The Sacramento Kings host the Dallas Mavericks at Golden 1 Center on Tuesday, January 6 at 11:00 PM ET. The Mavericks are 13-23 (12th in the West), while the Kings are 8-28 (14th).
The Mavericks beat the Rockets 110-104 on Saturday, snapping a four-game losing streak. The Kings just lost 115-98 to the Bucks, and they’re dragging a five-game skid into this one.
These teams already played on December 27, and the Kings took it 113-107 to grab the early-season series lead.
Cooper Flagg enters averaging 18.9 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 4.1 assists, while Anthony Davis is at 20.4 points, 10.8 rebounds, and 2.8 assists.
On the other side, Zach LaVine is putting up 20.2 points per game, and DeMar DeRozan is at 18.3 points per game. This one matters because both teams desperately need a cleaner, steadier brand of basketball right now, and the Mavericks cannot keep bleeding road games.
Injury Report
Kings
Keegan Murray: Out (left ankle sprain)
Domantas Sabonis: Out (left knee, partial meniscus tear)
Mavericks
Kyrie Irving: Out (left knee surgery)
Dereck Lively II: Out (right foot surgery)
Dante Exum: Out (right knee surgery)
P.J. Washington: Doubtful (right ankle sprain)
Why The Kings Have The Advantage
The simplest argument is venue and vibes. The Kings are 5-12 at home, which isn’t good, but the Mavericks are 3-13 on the road, which is straight-up brutal. If you’re looking for the “why can the Kings steal this?” angle, it’s that the Mavericks haven’t traveled well at all.
The second argument is ball pressure and chaos. The Kings average 9.1 steals per game, and the Mavericks cough it up 15.4 times per game. If the Kings can turn live-ball steals into easy points, they can dodge the half-court grind where their defense usually falls apart.
And yeah, the Kings already proved they can beat this matchup once. That first meeting flipped on messy stretches from the Mavericks, and the Kings don’t need perfect basketball, they just need a few “swing” minutes where LaVine and DeRozan get downhill, and the Mavericks get impatient.
Why The Mavericks Have The Advantage
It starts with basic scoring prevention. The Mavericks are giving up 117.5 points per game, and that’s not elite, but it’s still way better than the Kings allowing 122.3 a night. That gap is basically a head start in today’s NBA.
The Mavericks also have a cleaner team profile overall. They score 113.5 points per game on 47.1% from the field, and they rebound at 44.4 per night. The Kings sit at 110.3 points per game on 45.9% shooting, and just 40.7 rebounds. That’s a lot of extra misses and extra possessions leaking into the opponent’s hands.
And with Sabonis out, the Kings’ margin for error in the paint gets even smaller. Davis plus Daniel Gafford is a real problem if the Mavericks stay disciplined and don’t turn it into a sloppy track meet.
X-Factors
Russell Westbrook sets the tone every night. He’s at 14.6 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 6.9 assists, and the Kings need his pace to stress a Mavericks team that’s been shaky on the road. If he’s forcing early shots and turnovers, though, it can snowball the wrong way instantly.
Dennis Schroder is the connector. He’s putting up 13.0 points, 3.4 rebounds, and 5.7 assists, and his job is simple: keep the Kings’ offense from stalling into bad late-clock possessions. If he wins the “point guard minutes,” the Kings can hang around longer than people expect.
Maxime Raynaud is the wild card big. He’s at 10.4 points and 6.4 rebounds, and with Sabonis out, the Kings need Raynaud to survive physically on the glass and not get erased at the rim. If he gives them steady screens, second-chance boards, and decent finishing, the Kings can keep this in the mud.
Max Christie is the classic “if this happens, the game breaks” guy for the Mavs. He’s at 8.6 points per game, and when his catch-and-shoot threes are falling, the Mavericks’ offense looks way less sticky because defenses can’t just load up on Flagg and Davis.
Daniel Gafford is the other one. He’s averaging 8.2 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 1.4 blocks, and his vertical spacing matters a ton against a Kings frontcourt that’s trying to survive without Sabonis. If Gafford wins the rim battle and stays out of foul trouble, the Kings’ driving lanes shrink fast.
Ryan Nembhard is sneaky important because he’s the stabilizer. He’s at 7.7 points and 5.1 assists, and the Mavericks need him to keep possessions organized, especially if the Kings crank up the pressure. If he’s loose with the ball, the Kings get exactly what they want: chaos and runouts.
Prediction
I’m taking the Mavericks. The Kings’ defense is just too leaky to trust, and the Mavericks have the stronger profile on both ends if they simply take care of the ball and win the paint with Davis. The road record scares you, but this is the kind of matchup where the talent edge should show.
Prediction: Mavericks 118, Kings 112
