The Oklahoma City Thunder roll in as the No. 1 seed out West with 25 wins and 2 losses, and they’ve been basically untouchable lately, winning 17 of their last 18 games.
They just smoked the Clippers 122 to 101, forced 29 turnovers, and turned that chaos into 38 points, which is exactly how they’ve been breaking teams all season.
The Minnesota Timberwolves are 17-10, sitting sixth in the conference, and their season has been quite rocky because the injury list keeps messing with their rhythm. They were flying after winning seven of eight, then dropped a game Wednesday while missing Anthony Edwards again.
From a numbers standpoint, this matchup is clean. The Thunder score 123.0 points per game and give up just 106.1, best in the league. The Wolves score 119.4 per game and allow 114.6. And the headliners are exactly who you think. Shai Gilgeous Alexander is at 32.4 points and 55.9% from the field, and Anthony Edwards is at 28.7 points and 50.0% from the field.
Injury Report
Timberwolves
Anthony Edwards: Questionable (right foot injury maintenance)
Mike Conley: Out (right Achilles tendinopathy)
Jaylen Clark: Questionable (illness)
Joan Beringer: Out (G League, on assignment)
Thunder
Jaylin Williams: Out (heel bursitis)
Isaiah Hartenstein: Out (rest)
Nikola Topic: Out (testicular surgery)
Thomas Sorber: Out (right knee surgery, torn ACL)
Why The Timberwolves Have The Advantage
It starts with the simplest thing in basketball: size that actually matters.
When Rudy Gobert is on the floor, the Wolves can survive ugly stretches because they still own the glass and they still erase easy shots at the rim. He’s at 10.2 rebounds per game and shooting 74.5% from the field, which is basically cheat code efficiency if the guards feed him anything clean. If the Wolves can win the rebound battle and keep the Thunder from getting those quick extra possessions, they can keep the score in a range that gives them a real shot late.
The other edge is the Wolves’ ability to play a physical, half-court game when they want to. They’re not trying to turn every possession into track meet basketball. They’ll grind you, they’ll make you finish through bodies, and they’ll live with a lower tempo if that’s what the matchup calls for. That matters against a Thunder team that loves turning one live-ball mistake into an instant five-point swing.
And if Edwards plays, the whole vibe changes. He’s the one guy on this roster who can take a possession that goes nowhere and still produce a clean look. Even if the Thunder throw multiple defenders at him, he’s good enough right now to make that chaos feel normal.
Why The Thunder Have The Advantage
Because they’re a machine, and the scariest part is that they don’t need “hot shooting” to bury you.
The Thunder’s defense is the story. That 29-turnover Clippers game wasn’t some random outlier energy night. It’s what they do. They pressure your handle, they jump passing lanes, and they punish every lazy decision. And once they get you playing sped up, you’re basically cooked, because their offense already sits at 123.0 points per game to begin with.
Then you get to the obvious problem: Shai. He’s scoring 32.4 a night on 55.9% from the field, which is just ridiculous for a perimeter creator who lives in the mid-range and still gets to the line whenever he wants. If Edwards sits or is limited, the Wolves don’t really have a second guy who can consistently match that shot creation possession after possession.
And it’s not just Shai either. Jalen Williams is at 17.6 points and 5.8 assists, and Chet Holmgren is at 18.9 points on 57.7% shooting. That’s why the Thunder feel unfair. You can do a solid job on the star and still get hit by the next wave.
Thunder vs. Wolves Prediction
I’m taking the Thunder, and I don’t think anyone would disagree.
The Wolves have enough size to fight, and Gobert can keep them alive for long stretches on defense, but the Thunder are too clean right now. They score too easily, they defend like psychos, and they’ve been rolling through teams like this is a postseason run in December.
If Edwards plays, I expect a tight first half and a real push in the third. If he sits or looks limited, the Thunder’s pressure is going to turn this into a messy Wolves night fast.
Prediction: Thunder 120, Wolves 112
