assists, and Trey Murphy III has been a legit bright spot at 20.7 points, 6.1 rebounds, and 3.5 assists.
Injury Report
Pelicans
Dejounte Murray: Out (right Achilles rupture)
Saddiq Bey: Out (right hip flexor strain)
Herbert Jones: Questionable (right ankle sprain)
Lakers
Austin Reaves: Out (left calf strain)
Rui Hachimura: Out (right calf strain)
Adou Thiero: Out (right MCL sprain)
Gabe Vincent: Questionable (lumbar back strain)
Why The Pelicans Have The Advantage
First thing, the Pelicans can punish you on the glass if you let them hang around. They’re grabbing 43.4 rebounds per game and pulling 12.6 offensive boards. The Lakers are at 41.1 rebounds and just 9.9 offensive rebounds, so this is the clearest path for the Pelicans to manufacture extra possessions.
Second, if Herbert Jones plays, it changes the entire vibe of their defense. He’s not a scorer, but he’s the guy who makes stars work. And against a team driven by Luka and LeBron hunting switches, having a real stopper matters even if it doesn’t show up in a box score.
Third, the Pelicans are actually not horrible at moving the ball. They’re at 24.6 assists per game, basically right there with what the Lakers do. If they can turn this into a “shooting rhythm” night instead of isolation and panic, they can at least keep contact.
But the swing point is simple. The Pelicans have to stop playing like they’re waiting for something bad to happen. They’ve lost seven straight, and when you’re spiraling like that, one bad five-minute stretch becomes a 20-point hole.
Why The Lakers Have The Advantage
This starts with shot quality and efficiency. The Lakers are scoring 117.3 points per game on 50.1% from the field. That’s not “pretty offense,” that’s “we get great looks because Luka runs the show and LeBron punishes mistakes.”
The Pelicans simply haven’t defended anyone consistently. They’re allowing 123.1 points per game, which is basically begging for Luka to turn this into a clinic. And when you give up that many points, you need an elite offense to survive, and the Pelicans don’t have it right now.
The other huge thing is where this game is being played on the calendar and on the court. The Lakers have been a strong road team at 12-5 away from home. The Pelicans are 6-16 at home, and they’re 2-13 on the road, which tells you they haven’t really had a “safe place” all year.
Also, the Lakers have already proven they can put points on the board against this matchup. Two wins in two meetings, and both games got into the 118+ range for the Lakers. That’s not an accident, that’s a style problem for the Pelicans.
X-Factors
Deandre Ayton is the one I’m watching first for the Lakers. He’s giving them 14.3 points and 8.4 rebounds with 1.0 blocks, and he’s shooting an absurd 70.4% from the field. If the Pelicans try to load up on Luka and LeBron, Ayton becomes the release valve that turns “good defense” into “two points anyway.”
Jake LaRavia matters more than people want to admit. He’s at 9.6 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 2.0 assists, and he’s one of those glue guys who keeps the offense flowing when the stars sit. If the Lakers win the non-Luka minutes even a little, this game is basically over.
Jarred Vanderbilt is the chaos lever. He’s only at 5.1 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 1.3 assists, but his value is in blowing up actions, flying around, and making the Pelicans feel crowded. If he turns this into a messy, physical game, the Pelicans don’t have the steady shot-making to answer.
For the Pelicans, Herbert Jones is the obvious one if he goes. He’s at 9.8 points, 3.7 rebounds, 2.4 assists, and 1.7 steals. That steal number is the real story, because the Pelicans need live-ball moments to get easy points instead of grinding half-court possessions all night.
Jose Alvarado is the tempo button. He’s putting up 8.1 points and 3.2 assists, and if he can heat up and pester the Lakers into turnovers, that’s how the Pelicans make this a fourth-quarter game. If he’s quiet, the Pelicans are stuck trying to score in a set defense, and that’s usually curtains.
Derik Queen is the big piece. He’s at 13.1 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 4.0 assists this season, and his playmaking as a big changes how the Pelicans can survive stretches when Zion sits or the offense bogs down. If Queen controls the glass and keeps the ball moving without turnovers, it gives Zion and Murphy a real chance to keep the score close.
Prediction
I’m not overthinking it. The Pelicans are in a seven-game skid, they’re giving up 123+ a night, and this is basically the worst possible opponent to face when your defense is leaking. Luka is going to hunt the weak links until the Pelicans tap out, and the Lakers’ road record tells me they don’t scare easily in spots like this.
Prediction: Lakers 124, Pelicans 112
